From the “new growth engine” first written into the government work report in 2024 to being positioned as an “emerging pillar industry” in 2026, the importance of commercial aerospace at the national level has continued to increase, which has also attracted local governments to compete for commercial aerospace companies. For local governments, the deployment of commercial aerospace is not only for tax revenue, but also to occupy a place in the national strategic map. After all, by undertaking the national strategic will, it is easier to obtain policy dividends, and it is easier to obtain special funds from national ministries and commissions and major projects. At the same time, against the background of the slowdown in traditional infrastructure and real estate investment, local governments are in urgent need of a new and large-scale industry to fill the gap in economic growth. Commercial aerospace not only has a long industrial chain and is one of the few blue ocean markets with clear “trillion-level” prospects, but also has a high degree of dual-use military and civilian use, recyclable rocket technology, and low-cost satellite manufacturing capabilities, which can be quickly converted into strategic resources in special times. By undertaking the commercial aerospace industry, various regions can invisibly strengthen their position in the national defense science and technology industry system, and it is easier to consolidate the local industrial moat. As various localities continue to be “involved”, some local governments are beginning to worry that if they miss this policy window period, the threshold for future entry will be unattainable, so the “involution” continues to intensify.<\/p>\n
However, the inherent “high technology, high investment, long cycle, strong clustering, and strong supporting facilities” characteristics of commercial aerospace also determine that it cannot become a “standard configuration” for all cities. If it lacks core endowments and is forced to launch, it will not only fail to form an industrial closed loop, but may cause a huge waste of resources. Therefore, when attracting commercial aerospace companies, you must have a deep understanding of the industry and a rational self-evaluation, and some practical factors must be considered.<\/p>\n
The first is talent and scientific research foundation: whether there are aerospace “national team” institutes and strong aerospace schools in the local area, whether there is a high-end manufacturing foundation, or the ability to attract and gather high-end aerospace engineering talents. The reason why Beijing and Xi’an are strong is that they have the talent and technology spillover advantage of the aerospace “national team” compound. For technical talents within the system, there will be concerns after they come out of the system. If they go to live in other cities, the concerns will be even greater, because behind this is a complex trade-off between personal development, family responsibilities and real pressure. Therefore, cities with the ability to attract and gather high-end aerospace engineering talents will naturally have advantages over other cities in developing the commercial aerospace industry. Most ordinary prefecture-level cities can hardly recruit core teams, and in the end they can only recruit some sales and administrative shell companies. For cities without scientific research institutes, universities, or high-end talents, they can only do low-end processing, and it is difficult to establish core competitiveness. The second is geographical and locational conditions: the aerospace industry is highly dependent on geography and industrial foundation. In some places, God just provides food for them. For example, Wenchang in Hainan has the dual advantages of “low latitude + coastal area” and has two core strategic facilities: “Wenchang Space Launch Site + Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site”. This is unmatched by other cities and brings it a natural advantage in the development of the aerospace industry. In addition to providing food for God, there are also some cities that are naturally not suitable for deploying some industrial links. For example, inland small and medium-sized cities with dense population, tight airspace, and environmentally sensitive areas are simply not suitable for rocket assembly, test runs, and launch operations. On top of that, there are safety and compliance risks. The third is financial strength: Commercial aerospace is very expensive, and the investment return period is very long. It is difficult for most companies to make profits in the short term. They basically rely on financing, and the risk of failure during the research and development process is also high. In this case, whether the local government has enough financial strength to play the role of “patient capital” and accompany the company to grow together. If the local government’s finances are tight, or the assessment mechanism requires “investment in the same year, results in the same year”, this mentality is obviously inconsistent with the objective laws of the aerospace industry. Without the financial resources and determination to “accompany” the company, it will be difficult for the company to survive in the local area or establish a long-term layout. In the end, it will either be forced to carry on, dragging down the finances and forming hidden debts, or the two parties will “break up” sadly. The fourth is the industrial foundation: the aerospace industry chain is extremely long, and you will definitely die if you go it alone. If a city does not even have the foundation for high-end automobile manufacturing, precision machine tools or electronic information industries, and wants to “build high buildings from the ground” to engage in aerospace assembly and other aspects, the supply chain cost will be extremely high. Without industrial clusters, it will be difficult for one or two companies to survive for a long time even if they are established. If a city or a nearby urban agglomeration with very convenient transportation can provide 80% of the supporting facilities, then this city\/urban agglomeration has huge potential. Fifth, application scenarios: Satellites are sent up for use. If a place does not have vast oceans, complex mountains, or the need for smart cities or the Internet of Things, then it will be difficult to empower enterprises with “application scenarios” and it will be impossible to deeply bind enterprises.<\/p>\n
At present, as this craze continues to ferment, some structural concerns have emerged. For example, some cities have experienced a phenomenon of “hot signings and slow construction starts.” In some areas, the lack of professional judgment has led to companies “making money” by setting up shell companies in many places across the country, resulting in duplication of construction and waste of resources. What’s more, in some places, there have been cases of local governments being “harvested” by fake companies.<\/p>\n
The commercial aerospace industry is not a “panacea” for the development and upgrading of local industries. What attracts the commercial aerospace industry is not courage, but “cycle understanding.” Some practical factors still need to be considered. Only by returning to the nature of the industry and examining it with a professional eye can we neither miss opportunities nor fall into traps in this trillion-level track.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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