At the end of 2025, we asked the same five questions to 10 heads of commercial aerospace companies from different tracks and stages.<\/p>\n
The company they work for covers key aspects such as rockets, satellites, payloads, components, measurement and control, and applications; their identities range from founders to general managers who have been deeply involved in engineering and industrial decision-making for a long time.<\/p>\n
The answers are not uniform, and there are even clear differences on some key issues. But when we put these judgments into the same picture, a clear outline emerges:<\/p>\n
China’s commercial aerospace industry is approaching a critical point. <\/p>\n
This is not a prediction or a slogan, but a judgment given by front-line practitioners under real projects, real operations, and real pressure.<\/p>\n
01<\/p>\n
2025: Commercial spaceflight is \u201cinstitutionally confirmed\u201d for the first time<\/p>\n
If you choose just one thing, the judgments of almost all interviewees point in the same direction: in 2025, China’s commercial aerospace will be systematically confirmed at the institutional level for the first time.<\/p>\n
This confirmation is reflected on multiple levels:<\/p>\n
At the national level, the Commercial Space Department was formally established, no longer decentralized management and ad hoc coordination;<\/p>\n
At the top-level design level, commercial aerospace is fully integrated into the overall layout of national aerospace development;<\/p>\n
At the capital market level, the fifth set of standards on the Science and Technology Innovation Board clearly applies to commercial aerospace companies.<\/p>\n
Many business leaders mentioned that this is not “increased support”, but a more fundamental change:<\/p>\n
Commercial aerospace has moved from being “allowed to exist” to being “organized, planned, and treated in the long term.”<\/p>\n
Prior to this, companies were more exploring in the “policy gaps”; but starting from 2025, commercial aerospace will have stable expectations and long-term paths for the first time.<\/p>\n
Hello Space Judgment:<\/p>\n
The key significance of 2025 lies not in specific projects, but in the fact that for the first time, commercial aerospace has been included in the national narrative system that can be allocated and capitalized in the long term.<\/p>\n
02<\/p>\n
Judgment of the turning point in 2026: The answers are different, but the variables are highly concentrated<\/p>\n
When the question points to 2026, differences begin to emerge: some believe that the turning point comes from the successful recovery of reusable rockets; some believe that it is the transition from recovery to reuse of medium and large liquid rockets; others believe that the listing of leading companies will be a key event that changes the pace of the industry.<\/p>\n
But if you abstract further, you will find that these judgments are highly concentrated on two variables:<\/p>\n
Whether the launch capability has truly entered the engineering and replicable stage;<\/p>\n
Is capital starting to reprice around \u201ccertain capabilities\u201d?<\/p>\n
In almost all answers, reusable rockets were mentioned repeatedly – not as a “technical gimmick”, but as the underlying capability that determines launch costs, frequency and constellation rhythm.<\/p>\n
At the same time, some business leaders clearly pointed out that once the leading companies complete their listings, the capital market’s expectations for constellation networking and satellite mass manufacturing will be significantly amplified.<\/p>\n
Hello Space Judgment:<\/p>\n
The turning point in 2026 may not be just one event, but all paths ultimately point to the same question: whether the launch capability can be replicated through engineering.<\/p>\n
03<\/p>\n
Scale or technological breakthrough? This is a healthy disagreement<\/p>\n
The differences are most obvious on the question “What is the most important thing in 2026?”<\/p>\n
Some business leaders have firmly chosen large-scale implementation:<\/p>\n
If the application cannot be scaled up, the industry cannot develop;<\/p>\n
Scale itself will in turn promote technological maturity and cost reduction.<\/p>\n
The biggest bottleneck at present is no longer “whether it can be done”, but “whether it can be provided.”<\/p>\n
Another part clearly believes that technological breakthroughs are still the foundation:<\/p>\n
The recovery and reuse of reusable rockets is the most urgent technical issue;<\/p>\n
If the core cost structure does not change, large-scale commercialization will be impossible;<\/p>\n
Low-cost, high-reliability rocket and satellite products have yet to be fully developed.<\/p>\n
But put these views together and you will find that they are not contradictory. The large-scale group comes more from the application side and industrial collaboration side; the technology group comes more from the launch and system capability side.<\/p>\n
Hello Space Judgment:<\/p>\n
2026 is not a year for \u201cchoosing sides\u201d, but a year for putting our capabilities to the test. Whether it is a technological breakthrough or large-scale implementation, the only consensus is that capabilities must begin to be replicated repeatedly.<\/p>\n
04<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not technology that\u2019s overrated, it\u2019s rhythm<\/p>\n
On the question “What is most likely to be overestimated?”, the judgments are highly consistent. Many business leaders unanimously mentioned:<\/p>\n
Short-term profit expectations brought about by listing;<\/p>\n
The speed at which business closed loops are formed;<\/p>\n
Capital heat in some conceptual directions.<\/p>\n
Their core concern is not that the technology is not feasible, but that the market and capital are too optimistic about the pace of business realization. The successful launch of rockets and satellites is only the first step; what is really difficult is getting enough customers to continue paying for space services and forming a healthy and sustainable cash flow.<\/p>\n
Someone in charge also said bluntly:<\/p>\n
Pure commercial hype is a poison. The bigger the bubble blows, the greater the damage when it bursts.<\/p>\n
Hello Space Judgment:<\/p>\n
In 2026, what the industry really needs is not a bigger story, but a collective cooling and recalibration of rhythm, cycle, and difficulty.<\/p>\n
05<\/p>\n
Flag of 2026: There is no slogan, only things to be accomplished<\/p>\n
When the question returns to the company itself, all the answers become extremely specific. There is no grand narrative, only clear goals:<\/p>\n
Drop the rocket back exactly;<\/p>\n
Complete orbit recovery and truly reduce costs;<\/p>\n
Let hyperspectral and SAR constellations be truly networked and used;<\/p>\n
Build overseas measurement and control stations to make up for shortcomings in global capabilities;<\/p>\n
Make core devices available to the mainstream on a large scale.<\/p>\n
None of these goals sound “nice”; they are all engineering tasks that can be verified, failed, and must be completed.<\/p>\n
Hello Space Judgment:<\/p>\n
When companies start to use engineering goals instead of slogans to define the next year, the industry has entered a new stage. <\/p>\n
Conclusion<\/p>\n
We will not judge right or wrong for any company. But when these judgments from the front line are put into the same picture, a signal is clear enough:<\/p>\n
The real watershed is often not a single success, but a certain ability that begins to be copied repeatedly.<\/p>\n
In 2026, China’s commercial aerospace is entering this stage.<\/p>\n
Source of opinion (sorted by surname pinyin)<\/p>\n
This article is based on interviews conducted by Nihao Space with 10 heads of commercial aerospace companies (founders\/chairmen\/general managers), including:<\/p>\n
Chang Zhengyong\uff5cChairman of Juntian Aerospace<\/p>\n
Ding Cheng\uff5cPresident of Yidong Aerospace<\/p>\n
Huo Liang\uff5cDeep Blue Aerospace Founder and CEO<\/p>\n
Li Fenghui\uff5cYunyao Aerospace Chairman<\/p>\n
Liu Sheng\uff5cCo-founder of Aotian Technology<\/p>\n
Qin Jing\uff5cChairman and General Manager of Xiguang Aerospace<\/p>\n
Wei Yi\uff5cFounder of Jianyuan Technology<\/p>\n
Xu Tu | General Manager of Tianjian Inertia<\/p>\n
Yang Wensen\uff5cFounder of Tuqiang Aerospace<\/p>\n
Zhang Limin\uff5cOneworld Satellite Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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