As the number of spacecraft in orbit increases and the orbital environment becomes increasingly crowded, space security has changed from a “technical issue” to an “underlying risk to the country and industry.” As the only ability to “see clearly what is happening in space,” space situational awareness is becoming a must-have infrastructure for space powers.<\/p>\n
Today we will learn about: 10 new tracks for commercial aerospace in 2025 – space situational awareness. <\/p>\n
01<\/p>\n
Why did it suddenly become \u201chot\u201d?<\/p>\n
On November 5, 2025, the China Manned Space Engineering Office issued a notice stating that the Shenzhou 20 manned spacecraft was suspected of being hit by tiny space debris. After a comprehensive evaluation, it was found that there were minor cracks in the porthole glass of the return capsule, which was most likely caused by the impact of space debris. Although astronauts are always safe, this incident has once again pushed the issue of “space safety” into the focus of public attention. In fact, such incidents never stop. As the number of spacecraft in orbit around the world continues to surge, orbital congestion, debris threats and potential collisions are becoming normal risks. According to data from Space-Track, a professional space tracking website of the U.S. Air Force, as of October 2025, the number of satellites in orbit worldwide has exceeded 15,000; there are more than 43,500 objects in orbit that can be tracked; there are about 1.2 million pieces of debris with a diameter of 1 cm to 10 cm; and the number of tiny debris with a diameter of 1 mm to 1 cm is in the billions. These fragments fly in orbit at an average speed of 7.8 kilometers per second, and any collision may cause a chain reaction. What is even more alarming is that as the number of commercial satellites grows rapidly, risk avoidance is becoming the norm in operations. According to the “Semi-Annual Constellation Status Report” submitted by SpaceX to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) on July 1, 2024, in just half a year, “Starlink” satellites performed nearly 50,000 collision avoidance maneuvers. This means that there are an average of more than 270 evasive actions every day, and a Starlink satellite turns to “give way” almost every 5 minutes. With the massive expansion of global commercial satellites, this number will continue to rise at an exponential rate in the future. If the key word for commercial aerospace in the past ten years has been \u201cputting more satellites into the sky\u201d, then the key word for the next ten years must be \u201cmaking all satellites live safely and longer\u201d. To realize this, we must first do three things: see clearly, see accurately, and see completely. Because of this, Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is moving from behind the scenes to the front, becoming a basic capability that supports future aerospace security. Space situational awareness refers to the continuous monitoring, identification and analysis of all “dynamic factors” in space, including satellites, space debris, orbital changes, potential collision risks, etc., to ensure the safe operation of spacecraft and orderly management of orbits. Traditionally, ground-based radars and optical telescopes have been relied upon for observation. However, with the rapid increase in the number of satellites in orbit and the rapid growth of debris, it is difficult for the ground alone to meet the accuracy and coverage requirements. Therefore, countries are accelerating the construction of a “space-ground integration” situational awareness system composed of space-based monitoring satellites and ground observation systems to achieve more timely, more comprehensive, and more accurate space monitoring and risk warning. <\/p>\n
02<\/p>\n
Global Industry Overview<\/p>\n
According to the “2034 Space Situational Awareness Market Opportunities and Strategies” report released by ResearchAndMarkets.com, the global space situational awareness market size will reach nearly US$1.5 billion in 2024. The market is expected to grow to US$2 billion in 2029 and reach US$2.6 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 5%. 1. From the perspective of segmented fields: By use, the government and military sectors are still the largest demanders, accounting for 61.12% in 2024, with a scale of approximately US$920 million; the commercial market is the fastest growing segment in the future, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.40% expected from 2024 to 2029. By function, detection, tracking and identification are still the core capabilities, accounting for 53.40% in 2024, with a scale of approximately US$804 million; the threat warning and assessment segment will become the fastest growing segment in the future, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.95% expected from 2024 to 2029. From the perspective of regional distribution, North America is still the largest market for space situational awareness, accounting for 41.70% in 2024, with a scale of approximately US$628 million, followed by Asia-Pacific, Western Europe and other regions. The fastest growing regions in the future will be Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, with compound annual growth rates expected to be 7.27% and 6.99% respectively. South America and Africa will also maintain steady growth of more than 6%. 2. Judging from the technological progress of various countries: China: It is accelerating the construction of a “space-ground integration” system. A multi-band radar and optical telescope network has been formed on the ground. The space-based aspect continues to conduct on-orbit verification with a series of practical satellites. The U.S. Space Command’s 2024 annual report shows that the coverage density of China’s space debris monitoring network has reached 4.6 monitoring nodes per thousand cubic kilometers, surpassing some traditional systems in the United States. The United States: has the world’s most advanced and widest coverage space surveillance network SSN, with the second-generation “Space Fence” ground-based phased array radar and GSSAP space-based satellite as the core, forming the world’s highest frequency on-orbit observation capabilities, and exporting real-time data such as TLE and re-entry prediction to the world through Space-Track. Europe: Led by the European Space Agency and coordinated by nearly 20 countries, it is the second largest space debris cataloging system in the world. Currently, monitoring capabilities are continuously strengthened, represented by facilities such as ground-based laser tracking stations and Flyeye optical telescopes. Russia: By upgrading the Soviet-era missile warning system, today’s military space surveillance network SKKP has been gradually formed, and it relies on the “Window” optical observation system and the ISON optical monitoring network to strengthen its global monitoring capabilities. At the same time, it is planning to build a “Galaxy” space-based satellite constellation. <\/p>\n
03<\/p>\n
Major players in the industry<\/p>\n
As the construction of large-scale commercial constellations accelerates, more and more commercial aerospace companies, satellite operators, and data service providers have become important forces in space traffic management and risk warning. 1. Major foreign players: Vantor (USA): \u200cOriginally known as Maxar Intelligence, it completed its rebranding on October 1, 2025, and its business focus shifted from traditional remote sensing image providers to comprehensive intelligence services. Improve space monitoring capabilities through multi-source sensor fusion to serve agencies such as the U.S. Space Force. It currently operates 4 traditional electro-optical remote sensing satellites and 6 new-generation World View Legion satellites, which can capture real-time images of objects in orbit. Leolabs (USA): Founded in 2016, it is the leading space situational awareness service provider in the United States. By deploying 6 sets of radar sites around the world, more than 20,000 targets are monitored around the clock, and combined with an AI-driven data platform, it provides low-orbit space target monitoring and analysis services for defense and civil space agencies such as the U.S. Space Force, the British Ministry of Defense, NASA, and SpaceX. NorthStar (Canada): Founded in 2015, it is a company focused on space debris monitoring. The “Skylark” constellation consisting of 52 satellites is being built, of which the first 12 satellites are dedicated to multi-orbit target tracking. 4 have been successfully launched on January 31, 2024, and the remaining 8 will be launched in 2026. It is also planned to deploy about 40 satellites equipped with infrared and hyperspectral sensors in the future to realize the integrated capabilities of space situational awareness and earth observation. 2. Major domestic players: Aotian Technology: Founded in 2018, it is a commercial aerospace company that uses electric propulsion as the entry point and provides system-level on-orbit services around serving space infrastructure, on-orbit safety and efficient operations. In 2021, it took the lead in building the country’s first commercial electric propulsion intelligent manufacturing production line, and has delivered a total of more than 200 Taipower propulsion products. The application frequency band will be laid out in 2021. The “Gander” space-based space debris monitoring constellation composed of 120 satellites is being built, and three major platforms, “SkyEnv”, “SkyPatrol” and “SkyShield”, have been launched. The goal is to achieve full-time and full-domain space target detection capabilities. Star Map Measurement and Control: Founded in 2016, it is a listed company with space management services as its core, specializing in aerospace measurement and control management, space situational awareness, aerospace digital simulation and other businesses. It is proposed to build a “Star Eye” space sensing constellation plan composed of 156 satellites to track, catalog and orbit space targets above 10cm, forming a two-hour update release capability. The first satellite is scheduled to be launched into orbit in the first half of 2026, and relies on the “Insighter” and “Space Cloud” platforms to build a space sensing service platform to provide commercial satellite operators with data release, collision warning and avoidance strategy calculation services, and can provide customized space situation analysis services according to user needs. Kaiyun Group: Founded in 2004, it is an operator of space debris monitoring and data services. It is planned to establish an independent and controllable domestic orbit cataloging database through the construction of a global ground-based observation network and three space-based observation constellations. Ground-based observation network: Observation stations in Beijing, Jilin, Xinjiang, Africa, and South America have been built, and it plans to deploy 30 optical observation stations around the world by the end of 2026, equipped with nearly a thousand optical telescopes; Space-based observation network: It plans to build a space-based observation constellation composed of 108 satellites. The first satellite was successfully launched on September 5, 2025, and returned more than 2,000 space images that month. Xingchen Daohe: Founded in 2024, it is an aerospace technology enterprise transformed from the scientific and technological achievements of Beihang University, focusing on space traffic management services. At present, the research and development of space-based optical sensing payloads and on-board intelligent computing systems, the “Yun Yao” space traffic situation digital twin system, and independent high-precision navigation and collision avoidance systems have been completed, and the construction of a dedicated space situation awareness constellation “Guanlan” has been completed. Qingbo Sky: Founded in 2025, it is a start-up company focusing on space debris cataloging, cooperative target collision warning and space unusual event perception. It has a “full-cycle intelligent aerospace operation and maintenance platform” that can achieve matching cataloging of medium and low orbit targets above 1cm, with an orbit determination accuracy of 500m, and the response time from receiving observation data to issuing early warning can be controlled within 10 minutes. <\/p>\n
04<\/p>\n
upstream and downstream industry chain<\/p>\n
Space situational awareness is not something that a single company can accomplish. It is a complete link from “seeing” to “calculation” to “early warning” to “decision-making.” Each link is inseparable from the participation of a large number of suppliers, equipment vendors, and algorithm service providers. Simply put, it is a composite industrial chain of \u201cequipment + algorithm + data + service\u201d. Upstream: sensors and core hardware, which are the “eyes and brains” of the entire chain. Radar system: meter wave, centimeter wave, phased array radar, responsible for large-scale, all-weather on-orbit target detection. Optical and infrared telescope\/payload: Responsible for precise observation of high-orbit, weak and small targets. Core devices: detectors, high-precision turntables, optical lens groups, high dynamic range CMOS\/CCD, and MEMS devices. Computing and data acquisition hardware: high-performance chips, edge computing equipment, fault-tolerant processors, etc., used to ensure data processing capabilities in complex spatial environments. Representative companies: Interstellar Guangyao (satellite-borne space situational awareness camera), Changguang Aorun (ground-based small unattended photoelectric imaging telescope) Midstream: orbit calculation, data platform and early warning system, the “algorithm brain” of the industry chain SSA data provider: obtain target observation data from multi-source sensors to form a measurement orbit data set. Orbit determination, cataloging, and collision warning algorithms: Generate higher-precision orbit calculation results through dynamic modeling, AI recognition, and other means. Space event monitoring platform: conduct research and judgment on disintegration events, abnormal maneuvers, abnormal brightness changes, and possible confrontation activities. Space traffic management platform: Provide operators with services such as avoidance path plans, re-entry predictions, and track life estimation. Representative companies: Aotian Technology, Star Map Measurement and Control, Kaiyun Group, Xingchen Daohe, Qingbo Sky and Sky Downstream: All customer groups that truly “use” data Large constellations and satellite operators (collision avoidance) Rocket launch and measurement and control service providers (launch window safety, ballistic design) On-orbit service providers (rendezvous and docking guidance, mission planning) Insurance and reinsurance companies (risk assessment and liability determination) Military and national security departments (space situation awareness, threat warning) Scientific research institutions and universities (model verification, scientific research) Overseas customers (countries and military trade companies that require cataloging and orbital services) <\/p>\n
05<\/p>\n
Industry bottlenecks and opportunities in the next five years<\/p>\n
The current core bottlenecks: <\/p>\n
Although space situational awareness has been widely regarded as the “underlying operating system” for national strategic and commercial space operations, the industry still has obvious shortcomings in basic capabilities.<\/p>\n
1. There is still a huge gap in space-based monitoring data, especially GEO orbit data.<\/p>\n
At present, most monitoring networks around the world still rely on ground-based optics and radar, and the space-based capabilities to truly achieve high-frequency monitoring of GEO (approximately 36,000 kilometers) are seriously insufficient. The result is that “continuous and reliable situational awareness” of satellites in GEO orbit is still significantly insufficient. This is the greatest source of uncertainty for future constellations, on-orbit services, and space security.<\/p>\n
2. High-precision orbit determination algorithms are still highly dependent on international data.<\/p>\n
Although domestic enterprises and scientific research institutes are developing orbit determination algorithms, the core accuracy is still limited by external data sources, such as leap seconds, polar motion data (provided by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service (IERS)), space environment data, etc. The lack of “independent and controllable global observation data” means that what we can see at critical moments and how accurately we see it are not entirely in our own hands.<\/p>\n
3. There is still a lack of unified standards among different countries and satellite manufacturers.<\/p>\n
Track data formats, interaction protocols, collision warning interfaces, etc. have not formed a unified global standard, and even different institutions within the same country use their own systems. The result is that it is difficult to achieve true coordination in key capabilities such as multi-constellation common orbit operation and on-orbit maneuvering.<\/p>\n
4. The business model is still limited to \u201cgovernment customers + multiple points of income\u201d<\/p>\n
At present, commercial SSA mostly relies on government procurement, scientific research projects or one-time service fees, and lacks a sustainable business model similar to “subscription system” and “operation system”. The industry as a whole is still in the stage of “can do it, but not big”, and has not yet truly broken through the closed business loop.<\/p>\n
Three major windows of opportunity in the next five years: <\/p>\n
In our long-term tracking of the commercial aerospace supply chain and research on related companies, we have seen that space situational awareness is about to usher in three extremely deterministic growth curves.<\/p>\n
1. Space-based space situational awareness commercial constellation will usher in a climax of construction<\/p>\n
Whether it is LEO or GEO, the common pain point of “insufficient high-frequency monitoring capabilities” exists around the world. This means: whoever can take the lead in establishing a space-based observation network can become the basic service provider of global SSA; commercial companies can run large-scale businesses for the first time under the “satellite + data + subscription service” model; this will be one of the new tracks where China’s commercial aerospace is most likely to have “billion-level revenue” after Beidou navigation and low-orbit communication.<\/p>\n
2. Space Traffic Management (STM) will move from \u201ctool\u201d to \u201cservice system\u201d<\/p>\n
In the future, the operation of large constellations will become more and more like “air traffic control systems” rather than “single aircraft management.” This means: constellation operators must access the STM system in real time; STM services will become a rigid cost like purchasing TLE data.<\/p>\n
3. Space situational awareness will be deeply integrated with \u201con-orbit services\u201d to give birth to a new industrial chain<\/p>\n
On-orbit refueling, on-orbit towing, on-orbit maintenance, and space debris cleanup all require three things: high-precision orbit determination, precise maneuvering with electric propulsion, and an AI-driven orbit decision-making system. When SSA data is combined with on-orbit maneuverability, a new business model will be born: orbit optimization services, satellite life extension services, on-orbit collision dynamic avoidance services, constellation intelligent scheduling and orbit health management. This will be the starting point for a new 100-billion-level track.<\/p>\n
Conclusion<\/p>\n
In the “National Space Administration Action Plan to Promote High-quality and Safe Development of Commercial Spaceflight (2025-2027)” released on November 18, 2025, it is clearly proposed to support the expansion of new business formats such as space environment monitoring and detection, space debris monitoring, early warning, and mitigation and removal. In the next five years, as the construction of space-based observation networks accelerates and space traffic management systems become a rigid cost of each constellation, China’s commercial space situational awareness will also move from scientific research to large-scale commercial applications.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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