Commercial spaceflight has been hot in the past year. Rocket launches, satellite constellations, low-orbit Internet, there is new news almost every day. From policy to capital, from equity financing to the stock market, the concept of commercial aerospace is highly sought after.<\/p>\n
However, it is difficult to find a real commercial aerospace company stock in A-shares.<\/p>\n
Today we will talk about: China\u2019s commercial aerospace is so popular, why is there no corresponding company in the capital market?<\/p>\n
01<\/p>\n
Commercial aerospace concept stocks<\/p>\n
There is a clear mismatch between the \u201caerospace companies\u201d in the current capital market and the core capabilities of the commercial aerospace industry. This is not to say that listed companies are “bad”, but that most of them cannot fully represent the “commercial aerospace” thing itself.<\/p>\n
Nowadays, listed companies labeled as \u201caerospace\u201d in the capital market can be roughly divided into three categories:<\/p>\n
Category 1: Aerospace Concept Company<\/p>\n
This is the largest category, and they usually have some aerospace-related businesses, such as providing parts and components, participating in supporting links, or having a historical aerospace background.<\/p>\n
But aerospace is not their core business or main source of income. These so-called “commercial aerospace targets” are only slightly related to commercial aerospace. In essence, this is the capital market using “marginal capabilities” to map a “core industry.”<\/p>\n
One of the most typical examples occurred on December 16, 2025. On that day, many A-share listed companies issued intensive risk announcements, saying that “the main business does not involve commercial aerospace” or “the company’s products are not directly used in commercial aerospace.” The most iconic among them are several listed companies named “aerospace” – aerospace information, aerospace engineering, aerospace Changfeng, etc., all of which made it clear after the stock price surged that the company’s main business does not involve commercial aerospace, and they have no investment plans to engage in commercial aerospace in the near future.<\/p>\n
Category 2: Asset-based platforms of the state-owned system<\/p>\n
Most of these companies rely on mature aerospace systems such as aerospace science and technology and aerospace science and industry, with stable business, complete systems and strong technical capabilities. According to statistics, China Aerospace Science and Technology Group has 14 domestic and overseas listed companies, covering rockets, satellites and other aspects.<\/p>\n
However, these listed companies are often only “part of the assets” in the system, rather than complete capabilities.<\/p>\n
The core capabilities of China’s aerospace industry have long been based on the national mission-oriented closed-loop system, but when it is put on the market, it often only takes a certain link (such as part of satellite manufacturing, rocket parts production, etc.). Although such companies are stable and have strong technology, they represent “part of the national system” rather than an independent commercial aerospace company aiming for market-oriented profits, and their growth flexibility is relatively limited.<\/p>\n
Category 3: Companies close to commercial aerospace<\/p>\n
Companies that are truly close to the definition of “commercial aerospace” usually have clear business models and continuous market orders, and their business revolves around rocket launches, satellite manufacturing or satellite applications.<\/p>\n
However, such companies account for a very small proportion of listed companies and have not yet formed a sector. The commercial aerospace industry chain covers the five major links of “satellites, rockets, fields, testing, and use”. High-quality private entities in upstream core components, midstream launch services, and downstream application services are either in the early stages of development and have not reached listing standards, or are still in the IPO application or coaching stage, and have not yet officially entered the capital market.<\/p>\n
02<\/p>\n
Why does this dislocation occur?<\/p>\n
The reason is actually not complicated. The core is two points:<\/p>\n
1. China\u2019s commercial aerospace industry has not yet reached the listing stage. Real commercial companies are still in the primary market.<\/p>\n
Commercial aerospace is essentially a long-term, asset-heavy, high-tech industry. Today, most of the core companies in the industry are still in the stages of technology verification, engineering implementation, and business model exploration.<\/p>\n
Blue Arrow Aerospace’s IPO on the Science and Technology Innovation Board was accepted at the end of 2025, with a valuation of about 20 billion yuan. However, it suffered a cumulative loss of about 3.2 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024. In terms of technology investment, from 2022 to the first half of 2025 alone, its research and development bills were 487 million yuan, 830 million yuan, 613 million yuan, and 360 million yuan respectively. In addition to Blue Arrow Aerospace, almost all other rocket companies that have started the IPO process, such as Tianbing Technology, China Science and Technology Aerospace, Interstellar Glory, and Galaxy Power, are in a state of loss.<\/p>\n
Core commercial aerospace companies are far from reaching the stage of stable profitability and can only be listed through special policies. Most of them are still in the process.<\/p>\n
At this point, data can best illustrate the problem. In 2025, a total of 140 financing events occurred in China’s commercial aerospace sector, with a disclosed amount of approximately 16.342 billion yuan. Most of this money is still circulating in the primary market.<\/p>\n
In June 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will include commercial aerospace into the fifth set of listing standards for the Science and Technology Innovation Board, allowing companies that are not yet profitable but have core technologies to go public. This policy just shows that real commercial aerospace companies are still far from stable profitability and are currently concentrated in the primary market.<\/p>\n
2. The national team is not a complete commercial aerospace company.<\/p>\n
In the traditional aerospace system, most companies are only responsible for one link in the industrial chain: some make engines, some make structural parts, and some make certain systems. If you do your part well, the task will be completed, and there is no need to consider the business closed loop.<\/p>\n
But commercial aerospace companies are different. It must open up the entire chain – from product research and development, production and manufacturing, to acquiring customers, generating revenue, and ultimately realizing a closed business loop. Therefore, although many listed companies are in the aerospace industry chain, they are not complete commercial aerospace companies.<\/p>\n
03<\/p>\n
Commercial aerospace companies are on their way to listing<\/p>\n
Therefore, we can get a more accurate conclusion:<\/p>\n
In the current capital market, there is no listed company group that can fully represent China’s commercial aerospace core capabilities.<\/p>\n
The question then arises: When will investment opportunities in commercial aerospace actually appear?<\/p>\n
Judging from the pace of industrial development, the path is actually very clear:<\/p>\n
The first phase (now): technical verification + project implementation<\/p>\n
A large number of core companies are still verifying technologies, running products, and accumulating orders. According to statistics from the “China Commercial Aerospace Industry Research Report”, the scale of China’s commercial aerospace industry will reach 2.5 trillion to 2.8 trillion yuan in 2025, but this represents more of an explosion of market demand rather than the maturity of core enterprise profitability.<\/p>\n
The second stage (next 3-5 years): business model run-through<\/p>\n
The first batch of companies with stable market-oriented income and profitability began to emerge. In 2026, more than 10 recyclable rockets will be ready for first-stage recovery, but it will take two to three years of continuous iteration before they can truly achieve stable reuse and cost advantages. As reusable technology accelerates breakthroughs and the cost curve gradually moves downward, the realization of commercial closed loop is not far away.<\/p>\n
The third stage (the next 5-10 years): high-quality companies enter the capital market intensively<\/p>\n
A group of listed companies that can truly represent China’s commercial aerospace industry is likely to be formed at this stage. According to incomplete statistics, at least 10 commercial aerospace companies have started the IPO process. It is expected to take 5 to 10 years from sporadic listings to the formation of a sector effect. By then, a group of listed companies that truly represent China’s commercial aerospace industry will be formed.<\/p>\n
In other words, most of what you can buy today is not commercial aerospace; real commercial aerospace is still on the way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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