![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.arstechnica.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/starship_march2025.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
SpaceX\u2019s Starship and Super Heavy booster lift off from Starbase, Texas, in March 2025.<\/p>\n
Credit:
\n SpaceX<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
The danger area will be larger for an actual launch, but workers will still need to clear areas closer to Starship launch pads during static fire tests, when the rocket fires its engines while remaining on the ground. This is what prompted ULA and Blue Origin to lodge their protests.<\/p>\n
,<\/p>\n
\u201cThey understand neighboring operations,\u201d Chatman said in a media roundtable on Friday. \u201cThey understand that we will allow the maximum efficiency possible to facilitate their operations, but there will be times that we\u2019re not going to let them go to their launch complex because it\u2019s neighboring a hazardous activity.\u201d<\/p>\n
The good news for these other companies is that Eastern Range\u2019s keep-out zones will almost certainly get smaller by the time SpaceX gets anywhere close to 120 Starship launches per year. SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 is currently launching at a similar cadence. The blast danger areas for those launches are small and short-lived because the Space Force\u2019s confidence in the Falcon 9\u2019s safety is \u201cextremely high,\u201d Chatman said.<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom a blast damage assessment perspective, specific to the Falcon 9, we know what that keep-out area is,\u201d Chatman said. \u201cIt\u2019s the new combination of new fuels\u2014LOX\/methane\u2014which is kind of a game-changer as we look at some of the heavy vehicles that are coming to launch. We just don\u2019t have the analysis on those to be able to say, \u2018Hey, from a testing perspective, how small can we reduce the BDA and be safe?\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
Methane has become a popular fuel choice, supplanting refined kerosene, liquid hydrogen, or solid fuels commonly used on previous generations of rockets. Methane leaves behind less soot than kerosene, easing engine reusability, and it\u2019s simpler to handle than liquid hydrogen.<\/p>\n
Aside from Starship, Blue Origin\u2019s New Glenn and ULA\u2019s Vulcan rockets use liquified natural gas, a fuel very similar to methane. Both rockets are smaller than Starship, but Blue Origin last week unveiled the design of a souped-up New Glenn rocket that will nearly match Starship\u2019s scale.<\/p>\n
A few years ago, NASA, the Space Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration decided to look into the explosive potential of methalox rockets. There had been countless tests of explosions of gaseous methane, but data on detonations of liquid methane and liquid oxygen was scarce at the time\u2014just a couple of tests at less than 10 metric tons, according to NASA. So, the government\u2019s default position was to assume an explosion would be equivalent to the energy released by the same amount of TNT. This assumption drives the large keep-out zones the Space Force has drawn around SpaceX\u2019s future Starship launch pads, one of which is seen in the map below.<\/p>\n This map from a Space Force environmental impact statement shows potential restricted access zones around SpaceX\u2019s proposed Starship launch site at Space Launch Complex-37. The restricted zones cover launch pads operated by United Launch Alliance, Relativity Space, and Stoke Space.<\/p>\n Credit: Chatman said the Space Force is prepared to update its blast danger areas once its government partners, SpaceX, and Blue Origin complete testing and analyze their results. Over dozens of tests, engineers are examining how methane and liquid oxygen react to different kinds of accidents, such as impact velocity, pressure, and mass ratio, or how much propellant is in the mix.<\/p>\n ,<\/p>\n \u201cThat is ongoing currently,\u201d Chatman said. \u201c[We are] working in close partnership with SpaceX and Blue Origin on the LOX\/methane combination and the explicit equivalency to identify how much we can \u2026 reduce that blast radius. Those discussions are happening, have been happening the last couple years, and are looking to culminate here in \u201926.<\/p>\n \u201cUntil we get that data from the testing that is ongoing and the analysis that needs to occur, we\u2019re going to continue to treat any LOX-methane vehicle with 100 percent TNT blast equivalency, and have a maximized keep-out zone, simply from a public safety perspective,\u201d Chatman said.<\/p>\n The data so far shows promising results. \u201cWe do expect that BDA to shrink,\u201d he said. \u201cWe expect that to shrink based on some of the initial testing that has been done and the initial data reviews that have been done.\u201d<\/p>\n That\u2019s imperative, not just for Starship\u2019s neighbors at the Cape Canaveral spaceport, but for SpaceX itself. The company forecasts a future in which it will launch Starships more often than the Falcon 9, requiring near-continuous operations at multiple launch pads.<\/p>\n Chatman mentioned one future scenario in which SpaceX might want to launch Starships in close proximity to one another from neighboring pads.<\/p>\n \u201cAt that point in the future, I do anticipate the blast damage assessments to shrink down based on the testing that will have been accomplished and dataset will have been reviewed, [and] that we\u2019ll be in a comfortable set to be able to facilitate all launch operations. But until we have that data, until I\u2019m comfortable with what that data shows, with regards to reducing the BDA, keep-out zone, we\u2019re going to continue with the 100 percent TNT equivalency just from a public safety perspective.\u201d<\/p>\n SpaceX has performed explosive LOX\/methane tests, including the one seen here, at its development facility in McGregor, Texas.<\/p>\n Credit: The Commercial Space Federation, a lobbying group, submitted written testimony to Congress in 2023 arguing the government should be using \u201cexisting industry data\u201d to inform its understanding of the explosive potential of methane and liquid oxygen. That data, the federation said, suggests the government should set its TNT blast equivalency to no greater than 25 percent, a change that would greatly reduce the size of keep-out zones around launch pads. The organization\u2019s members include prominent methane users SpaceX, Blue Origin, Relativity Space, and Stoke Space, all of which have launch sites at Cape Canaveral.<\/p>\n The government\u2019s methalox testing plans were expected to cost at least $80 million, according to the Commercial Space Federation.<\/p>\n The concern among engineers is that liquid oxygen and methane are highly miscible, meaning they mix together easily, raising the risk of a \u201ccondensed phase detonation\u201d with \u201csignificantly higher overpressures\u201d than rockets with liquid hydrogen or kerosene fuels. Small-scale mixtures of liquid oxygen and liquified natural gas have \u201cshown a broad detonable range with yields greater than that of TNT,\u201d NASA wrote in 2023.<\/p>\n ,<\/p>\n SpaceX released some basic results of its own methalox detonation tests in September, before the government draws its own conclusions on the matter. The company said it conducted \u201cextensive testing\u201d to refine blast danger areas to \u201cbe commensurate with the physics of new launch systems.\u201d<\/p>\n Like the Commercial Space Federation, SpaceX said government officials are relying on \u201chighly conservative approaches to establishing blast danger areas, simply because they lack the data to make refined, accurate clear zones. In the absence of data, clear areas of LOX\/methane rockets have defaulted to very large zones that could be disruptive to operations.\u201d<\/p>\n SpaceX said it has conducted sub-scale methalox detonation tests \u201cin close collaboration with NASA,\u201d while also gathering data from full-scale Starship tests in Starbase, Texas, including information from test flights and from recent ground test failures. SpaceX controls much of the land around its South Texas facility, so there\u2019s little interruption to third parties when Starships launch from there.<\/p>\n \u201cWith this data, SpaceX has been able to establish a scientifically robust, physics-based yield calculation that will help \u2018fill the gap\u2019 in scientific knowledge regarding LOX\/methane rockets,\u201d SpaceX said.<\/p>\n The company did not disclose the yield calculation, but it shared maps showing its proposed clear areas around the future Starship launch sites at Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center. They are significantly smaller than the clear areas originally envisioned by the Space Force and NASA, but SpaceX says it uses \u201cactual test data on explosive yield and include a conservative factor of safety.\u201d<\/p>\n The proposed clear distances will have no effect on any other operational launch site or on traffic on the primary north-south road crossing the spaceport, the company said. \u201cSpaceX looks forward to having an open, honest, and reasonable discussion based on science and data regarding spaceport operations with industry colleagues.\u201d<\/p>\n ,<\/p>\n SpaceX will have that opportunity next month. The Space Force and NASA are convening a \u201creverse industry day\u201d in mid-December during which launch companies will bring their ideas for the future of the Cape Canaveral spaceport to the government. The spaceport has hosted 101 space launches so far this year, an annual record dominated by SpaceX\u2019s rapid-fire Falcon 9 launch cadence.<\/p>\n Chatman anticipates about the same number\u2014perhaps 100 to 115 launches\u2014from Florida\u2019s Space Coast next year, and some forecasts show 300 to 350 launches per year by 2035. The numbers could go down before they rise again. \u201cAs we bring on larger lift capabilities like Starship and follow-on large launch capabilities out here to the Eastern Range, that will reduce the total number of launches, because we can get more mass to orbit with heavier lift vehicles,\u201d Chatman said.<\/p>\n Blue Origin\u2019s first recovered New Glenn booster returned to the company\u2019s launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida, last week after a successful launch and landing.<\/p>\n Credit: Launch companies have some work to do to make those numbers become real. Space Force officials have identified their own potential bottlenecks, including a shortage of facilities for preparing satellites for launch and the flow of commodities like propellants and high-pressure gases into the spaceport.<\/p>\n Concerns as mundane as traffic jams are now enough of a factor to consider using automated scanners at vehicle inspection points and potentially adding a dedicated lane for slow-moving transporters carrying rocket boosters from one place to another across the launch base, according to Chatman. This is becoming more important as SpaceX, and now Blue Origin, routinely shuttle their reusable rockets from place to place.<\/p>\n Space Force officials largely attribute the steep climb in launch rates at Cape Canaveral to the launch industry\u2019s embrace of automated self-destruct mechanisms. These pyrotechnic devices have largely replaced manual flight termination systems, which require ground support from a larger team of range safety engineers, including radar operators and flight control officers with the authority to send a destruct command to the rocket if it flies off course. Now, that is all done autonomously on most US launch vehicles.<\/p>\n The Space Force mandated that launch companies using military spaceports switch to autonomous safety systems by October 1 2025, but military officials issued waivers for human-in-the-loop destruct devices to continue flying on United Launch Alliance\u2019s Atlas V rocket, NASA\u2019s Space Launch System, and the US Navy\u2019s ballistic missile fleet. That means those launches will be more labor-intensive for the Space Force, but the Atlas V is nearing retirement, and the SLS and the Navy only occasionally appear on the Cape Canaveral launch schedule.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The commander of the military unit responsible for running the Cape Canaveral spaceport in Florida expects SpaceX to begin launching Starship rockets there next year. Launch companies with facilities near SpaceX\u2019s Starship pads are not pleased. SpaceX\u2019s two chief rivals, Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance, complained last year that SpaceX\u2019s proposal of launching as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43572,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43569"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43569\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43572"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.arstechnica.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/eis_slc37accesszones.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n SpaceX<\/p>\n<\/figure>\nSpending millions to blow stuff up<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.arstechnica.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/loxch4test.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n SpaceX<\/p>\n<\/figure>\nMore like an airport<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.arstechnica.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/gs1slc36.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n Blue Origin<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n