{"id":17862,"date":"2019-12-08T01:04:14","date_gmt":"2019-12-07T17:04:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-productionenv-bjg9h2g2bgg5b8aa.southeastasia-01.azurewebsites.net\/news\/satellite-mega-constellations-stir-a-debate-over-avoiding-catastrophic-orbital-crashes\/"},"modified":"2019-12-08T01:04:14","modified_gmt":"2019-12-07T17:04:14","slug":"satellite-mega-constellations-stir-a-debate-over-avoiding-catastrophic-orbital-crashes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/news\/satellite-mega-constellations-stir-a-debate-over-avoiding-catastrophic-orbital-crashes\/","title":{"rendered":"Satellite mega-constellations stir a debate over avoiding catastrophic orbital crashes"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_536894\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-536894\" style=\"width: 630px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full-width wp-image-536894\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/191207-starlink-630x478.jpg\" alt=\"Starlink trails\" width=\"630\" height=\"478\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/191207-starlink-630x478.jpg 630w, https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/191207-starlink-1260x956.jpg 1260w, https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/191207-starlink-768x583.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/191207-starlink.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\"><figcaption data-nosnippet=\"\" id=\"caption-attachment-536894\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">An image of the NGC 5353\/4 galaxy group, made with a telescope at Arizona\u2019s Lowell Observatory on May 25, shows the trails of reflected light left by SpaceX\u2019s freshly launched Starlink satellites as they pass through the telescope\u2019s field of view. The brightness diminishes once the satellites reach their intended altitude. (Lowell Observatory Photo via IAU \/ Victoria Girgis)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The retired commander of the U.S. Strategic Command says the tens of thousands of satellites that SpaceX, OneWeb and Amazon are planning to put into orbit over the next few years will require a new automated system for space traffic management \u2014 and perhaps new satellite hardware requirements as well.<\/p>\n<p>Retired Gen. Kevin Chilton laid out his ideas for dealing with potentially catastrophic orbital traffic jams at the University of Washington on Friday, during the inaugural symposium presented by UW\u2019s Space Policy and Research Center.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe need to develop technologies that will improve space domain awareness, that will enable autonomous systems onboard satellites to automatically maneuver so as to avoid collision with another satellite, or with a known piece of man-made debris,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The issue is expected to become increasingly critical as commercial ventures deploy more satellites into low Earth orbit, or LEO, to widen broadband internet access to the billions of people around the world who are currently underserved. An estimated 2,200 active satellites are in orbit today, but if all the plans come to pass, that figure could go beyond 45,000 in the years ahead.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to the commercial applications, LEO constellations could have national security applications. \u201cThe Department of Defense is talking about it for both global missile warning and to have a system that can track what we see coming down the road, which is hypersonic intercontinental re-entry vehicles,\u201d Chilton said.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, one of the funders for SpaceX\u2019s Starlink constellation happens to be the Air Force Research Laboratory, which kicked in $28.7 million last year to run data connectivity demonstrations.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"How Will Elon Musk\u2019s Starlink Deliver Internet Around the Globe?\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KENaDXdm1sg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen=\"\" data-ratio=\"0.5625\" data-width=\"800\" data-height=\"450\" style=\"display: block; margin: 0px; width: 800px; height: 450px;\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>SpaceX has already launched 120 of its Starlink satellites, which are built at the company\u2019s facilities in Redmond, Wash. Hundreds more of the satellites are due to be launched in advance of the start of limited service next year.<\/p>\n<p>Some observers \u2014 including Chilton \u2014 aren\u2019t fully convinced that commercial mega-constellations will be as profitable as their builders anticipate.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI\u2019m still questioning the business case,\u201d Chilton said. \u201cI still haven\u2019t figured out how you make money doing what they\u2019re proposing. The best I can tell, the people in the world today that can afford laptop computers and connectivity to the internet are connected. The people who can\u2019t, won\u2019t be able to connect to the satellite constellation. I don\u2019t know, I\u2019m not a businessman.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Today the Los Angeles Times quoted SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell as saying that the company will take pre-sales for customer service, adopting a strategy that CEO Elon Musk has used for electric cars at Tesla, his other multibillion-dollar venture. Amazon\u2019s Project Kuiper, meanwhile, is likely to follow a different business model: using its satellite data service to boost online sales well as its AWS cloud service, Alexa AI services and Amazon Prime Video.<\/p>\n<p>However the business model works out, Chilton said the proliferation of mega-constellations will require better coordination. Satellite collisions could add dramatically to the traffic problems posed by orbital debris, and September\u2019s close encounter between a SpaceX Starlink satellite and a European wind-monitoring satellite highlighted the risk.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAt least let\u2019s have them talking to each other while they\u2019re up there, electronically,\u201d Chilton said. \u201cLet\u2019s have them transmitting their positions. Let\u2019s make sure there\u2019s a central location that knows their position, so that when we launch \u2026 we know where they are, we know how to safely deconflict.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Some steps are being taken already: The U.S. Commerce Department is working on the creation of an open-architecture data repository that draws upon data from the Air Force and other sources to keep track of satellites more precisely and identify potential problems further in advance. The European Space Agency, meanwhile, is talking about using machine learning to automate space traffic management.<\/p>\n<p>Another issue has to do with the impact of mega-constellations on the night sky. In May, when SpaceX started launching Starlink satellites in batches of 60, astronomers were horrified to discover how much they interfered with their observations.<\/p>\n<p>Chilton noted that satellite interference could degrade the capabilities of observatories in which tens of millions of dollars have been invested. \u201cIt\u2019s a problem they have to address,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>Space News quoted SpaceX\u2019s Shotwell as saying the next batch of 60 Starlink satellites, due for launch as early as this month, will include one spacecraft that\u2019s been treated with a coating to make it less reflective and less likely to interfere.<\/p>\n<p>Shotwell said that no one at SpaceX thought the satellites\u2019 glare would pose a problem in advance of the first 60-satellite launch. Now SpaceX is using \u201ctrial-and-error to figure out the best way to get this done,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>The trial-and-error approach is required because making the satellites less reflective could change the satellites\u2019 thermal performance in undesirable ways, Shotwell said. Chilton agreed with that assessment of the challenge: \u201cMostly they\u2019re silver for a reason,\u201d he told GeekWire.<\/p>\n<p>In a blog post, the American Astronomical Society\u2019s Kelsie Krafton said an AAS working group has been meeting with representatives of SpaceX and other satellite industry players, as well as with policymakers and other scientists.<\/p>\n<p>Krafton said the talks are \u201cmoving in a hopeful direction.\u201d The working group is currently conducting a survey of research observatories to get a sense of the brightness level that SpaceX should be targeting for its satellites.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAll of our options for impact mitigation will require iterative processes,\u201d she said. \u201cUntil we have collected the survey data, we and SpaceX will proceed as if satisfying the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope\u2019s needs is the high bar to aim for.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The $473 million Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, currently under construction in Chile, is expected to help revolutionize ground-based astronomy when it goes into operation in the 2020s. A decade ago, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and former Microsoft executive Charles Simonyi contributed a total of $30 million to support its creation. Today, UW\u2019s DIRAC Institute is managing the development of analytical tools for the flood of data that the LSST is expected to produce.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An image of the NGC 5353\/4 galaxy group, made with a telescope at Arizona\u2019s Lowell Observatory on May 25, shows the trails of reflected light left by SpaceX\u2019s freshly launched Starlink satellites as they pass through the telescope\u2019s field of view. The brightness diminishes once the satellites reach their intended altitude. (Lowell Observatory Photo via [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[20,442,440,4368],"class_list":["post-17862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-satellite","tag-satellites","tag-starlink","tag-university-of-washington"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17862"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17862"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17862\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}