Nationstar Aerospace is aiming to be the first commercial aerospace stock in Hong Kong stock market, with a valuation of 6.5 billion but a loss of over 440 million yuan in three years. On the one hand, there is the halo of AI satellite technology, and on the other hand, there are the problems of customer dependence and profitability. Can this IPO solve the industry’s dilemma?<\/p>\n
01<\/p>\n
Nationstar Aerospace goes public in Hong Kong with AI satellite and “Star Computing Plan”<\/p>\n
In January 2025, Nationstar Aerospace officially submitted a listing prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with Guotai Junan International and CCB International serving as sponsors and coordinators. If successfully listed, Nationstar Aerospace will become the “No. 1 commercial aerospace stock” in the Hong Kong stock market.<\/p>\n
NationStar Aerospace was established in 2018 and focuses on the R&D and application of low-orbit satellites. Its core businesses include AI application satellites, AI intelligent computing satellites and “star computing plans”.<\/p>\n
\u2460<\/p>\n
AI application satellite<\/p>\n
: Equipped with AI payloads to realize real-time processing of on-board data and improve remote sensing efficiency;<\/p>\n
\u2461AI intelligent computing satellite<\/p>\n
: Provide edge computing power in space and promote “computing in days and days” (on-orbit processing of space data).<\/p>\n
\u2462<\/p>\n
star calculation plan<\/p>\n
: A space-based computing network consisting of 2,800 AI intelligent computing satellites will be built by 2030. It has been approved and announced by the International Telecommunications Union for orbit and spectrum, and plans to launch the first batch of 12 satellites in 2025.<\/p>\n
Picture: “Star Computing Project” global press conference Source: NationStar Aerospace<\/p>\n
In terms of revenue in 2023, Nationstar ranks second among private aerospace companies that manage a complete satellite industry chain, with a market share of 1.9%. If only satellite business revenue is counted, it ranks eighth, highlighting the imbalance between its technological advantages and commercialization capabilities.<\/p>\n
Figure: China\u2019s top ten private satellite companies in satellite business in 2023 Source: NationStar Aerospace Prospectus 02 Survival Crisis Under the Appearance of High Growth Today, Nationstar Aerospace uses AI satellites as its selling point and has created a \u201ccapital myth\u201d with a valuation of 6.5 billion in only 6 years since its establishment. However, financial data reveals a deep-seated crisis.<\/p>\n
1. Revenue growth declines<\/p>\n
From 2022 to the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 177 million yuan, 508 million yuan and 237 million yuan respectively. The growth rate plummeted from 187% to -53%, and the growth momentum was obviously exhausted.<\/p>\n
Figure: Revenue of each main business of Nationstar Aerospace Source: Nationstar Aerospace Prospectus 2. Losses continued to expand. Net losses during the same period were 91 million yuan, 139 million yuan, and 214 million yuan, with a cumulative loss of approximately 444 million yuan. The gross profit margin of the satellite business will drop to -107.1% in 2023, and each satellite will be sold at a loss.<\/p>\n
Figure: Nationstar Aerospace\u2019s revenue Source: Nationstar Aerospace prospectus<\/p>\n
3. Cash flow is tight<\/p>\n
As of the end of September 2024, the book cash is only 111 million yuan, which is only enough to support half a year of operations at the current cash burn rate.<\/p>\n
03<\/p>\n
The high \u201cticket\u201d for commercial aerospace<\/p>\n
1. Satellite costs are high<\/p>\n
\u2460<\/p>\n
Aerospace grade components<\/p>\n
The price is high, dozens of times higher than that of civilian products, constituting a core cost burden.<\/p>\n
\u2461<\/p>\n
Shenzhen Satellite Research and Development Center<\/p>\n
It has not yet been put into production, and mass cost reduction is still stuck in the blueprint, with no short-term results.<\/p>\n
Figure: Nationstar Aerospace subsidiary builds satellite factory in Baoan, Shenzhen Source: Heyi Industrial Operations 2. R&D investment backfires on profits. R&D expenditures accounted for 44.3% in the first three quarters of 2024, far exceeding the industry average, and the rate of capital consumption far exceeds revenue growth.<\/p>\n
3. Controversy over founder\u2019s high salary<\/p>\n
Founder Lu Chuan<\/p>\n
Salaries in the first three quarters of 2024 cause controversy<\/p>\n
, far more than other executives. Although his technical leadership is recognized, in the context of the company’s expanding losses, the inversion between high salary and performance has raised questions.<\/p>\n
Picture: Lu Chuan, founder of Nationstar Aerospace Source: Nationstar Aerospace<\/p>\n
4. Customer concentration risk<\/p>\n
The top five customers contribute 92.7% of revenue<\/p>\n
, the largest customer accounts for 73%. Related party Beijing Carbon Stop Technology (the actual controller is also Lu Chuan) is both its third largest customer and supplier, with revenue of 9.368 million yuan in 2022, accounting for 5.3% of Nationstar Aerospace’s total revenue. The corresponding business is “smart parking solutions”, and the related business will start in 2021.<\/p>\n
Figure: Basic customer information Source: Nationstar Aerospace prospectus<\/p>\n
04<\/p>\n
Technical advantages cannot cover up commercial shortcomings<\/p>\n
1. Technical achievements and market limitations<\/p>\n
\u2460<\/p>\n
Up to now, Nationstar Aerospace has jointly developed 6 traditional remote sensing satellites and 1 AI application satellite with its partners; it has independently developed 6 AI payloads, 4 AI application satellites and 4 AI intelligent computing satellites, and has successfully completed 13 space missions, including the world’s first in-orbit AI large model satellite.<\/p>\n
Picture: The world\u2019s first AI large model scientific satellite Source: China Science and Technology Network<\/p>\n
\u2461<\/p>\n
The first three quarters of 2024<\/p>\n
Satellite based solutions<\/p>\n
business contribution<\/p>\n
Over 80% of income<\/p>\n
, customers are concentrated in governments and large institutions, and the civilian market has not been opened.<\/p>\n
Figure: Satellite industry value chain Source: Nationstar Aerospace Prospectus<\/p>\n
2. Concept implementation lags behind<\/p>\n
“Space Edge Computing<\/p>\n
“Still stuck in the laboratory stage, the To C business model has not yet been fully operational, and attempts such as smart parking contribute less than 5% of revenue.<\/p>\n
3. Poor market environment<\/p>\n
\u2460Domestic counterparts:<\/p>\n
Leading private remote sensing satellite<\/p>\n
Changguang Satellite<\/p>\n
Due to continued losses and sanctions risks, the IPO was withdrawn at the end of 2024; companies within the system, such as China Satellite, lost 14.7406 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, and their commercialization capabilities are still insufficient.<\/p>\n
\u2461International competition:<\/p>\n
SpaceX Starlink<\/p>\n
Deployed<\/p>\n
Over 7,000 satellites<\/p>\n
, occupying the advantage of low-orbit orbit resources, Nationstar Aerospace\u2019s 2,800-plane plan is facing resource competition and cost pressure.<\/p>\n
Picture: Starlink has launched more than 7,000 satellites Source: Notebookcheck05 How does Nationstar Aerospace break the situation?<\/p>\n
1. Cost breakthrough<\/p>\n
\u2460<\/p>\n
On-board AI processing<\/p>\n
Reduces data return bandwidth requirements<\/p>\n
90%<\/p>\n
, if applied on a large scale, the cost can be reduced by 40%.<\/p>\n
\u2461Shenzhen Satellite Research and Development Center<\/p>\n
accelerate<\/p>\n
Once put into production, the annual output of satellites will exceed 100, which is expected to dilute R&D and manufacturing costs.<\/p>\n
2. Policy dividends<\/p>\n
\u2460 “Commercial aerospace” will be included in the government work report for the first time in 2024. Chengdu and other places will launch special subsidies. The industry is expected to receive tax incentives and procurement preferences.<\/p>\n
\u2461<\/p>\n
Promote AI satellite technology standards through the International Telecommunications Union to avoid spectrum competition pressure.<\/p>\n
3. Diversified layout<\/p>\n
\u2460<\/p>\n
participate<\/p>\n
National Low Orbit Satellite Internet Project<\/p>\n
, share the risk of R&D investment.<\/p>\n
\u2461 Deep cultivation<\/p>\n
smart agriculture,<\/p>\n
Logistics monitoring<\/p>\n
Waiting for trillions<\/p>\n
The civilian market reduces dependence on government orders.<\/p>\n
\u2462 exert force<\/p>\n
Overseas business<\/p>\n
, providing satellite and complete solutions.<\/p>\n
Summarize<\/p>\n
The IPO of Nationstar Aerospace is not only a breakthrough attempt in the commercial aerospace industry, but also the ultimate test of the sustainability of its business model. The triple resonance of technological leadership, capital patience and market demand may become the key to breaking the situation. However, under the industry logic of “burning money for growth”, how to balance short-term losses and long-term value is still a difficult problem that all participants must answer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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