{"id":12437,"date":"2020-05-29T18:55:55","date_gmt":"2020-05-29T10:55:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-productionenv-bjg9h2g2bgg5b8aa.southeastasia-01.azurewebsites.net\/news\/managers-weigh-weather-odds-in-deciding-next-crew-dragon-launch-attempt\/"},"modified":"2020-05-29T18:55:55","modified_gmt":"2020-05-29T10:55:55","slug":"managers-weigh-weather-odds-in-deciding-next-crew-dragon-launch-attempt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/news\/managers-weigh-weather-odds-in-deciding-next-crew-dragon-launch-attempt\/","title":{"rendered":"Managers weigh weather odds in deciding next Crew Dragon launch attempt"},"content":{"rendered":"
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SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon spacecraft stand on pad 39A Friday. Credit: Walter Scriptunas II \/ Spaceflight Now<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Mission managers are weighing a motley mix of weather models, safety criteria and astronaut workload considerations as they decide when SpaceX\u2019s Crew Dragon spacecraft might have the best chance to launch from the Kennedy Space Center.<\/p>\n

The launch could occur as soon as Saturday, when the Crew Dragon\u2019s first piloted test flight has an opportunity to lift off from pad 39A at 3:22:45 p.m. EDT (1922:45 GMT). Each day\u2019s launch time is determined by when the Earth\u2019s rotation brings pad 39A under the orbital ground track of the International Space Station, the mission\u2019s destination.<\/p>\n

Launch opportunities move around 22-to-23 minutes earlier each day.<\/p>\n

NASA astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken will ride into orbit on the Crew Dragon spacecraft atop SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 rocket. The launch will mark the first crewed flight into orbit from U.S. soil since the space shuttle was retired in 2011.<\/p>\n

There are 50\/50 odds of acceptable weather for launch of the Crew Dragon spacecraft Saturday, according to the U.S. Space Force\u2019s 45th Weather Squadron. Slightly better weather is in the forecast Sunday, when there\u2019s a 60 percent chance of favorable conditions for liftoff at 3 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT).<\/p>\n

SpaceX and NASA officials completed a \u201cdelta\u201d Launch Readiness Review on Friday and determined the Falcon 9 rocket, Crew Dragon capsule and ground systems were ready for another launch attempt Saturday.<\/p>\n

But officials planned to meet again Saturday morning before go ahead with further launch preparations, such as having the astronauts put on their flight suits and head to the launch pad.<\/p>\n

\u201cTeams still want more weather data to determine if they will proceed with a launch attempt (Saturday) or focus on the backup attempt on Sunday, May 31,\u201d NASA said in an update posted online late Friday.<\/p>\n

Forecasters expect a drier weather pattern next week, potentially leading to more favorable conditions for launch.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re actually looking a little further out, and the weather is starting to improve early next week,\u201d said Capt. Jason Fontenot, Space Lift Weather Operations Flight Commander at the 45th Weather Squadron, which provides forecast services for launch companies operating at Cape Canaveral.<\/p>\n

If the Crew Dragon takes off Saturday, the capsule would link up with the space station at 10:29 a.m. EDT (1429 GMT) Sunday. A launch Sunday would result in a docking with the space station around 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) Monday.<\/p>\n

Not only will officials consider the weather at the launch site \u2014 such as lightning, winds, cloud cover and precipitation \u2014 mission managers will also assess conditions at more than 50 locations in the Atlantic Ocean downrange from the Kennedy Space Center.<\/p>\n

Officials want to ensure ground winds and sea states are within limits in case the Crew Dragon spacecraft has to perform an escape maneuver during launch. The escape burn would push the capsule off its Falcon 9 launcher in the event of an in-flight failure, resulting in the splashdown of the spacecraft and its crew along the mission\u2019s downrange corridor heading northeast from Cape Canaveral along the East Coast of the United States and Canada.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also an option for the Crew Dragon to abort and splash down off the coast of Ireland, and officials will monitor weather conditions all along the trajectory.<\/p>\n

In a teleconference with reporters Friday, Fontenot said the weather at the downrange abort locations appear \u201cfairly favorable\u201d this weekend. But that could change based on real-time measurements from buoys in the Atlantic Ocean.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have a really complicated way of weighting different locations, depending on how much risk they have in terms of an escape,\u201d said Hans Koenigsmann, SpaceX\u2019s vice president of build and flight reliability. \u201cFor the landing, there are also special parameters: winds, waves and wave direction.<\/p>\n

\u201cSome of these individually have to go \u2018green\u2019 and be a \u2018go,\u2019 and then on the entire launch corridor we have a common risk number that we use to basically make an assessment, and then get to a go\/no go decision,\u201d Koenigsmann said in a press conference Monday.<\/p>\n

SpaceX also would like to have good weather for landing of the Falcon 9 rocket\u2019s first stage booster after the Crew Dragon launch. The booster will target a touchdown on a drone ship several hundred miles northeast of the Kennedy Space Center, allowing SpaceX to recover and reuse the vehicle.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen we balance all of these things, there is always, always, always going to be uncertainty,\u201d Bridenstine said.<\/p>\n

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This map illustrates the ground track for the Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 rocket heading northeast from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The red zone \u2014 called the Downrange Abort Exclusion Zone \u2014 in the North Atlantic Ocean is a region where the control teams want to avoid Ann abort due to cold water temperatures and rough seas. Credit: NASA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

If winds are blowing from the east, officials will have to ensure the gusts are not strong enough to blow the Crew Dragon back on land if it has to activate its escape engines before liftoff. In that event, the capsule is supposed to propel itself off the rocket and parachute into the Atlantic just offshore.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you talk about launching to the International Space Station, your launch window is not a window at all,\u201d Bridenstine said. \u201cIt\u2019s instantaneous and if you don\u2019t meet it, you don\u2019t go. So you have to have all these things met ahead of time.\u201d<\/p>\n

NASA officials prefer to launch the Crew Dragon spacecraft on a course that would enable the capsule to dock with the space station less than 24 hours after liftoff \u2014 a scenario known as a Flight Day 2 rendezvous. But that\u2019s feasible with only some launch opportunities, when the space station\u2019s location in its orbit at the time of the Dragon\u2019s launch makes for a shorter trip.<\/p>\n

The Crew Dragon\u2019s next launch opportunity after Sunday would be Tuesday, June 2. A launch on that day would result in a Flight Day 3 rendezvous, and NASA officials said they would carefully evaluate the weather forecast for subsequent days before proceeding with a launch attempt resulting in a Flight Day 3 rendezvous with the space station.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the time to (the space station) is 15-to-20 hours, that\u2019s kind of the sweet spot because they can get on orbit, they can get some rest, and then they can dock with the International Space Station,\u201d Bridenstine said.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, SpaceX has requested a backup launch date Tuesday to protect that opportunity, NASA said.<\/p>\n

Bridenstine said NASA and SpaceX will also look at whether it\u2019s smart to try to launch on two consecutive days.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to start considering the human factors of that,\u201d he said. \u201cThe human factors end up adding some risk as well because it wears everybody out, including our astronauts, although they never complain. We want to make sure that everyone is well-rested and ready to go.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here is a list of upcoming launch opportunities for the Crew Dragon Demo-2 mission:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Saturday, May 30: <\/strong>3:22 p.m. EDT (1922 GMT)<\/li>\n
  • Sunday, May 31: <\/strong>3:00 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT)<\/li>\n
  • Tuesday, June 2: <\/strong>2:13 p.m. EDT (1813 GMT) \u2014 Flight Day 3 rendezvous<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n
  • Wednesday, June 3: <\/strong>1:48 p.m. EDT (1748 GMT)<\/li>\n
  • Thursday, June 4: <\/strong>1:25 p.m. EDT (1725 GMT)<\/li>\n
  • Saturday, June 6: <\/strong>12:40 p.m. EDT (1640 GMT) \u2014 Flight Day 3 rendezvous<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n
  • Sunday, June 7: <\/strong>12:14 p.m. EDT (1614 GMT)<\/li>\n
  • Monday, June 8: <\/strong>11:52 a.m. EDT (1552 GMT)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    An initial launch attempt for the Crew Dragon\u2019s Demo-2 test flight Wednesday was scrubbed by the threat of lightning less than 20 minutes before the appointed launch time.<\/p>\n

    \u201cOur highest priority is, and always has been, Bob and Doug,\u201d said NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine in a press conference Friday. \u201cOf course, a couple of days ago, we had too much electricity in the atmosphere..\u201d<\/p>\n

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    Astronauts Doug Hurley (left) and Bob Behnken (right) walk out of crew quarters at the Kennedy Space Center for Wednesday\u2019s Crew Dragon launch attempt. Credit: NASA\/Bill Ingalls<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence were at the Kennedy Space Center for Wednesday\u2019s launch attempt. They both plan to return to the Florida spaceport if mission managers decide to press ahead with a launch attempt Saturday.<\/p>\n

    Bridenstine said the visits from Trump and Pence has not added any pressure to launch the Demo-2 mission.<\/p>\n

    \u201cWe have all been in agreement that there will be no pressure,\u201d Bridenstine said Friday. \u201cWe will launch when we are ready \u2026 When we do this again Saturday, if we do it again Sunday, we will feel no pressure. We will go when we are ready. Safety is our highest priority.\u201d<\/p>\n

    On Wednesday\u2019s launch attempt, SpaceX\u2019s launch team strapped Hurley and Behnken into the Crew Dragon spacecraft, closed the hatch, and began fueling the Falcon 9 rocket with super-chilled kerosene and liquid oxygen. It was the first time astronauts were aboard the spacecraft during fueling of the launch vehicle.<\/p>\n

    The crew also armed the Dragon\u2019s launch abort system, which would use the ship\u2019s SuperDraco rocket engines to propel away from the Falcon 9 rocket in the event an emergency during fueling, or during the climb into orbit.<\/p>\n

    \u201cWe had done a dry dress rehearsal. We had never done a wet dress rehearsal, so getting from position of fueling the rocket and arming the launch abort system and these kind of things that we went through, and then de-fueling \u2026 there were learning opportunities there,\u201d Bridenstine said. \u201cWe\u2019re always gathering data. The rocket was ready to go, the crew capsule was ready to go, all the ground systems were working according to plan.\u201d<\/p>\n