Every year, commercial aerospace will accomplish several things; but only in a very few years will it truly “rewrite the industry progress bar.”<\/p>\n
2026 is likely to be such a year.<\/p>\n
Not all of the following 10 things may happen; but as long as half of them come to fruition, the narrative of China’s commercial aerospace will be rewritten.<\/p>\n
1<\/p>\n
China’s first reusable rocket successfully recovered<\/p>\n
This is the most symbolic leap forward for China\u2019s commercial aerospace industry. At the end of 2025, Zhuque-3 and Long March-12A have completed “near-successful” attempts, but the real success of first-level recovery is still pending. Entering 2026, recovery attempts will enter an intensive period: Zhuque 3 and Long March 12A will continue to sprint for recovery; Long March 12B, Pallas 1, Hyperbola 3, Long March 10B, Nebula 1, Gravity 2, Yuanxingzhe 1 and other new models will make their first flights one after another; the recyclable configurations of Tianlong 3 and Lijian 2 will also be attempted in the second half of the year. 11 recyclable rockets hit the same target in the same year. It doesn\u2019t matter who succeeds first, what\u2019s important is that China finally crossed the threshold of \u201creusability\u201d. <\/p>\n
2<\/p>\n
The Science and Technology Innovation Board welcomes \u201cthe first commercial aerospace stock\u201d<\/p>\n
This is not a company going public, but an industry being officially “named and confirmed” by the capital market. In 2025, commercial aerospace will be clearly included in the scope of application of the fifth set of listing standards on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. In 2026, it is very likely to usher in the first commercial aerospace company to actually land on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Those that have currently started or completed IPO coaching include: Blue Arrow Aerospace, Tianbing Technology, Galaxy Power, Interstellar Glory, China Science and Technology Aerospace, Micro-Nano Starry Sky, etc. No matter who wins, the significance of this moment is that commercial aerospace no longer relies on “story”, but has entered the capitalization stage. <\/p>\n
3<\/p>\n
More than 10 new rocket models fly for the first time in one year<\/p>\n
China’s rocket industry is entering an unprecedented intensive first flight cycle. According to the latest statistics from Nihao Space, there are 49 registered rocket companies in my country. Driven by policies, capital and the industrial chain, more than 10 new rocket models are expected to complete their first flights in 2026. These include: a variety of new models of recyclable rockets, as well as differentiated routes such as small and medium-sized rockets and solid rockets. This is not only a Chinese record, but also an extremely rare density of annual rocket first flights worldwide. <\/p>\n
4<\/p>\n
China\u2019s annual rocket launches officially exceed 100<\/p>\n
“The launch exceeded 100” has been shouted for several years. In 2026, there is a high probability that this time it will not be a slogan. Key variables have emerged: constellation networking has entered a period of substantial acceleration, new rocket models have made their first flights and are put into use, new launch stations and commercial launch capabilities are gradually released. It is expected that there will be more than 90 launches in 2025 and more than 100 launches in 2026, which will be a logical result. <\/p>\n
5<\/p>\n
Launching more than 500 satellites a year<\/p>\n
After decades of hard work, China has more than 1,000 satellites in orbit. But the real watershed is not the \u201ctotal amount on orbit\u201d but the annual launch intensity. In 2026, launching more than 500 satellites in a single year will become a realistic goal. This means: satellite manufacturing is no longer “task-based”; constellations have entered the stage of continuous network repair, replacement, and capacity expansion; and the industrial chain has begun to be designed based on “annual output” rather than “single satellites.” <\/p>\n
6<\/p>\n
“Chinese version of Starlink” officially enters the second-generation star network<\/p>\n
China Star Network\u2019s second-generation stars will become one of the most important industry variables in 2026. It is not just about launching more satellites, but: higher frequency launch requirements, clearer technical specifications, and clearer industry supporting standards. For the entire industry, this means: for the first time, the \u201cdemand side\u201d appears in a systematic and large-scale manner. <\/p>\n
7<\/p>\n
Full-flow methane engine test run successful<\/p>\n
This is the most core and critical step in the field of liquid rocket engines. The full flow staged\/supplementary combustion cycle is considered the “ultimate form” of the liquid oxygen methane system and is also the technical direction represented by the SpaceX Raptor engine. In 2026, China’s many technological routes will enter key nodes: In the “Eight Years and Nine Machines” plan of the Sixth Aerospace Academy, the 200-ton full-flow supplementary combustion liquid oxygen methane engine YF-215 is advancing as planned; Blue Arrow Aerospace’s 220-ton full-flow staged combustion cycle The ring engine Lanyan (BF-20) has completed half-thrust test; Jiuzhou Yunjian\u2019s 140-ton full-flow staged combustion cycle liquid oxygen methane engine Fengyun 100 (FY-100) is planned to conduct a full system ignition test in the first quarter of 2026. Once successful, the technological generational gap will be substantially reduced. <\/p>\n
8<\/p>\n
New commercial space launch site approved<\/p>\n
This is something that the industry has been clamoring for, but has yet to implement. The current major commercial launch sites are: Wenchang is too expensive, Jiuquan is too far, and Haiyang is too small. It has become an industry consensus to build a new commercial launch site on the eastern coast. If officially approved in 2026, it will directly change the launch costs, rhythm and business model of commercial rockets. <\/p>\n
9<\/p>\n
The 0.5-meter resolution limit for remote sensing satellites may be loosened<\/p>\n
The commercialization of remote sensing is being forced by global competition. Changguang Satellite will launch the “Jilin-1” Gaofen 05 constellation in 2026, which can achieve a 0.2-meter full-color resolution; and Google Maps can currently achieve a 0.3-meter resolution in most areas of the world. Domestic resolution restrictions have gradually become “institutional friction” for industrial development. In the context of global competition, there is a real possibility of dynamic adjustment of this restriction in 2026. <\/p>\n
10<\/p>\n
China’s commercial suborbital spacecraft completes key verification<\/p>\n
Space tourism is a highly imaginative market, and the international market has initially opened up. Since the first manned flight of the American company Blue Origin in 2021, its New Shepard suborbital rocket has carried out 16 commercial manned missions, sending 86 people to the Karman Line. Many companies in China are also following up: In September 2025, China Aerospace Corporation released the Lihong series of reusable aircraft, which is my country’s first fully reusable aircraft for space tourism; the Crosser 1 (CYZ1) suborbital manned spacecraft; Deep Blue Aerospace also pre-sold two 2027 manned spacecraft suborbital manned travel tickets in the Taobao live broadcast room at a price of 1 million yuan each. In 2026, if the unmanned experiment can be completed and returned safely, China’s commercial aerospace will truly touch the boundary of “space consumption” for the first time. <\/p>\n
Conclusion<\/p>\n
Forecasting is never about \u201cguessing\u201d, but to help the industry determine which things are approaching the critical point.<\/p>\n
The real watershed is often not a single success, but when a certain ability begins to be copied repeatedly.<\/p>\n
This is the real milestone for commercial aerospace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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