{"id":19227,"date":"2016-09-29T01:22:46","date_gmt":"2016-09-28T17:22:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-productionenv-bjg9h2g2bgg5b8aa.southeastasia-01.azurewebsites.net\/news\/reality-check-elon-musks-mars-plan-will-cost-more-take-longer-what-else-is-new\/"},"modified":"2016-09-29T01:22:46","modified_gmt":"2016-09-28T17:22:46","slug":"reality-check-elon-musks-mars-plan-will-cost-more-take-longer-what-else-is-new","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/news\/reality-check-elon-musks-mars-plan-will-cost-more-take-longer-what-else-is-new\/","title":{"rendered":"Reality check: Elon Musk\u2019s Mars plan will cost more, take longer. What else is new?"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_278409\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-278409\" style=\"width: 630px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full-width wp-image-278409\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/160928-mars-view-musk-630x345.jpg\" alt=\"Mars spaceship\" width=\"630\" height=\"345\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/160928-mars-view-musk-630x345.jpg 630w, https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/160928-mars-view-musk-768x421.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cdn.geekwire.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/160928-mars-view-musk.jpg 1225w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\"><figcaption data-nosnippet=\"\" id=\"caption-attachment-278409\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">An artist\u2019s conception shows a traveler looking out at Mars through the window of SpaceX\u2019s future passenger spaceship. (Credit: SpaceX)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>GUADALAJARA, Mexico \u2013&nbsp;In order to make the figures work for Elon Musk\u2019s plan to put settlers on Mars, SpaceX will have to build boosters and interplanetary spaceships for less than the price&nbsp;of a Boeing 777x jet, on a shorter time frame.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s more,&nbsp;Musk is aiming to ramp up to building 1,000 of those spaceships. That\u2019s three times the number of 777x orders to date.<\/p>\n<p>The comparisons between&nbsp;Boeing\u2019s next airplane and SpaceX\u2019s ultimate spaceship suggest Musk is overly optimistic about what it\u2019ll take to get a million settlers to Mars by the end of the century.<\/p>\n<p>So what else is new?<\/p>\n<p>Based on past estimates, SpaceX should have started flying astronauts into orbit two years ago. Another one of Musk\u2019s ventures, Tesla Motors, should have delivered its first Model X electric car in 2013.<\/p>\n<p>Even Musk acknowledged during this week\u2019s presentation to the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara that he tends to lean forward in his expectations.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTimelines \u2026 I\u2019m not the best at this sort of thing,\u201d he said, drawing chuckles from the 3,000 attendees.<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"SpaceX Interplanetary Transport System\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/0qo78R_yYFA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen=\"\" data-ratio=\"0.5625\" data-width=\"800\" data-height=\"450\" style=\"display: block; margin: 0px; width: 800px; height: 450px;\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The timeline he displayed on the big screen called for the first big spaceship&nbsp;to be sent to Mars by 2023, just seven years from now. In comparison, it\u2019s taking Boeing eight years to go from 2012\u2019s&nbsp;first announcements about the 777x to the first anticipated deliveries by&nbsp;2020.<\/p>\n<p>Musk backed away from 2023 in his remarks, saying only that the first flight could occur&nbsp;in a 10-year time frame \u201cif things go super-well.\u201d As SpaceX found out this month, things don\u2019t always go super-well.<\/p>\n<p>Affordability is another squishy issue: Musk said the price of a ticket could eventually go as low as $100,000, depending on how much luggage the ticket-buyers take with them.&nbsp;But that\u2019s predicated on a cost structure that assumes hardware can be built at the cost of $200 million per spaceship, $230 million per booster and $130 million per tanker.<\/p>\n<p>To some, those figures seem unrealistic, especially when you compare it to the list price for a top-of-the-line 777x ($400 million) or 747 ($379 million). To be fair, Musk chose a cheaper Boeing jet, the $80 million 737, for his own comparison. Nevertheless, it set rocket scientist Jonathan Goff to wondering. \u201cColor me extremely skeptical,\u201d he wrote in a blog post that expands upon a series of tweets:<\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allowtransparency=\"true\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" class=\"\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden; width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block; flex-grow: 1;\" title=\"X Post\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=b0yle&amp;dnt=true&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=780960185888051200&amp;lang=en&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.geekwire.com%2F2016%2Freality-check-elon-musk-mars-plan%2F&amp;sessionId=93aaa20c2c5f40a11893ee2b02bf16b4dd36bd07&amp;siteScreenName=geekwire&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=6a3ad42b224df%3A1778106238597&amp;width=550px\" data-tweet-id=\"780960185888051200\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\" data-twitter-extracted-i1782804076930879297=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Am I the only one who finds this a wee bit optimistic? 747s are produced on an assembly line at far higher rates, are far less complex 2\/n<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Jonathan A. Goff (@rocketrepreneur) September 28, 2016<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Despite the skepticism, Goff says Musk\u2019s plan seems more affordable than anyone else\u2019s. He figures the ticket price would be in the range of $5 million, which is less than a tenth of the Russians\u2019 price for a flight to the International Space Station.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile I think Elon doesn\u2019t have an architecture that really gets down into the \u2018cost of a median US house\u2019 range, he is getting into a range that a lot of people could afford,\u201d Goff&nbsp;writes. \u201cHaving a Mars architecture this affordable would still be absolutely amazing, even if I think it could be done better.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>How would the passengers fare? Some of the classic worries&nbsp;about long-duration spaceflight \u2013 such as the health effects of weightlessness and space radiation exposure \u2013&nbsp;might not be as worrisome if&nbsp;settlers can get&nbsp;to Mars in 80 days rather than the oft-quoted figure of 260 days.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"icon-quotes-left\"><\/span>&nbsp;Just as we have a permanent science base in Antarctica, I can imagine having a science base on Mars.<span class=\"icon-quotes-right\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Astronauts on the space station routinely spend four to six months in zero-G, and are able to stave off muscle loss and bone loss through exercise. Would-be Mars settlers will just have to make sure to work&nbsp;a couple of hours of treadmill time and resistance exercise into their daily routine.<\/p>\n<p>Radiation is more of an unknown. The ill effects can be minimized by positioning the spaceship to shield its occupants from the sun\u2019s blast and setting up a special&nbsp;shelter from radiation storms. Some have even suggested using onboard water, supplies and, yes, poop as shielding material.<\/p>\n<p>During his talk, Musk said \u201cthere\u2019s going to be some risk of radiation, but it\u2019s not deadly.\u201d That\u2019s mostly true. Settlers are likely to face a heightened cancer risk. Beyond that, the state of the research is&nbsp;fuzzier.<\/p>\n<p>Considering the challenging environment they\u2019d face on Mars, how eager will a million people be to settle on Mars? Musk says plenty of people will be eager to settle a new world, but Bill Nye (the Science Guy) isn\u2019t sure&nbsp;about that.<\/p>\n<p>Nye, who is CEO of the nonprofit Planetary Society,&nbsp;thinks the vibe&nbsp;will ultimately be more akin to that of a research base in Antarctica&nbsp;\u2013 scientifically valuable and worth the effort, but not a fun place to live.<\/p>\n<p>And then there are the Martians to consider.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s an exciting time for space. Just as we have a permanent science base in Antarctica, I can imagine having a science base on Mars,\u201d Nye said in emailed comments. \u201cBut before we set foot, let\u2019s investigate any ecosystem that may exist there. A discovery of Martian life would change the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Musk and his supporters would argue that Martian microbes shouldn\u2019t stand in the way of turning humanity into a multiplanetary species, due to the doomsday&nbsp;risks we face on our own fragile planet. Such risks range from an asteroid strike to a&nbsp;climate meltdown to an&nbsp;AI&nbsp;apocalypse.<\/p>\n<p>That may well be the ultimate reality check: How much effort should be spent on terraforming Mars vs. protecting Earth and its occupants?<\/p>\n<p>Science-fiction author William Gibson shared&nbsp;an interesting take on that question via Twitter:<\/p>\n<p><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-1\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allowtransparency=\"true\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" class=\"\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden; width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block; flex-grow: 1;\" title=\"X Post\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=b0yle&amp;dnt=true&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-1&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=781140779976626178&amp;lang=en&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.geekwire.com%2F2016%2Freality-check-elon-musk-mars-plan%2F&amp;sessionId=93aaa20c2c5f40a11893ee2b02bf16b4dd36bd07&amp;siteScreenName=geekwire&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=6a3ad42b224df%3A1778106238597&amp;width=550px\" data-tweet-id=\"781140779976626178\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\" data-twitter-extracted-i1782804076930879297=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I would be much more excited by an Elon Musk plan to terraform Earth<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 William Gibson (@GreatDismal) September 28, 2016<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An artist\u2019s conception shows a traveler looking out at Mars through the window of SpaceX\u2019s future passenger spaceship. (Credit: SpaceX) GUADALAJARA, Mexico \u2013&nbsp;In order to make the figures work for Elon Musk\u2019s plan to put settlers on Mars, SpaceX will have to build boosters and interplanetary spaceships for less than the price&nbsp;of a Boeing 777x [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1045,367,4950,4653,316],"class_list":["post-19227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-elon-musk","tag-mars","tag-mars-colonial-transporter","tag-mars-colonies","tag-spacex"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19227"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19227\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}