Recently, there is a new trend in the commercial aerospace industry: the national team has begun to compete for the market. You heard it right – rockets, satellites, laser communications, rocket engines, solar wings, space tourism… almost all core tracks, the national team’s “pure commercial companies” have appeared.<\/p>\n
Many people panicked: “It’s over, this time the wolf is really coming!” Is this really the case? I want to tell you: The wolf is indeed coming, but things are not what you think. <\/p>\n
01<\/p>\n
Why is the national team suddenly commercialized?<\/p>\n
In fact, the “entry” of the national team did not happen suddenly, but was a consistent policy trend of the country since the aerospace industry was opened to private capital.<\/p>\n
Across the world, aerospace has long been a “scientific research project” led by serving “national missions”. Talent, technology, industry and other development factors are concentrated in scientific research institutes. The country hopes to liberate institutional constraints, reduce industrial costs, and enhance marketization and scale by opening up commercial aerospace and encouraging market competition. In other words: In the commercial space era, the national team needs to move away from the traditional “national mission system” and embrace the “risk market system.”<\/p>\n
According to Nihao Space\u2019s observation, the commercialization of the national team is divided into two stages. The first stage is the overall unit represented by China Rockets, Science and Technology Rockets, China Commercial Rockets, China Commercial Stars, Shaanxi Aerospace Commercial Engines, etc. As front-line units in contact with the commercial aerospace market, these overall units have the keenest sense of the market and can smell the “opportunities” hidden behind risks. They are also the earliest national teams in commercialization.<\/p>\n
The second stage is the commercialization of each “subsystem” institute. For example, the “Hangzhou Dongfanghong Laser Company” was established by the laser communication team of the 504th Institute of the Fifth Institute, and the solar wing team and space tourism team of the overall headquarters of the Fifth Institute established commercial companies in Hangzhou. These industrial chains are more “upstream” and institutes are commercializing one after another, indicating that the overall units of commercialization have driven the growth of China’s commercial aerospace market, the huge demand has been generally recognized, and the industrial construction has become mature.<\/p>\n
Therefore, more and more national teams will join this wave. Nihao Space believes that this will be the beginning of the commercialization of the national teams, and more subdivision teams will enter the market later.<\/p>\n
02<\/p>\n
What impact will the entry of the national team bring?<\/p>\n
Of course the impact is there, and it’s direct. Because the advantages of the national team are too obvious: mature system, cutting-edge technology accumulation, rich project experience, and even a mature industrial chain and stable customer sources. When they enter the market, they are likely to win the market at “ultra-low prices.” In this case, commercial companies in the niche field will instantly find that there is an opponent with a “stronger version and higher value” standing next to them.<\/p>\n
But more importantly: the original “valuation logic” of commercial companies in these tracks will be rewritten. In the past, during road shows, everyone would tell investors, “I am the leader, how much market can I occupy in the future?”, but now we must add: “What about after the national team is commercialized?”<\/p>\n
03<\/p>\n
Are there still opportunities for private commercial companies?<\/p>\n
The answer is: not only yes, but probably more. Why?<\/p>\n
First, the “entry” of the national team shows that China’s commercial aerospace pie is finally big enough. The bigger the market, the more players there are.<\/p>\n
Second, after the national team is commercialized, it must also accept market assessment: delivery cycle, price, service, product competitiveness… This is very different from the national task system that the national team is familiar with. It cannot conduct research and development in the “unlimited resources” mode. Although the starting line may be different, the “game rules” are more conducive to commercial companies.<\/p>\n
Third, commercial companies also have capabilities that the national team cannot replace: they are more flexible, faster, more daring to try and make mistakes, and more willing to reduce costs.<\/p>\n
What really determines China’s commercial aerospace market is never who is “bigger”, but who is “faster” and “more volume”.<\/p>\n
04<\/p>\n
What is the real change?<\/p>\n
This wave of national teams entering commercial aerospace is not here to \u201ccrowd out commercial companies.\u201d What has really changed are two things:<\/p>\n
1) The “market competition” of China’s commercial aerospace industry has truly begun. In the past, there were “two tracks”: the national team was doing the national team, and the business was doing business. Now we are competing on the same stage, truly comparing capabilities, delivery, and cost. This is a watershed moment for the industry.<\/p>\n
2) Industrial capabilities will be “exploded” within three years: costs will drop significantly; delivery cycles will be shortened; the reliability of the entire machine will be several levels higher; capital will be more willing to invest and see things more clearly; downstream applications will really explode.<\/p>\n
To put it simply: this is not the “end” for private space players, but the real “beginning.”<\/p>\n
So, is the commercialization of the national team a “crying wolf”? yes! But when real wolves appear, the grassland will truly prosper. Because what really makes an industry prosper is not avoiding competition, but turning wasteland into forest. It\u2019s not about \u201csqueezing out players\u201d but \u201cmaking the cake bigger\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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