Every other week, it seems, a new Chinese launch company pops up with a rocket design and a plan to reach orbit within a few years. For a long time, the majority of these companies revealed designs that looked a lot like SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 rocket.<\/p>\n
The first of these copy cats, the medium-lift Zhuque-3 rocket built by LandSpace, launched earlier this month. Its primary mission was nominal, but the Zhuque-3 rocket failed its landing attempt, which is understandable for a first flight. Doubtless there will be more Chinese Falcon 9-like rockets making their debut in the near future.<\/p>\n
However, over the last year, there has been a distinct change in announcements from China when it comes to new launch technology. Just as SpaceX is seeking to transition from its workhorse Falcon 9 rocket\u2014which has now been flying for a decade and a half\u2014to the fully reusable Starship design, so too are Chinese companies modifying their visions.<\/p>\n
The trend began with the Chinese government. In November 2024 the government announced a significant shift in the design of its super-heavy lift rocket, the Long March 9. Instead of the previous design, a fully expendable rocket with three stages and solid rocket boosters strapped to the sides, the country\u2019s state-owned rocket maker revealed a vehicle that mimicked SpaceX\u2019s fully reusable Starship.<\/p>\n
Around the same time, a Chinese launch firm named Cosmoleap announced plans to develop a fully reusable \u201cLeap\u201d rocket within the next few years. An animated video that accompanied the funding announcement indicated that the company seeks to emulate the tower catch-with-chopsticks methodology that SpaceX has successfully employed.<\/p>\n
But wait, there\u2019s more. In June a company called Astronstone said it too was developing a stainless steel, methane-fueled rocket that would also use a chopstick-style system for first stage recovery. Astronstone didn\u2019t even pretend to not copy SpaceX, saying it was \u201cfully aligning its technical approach with Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX.\u201d<\/p>\n
,<\/p>\n
And then, on Friday, the state-aligned China.com reported that a company called \u201cBeijing Leading Rocket Technology\u201d took things a step further. It has named its vehicle \u201cStarship-1,\u201d adding that the new rocket will have enhancements from AI and is billed as a \u201cfully reusable AI rocket.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s worth noting that, unlike the government\u2019s Long March 9 vehicle, most of the Chinese startups are starting with smaller versions of the Starship vehicle, which makes sense because it is completely impractical for a startup to build a super heavy lift rocket out of the gate.<\/p>\n
Many of these launch startups will not grow past the PowerPoint phase, of course. The US commercial launch industry went through a similarly euphoric phase about a decade ago, albeit with a far greater diversity in rocket design, when there were dozens of startups. Only a small handful eventually reached orbit.<\/p>\n
Although the mechanics of the fundraising market in China are different from capital markets in the United States, investors are nonetheless driven by the prospect of growth and long-term profits. For this reason it makes sense to emulate the most successful US launch company, SpaceX, and its forward-looking technology, Starship. Chinese startups are telling investors they can become the SpaceX of China, and the most obvious way to do this is to build similar rockets.<\/p>\n
But it is anyone\u2019s guess whether the Chinese startups can get a Starship working. SpaceX is still in the development phase of its super heavy lift rocket, after all.<\/p>\n
And whether Starship\u2019s design will scale downward remains an open question. Building a smaller Starship is not necessarily easier than a large one, and the design may not work below a certain threshold. For example, when US-based Stoke Space sought to tackle full and rapid reuse with a smaller launch vehicle, the company opted for a novel upper stage and heat shield that is completely different from SpaceX\u2019s pathway for a super heavy lift rocket.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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