{"id":18260,"date":"2018-11-26T00:43:23","date_gmt":"2018-11-25T16:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-productionenv-bjg9h2g2bgg5b8aa.southeastasia-01.azurewebsites.net\/news\/elon-musk-says-theres-a-70-percent-chance-hell-move-to-mars-and-possibly-die-there\/"},"modified":"2018-11-26T00:43:23","modified_gmt":"2018-11-25T16:43:23","slug":"elon-musk-says-theres-a-70-percent-chance-hell-move-to-mars-and-possibly-die-there","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/news\/elon-musk-says-theres-a-70-percent-chance-hell-move-to-mars-and-possibly-die-there\/","title":{"rendered":"Elon Musk says there\u2019s a 70 percent chance he\u2019ll move to Mars (and possibly die there)"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_463765\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-463765\" style=\"width: 630px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full-width wp-image-463765\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181125-musk-630x380.jpg\" alt=\"Axios interview with Elon Musk\" width=\"630\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181125-musk-630x380.jpg 630w, https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181125-musk-768x463.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181125-musk-1260x759.jpg 1260w, https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181125-musk.jpg 1723w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\"><figcaption data-nosnippet=\"\" id=\"caption-attachment-463765\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Axios\u2019 Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen interview SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. (Axios \/ HBO via YouTube)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As NASA prepares for its next Mars landing on Monday, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is giving himself a 70 percent chance of moving to Mars. But in an Axios interview airing tonight on HBO, he emphasizes that it won\u2019t be a billionaire joyride.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYour probability of dying on Mars is much higher than Earth. Really, the ad for going to Mars would be like Shackleton\u2019s ad for going to the Antarctic,\u201d Musk said, referring to explorer Ernest Shackleton\u2019s harrowing 1914-1917 expedition. (The apocryphal ad supposedly was headlined&nbsp;\u201cMen Wanted for Hazardous Journey.\u201d)<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s going to be hard,\u201d Musk said. \u201cThere\u2019s a good chance of death, going in a little can through deep space. You might land successfully. Once you land successfully, you\u2019ll be working nonstop to build the base. \u2026 There\u2019s a good chance you die there. We think you can come back, but we\u2019re not sure. Now, does that sound like an escape hatch for rich people?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He compared the allure to the attraction that Mount Everest holds for mountain climbers: \u201cThey like doing it for the challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>And if Musk\u2019s vision for the next decade holds true, going to Mars will cost \u201ca couple hundred thousand dollars\u201d&nbsp;\u2014 which is still four to five times as expensive as an Everest expedition, but way cheaper than the $80 million that the Russians have charged for trips to the International Space Station.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"SpaceX CEO Elon Musk sees 70% chance he'll go to Mars\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Dfg1n7Lh62Q?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen=\"\" data-ratio=\"0.5625\" data-width=\"800\" data-height=\"450\" style=\"display: block; margin: 0px; width: 800px; height: 450px;\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Musk is consistently optimistic on timelines and costs, so it\u2019s best not to hold him too closely to the estimates he provided in the Axios interview. But he tends to be conservative about the percentages he cites in his off-the-cuff risk assessments. For example, he gave SpaceX\u2019s Falcon Heavy rocket&nbsp;only a 50-50 chance of full success on its maiden launch, which turned out to be a triumph&nbsp;on the following day.<\/p>\n<p>He has also said he gave SpaceX only a 10 percent chance of succeeding when he started the company 16 years ago, and that bet didn\u2019t turn out so badly. The privately held company is currently valued at somewhere around $28 billion&nbsp;(although its latest effort to secure what turned out to be a $250 million loan sparked controversy).<\/p>\n<p>All of which means the 47-year-old Musk is feeling good about his chances of making it to the Red Planet. And the chances are much higher for NASA\u2019s Mars Insight lander, which is expected to touch down just before noon PT Monday on a flat Martian plain known as Elysium Planitia.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"callout clearfix\"><strong>Your guide to InSight<\/strong>: How to watch the Mars landing, and what to watch for<\/h4>\n<p>Mars Insight is designed to monitor the Red Planet\u2019s seismic activity and heat flow, and to gather data that will give scientists more insight into what Mars is made of.<\/p>\n<p>Today the&nbsp; spacecraft executed its last course correction maneuver, shifting its anticipated landing point about 11 miles to aim for the center of the targeted landing ellipse.<\/p>\n<p>The lander is designed to slow its descent using an aeroshell, a parachute and a set of 12 landing thrusters. Even with all that technology, the chances of success aren\u2019t 100 percent: One need only look at the Mars Polar Lander crash of 1999 to see what could go wrong.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI am completely excited and completely nervous all at the same time, because everything that we\u2019ve done to date makes us feel comfortable and confident we\u2019re going to land on Mars,\u201d InSight project manager Tom Hoffman told reporters today at NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. \u201cBut everything has to go perfectly, and Mars could always throw us a curveball.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s a good piece of advice for Musk to keep in mind when he\u2019s sizing up the odds.<\/p>\n<p>NASA\u2019s coverage of the landing starts at 11 a.m. PT, and you can watch the show via NASA\u2019s YouTube channel:<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"NASA Live: Official Stream of NASA TV\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/wwMDvPCGeE0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen=\"\" data-ratio=\"0.5625\" data-width=\"800\" data-height=\"450\" style=\"display: block; margin: 0px; width: 800px; height: 450px;\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Axios\u2019 Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen interview SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. (Axios \/ HBO via YouTube) As NASA prepares for its next Mars landing on Monday, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is giving himself a 70 percent chance of moving to Mars. But in an Axios interview airing tonight on HBO, he emphasizes that it won\u2019t [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4969,1045,927,367,316],"class_list":["post-18260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-axios","tag-elon-musk","tag-insight","tag-mars","tag-spacex"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18260"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18260\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}