As Jonathan Roll neared completion of a master\u2019s degree in science and technology policy at Arizona State University three years ago, he did some research into recent developments by China\u2019s ascendant space program. He came away impressed by the country\u2019s growing ambitions.<\/p>\n
Now a full-time research analyst at the university, Roll was recently asked to take a deeper dive into Chinese space plans.<\/p>\n
\u201cI thought I had a pretty good read on this when I was finishing grad school,\u201d Roll told Ars. \u201cThat almost everything needed to be updated, or had changed three years later, was pretty scary. On all these fronts, they\u2019ve made pretty significant progress. They are taking all of the cues from our Western system about what\u2019s really galvanized innovation, and they are off to the races with it.\u201d<\/p>\n
Roll is the co-author of a new report, titled \u201cRedshift,\u201d on the acceleration of China\u2019s commercial and civil space activities and the threat these pose to similar efforts in the United States. Published on Tuesday, the report was sponsored by the US-based Commercial Space Federation, which advocates for the country\u2019s commercial space industry. It is a sobering read and comes as China not only projects to land humans on the lunar surface before the US can return, but also is advancing across several spaceflight fronts to challenge America.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe trend line is unmistakable,\u201d the report states. \u201cChina is not only racing to catch up\u2014it is setting pace, deregulating, and, at times, redefining what leadership looks like on and above Earth. This new space race will not be won with a single breakthrough or headline achievement, but with sustained commitment, clear-eyed vigilance, and a willingness to adapt over decades.\u201d<\/p>\n
,<\/p>\n
The Chinese government made a key decision in 2014, known as \u201cDocument 60,\u201d that allowed native companies to license government technology and for private capital to be used to build civilian space infrastructure. In return, private companies and academics must share new technology with the military when so ordered.<\/p>\n
The report makes a number of key findings about growth over the past decade:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe key takeaway here is that there is an acceleration,\u201d said Dave Cavossa, president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation. \u201cThe United States is still ahead today in a lot of areas in space. But the Chinese are advancing very quickly and poised to overtake us in the next five to 10 years if we don\u2019t do something.\u201d<\/p>\n
,<\/p>\n
The report was sponsored by the commercial space advocacy group, but it is hard to argue with the premise that a lot of the key areas in which the United States remains ahead of China are due to developments by private space companies. Without SpaceX, the number of Chinese launches annually would dwarf activity in the United States, for example. And this extends to other areas of space, including remote sensing and low-Earth orbit telecommunications.<\/p>\n
Cavossa said that to maintain an advantage over China, the United States needs to lean into its strengths\u2014namely the commercial space sector in which private capital and ideas are mingling to produce new advances and push economic activity further into space.<\/p>\n
An executive order signed in August, Enabling Competition in the Commercial Space Industry, was a positive step by the Trump administration, Cavossa said. It aims to streamline launch licensing and regulation.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s other things along the lines of budget battles,\u201d Cavossa said. \u201cWe don\u2019t want to see the US government scaling back its reliance on commercial satellite communications. We don\u2019t want to see them scaling back commercial remote sensing data buys, which is what they\u2019ve been doing, or at least threatening to do. We want to make sure that there\u2019s a seamless transition from the ISS to commercial LEO destinations, and then a transition away from old programs of record to commercial transportation alternatives. That\u2019s what the US government can do and Congress can do here in the next couple of years to make sure that we stay ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n
The bottom line, Cavossa said, is that now represents the last possible opportunity for the United States to make investments that will allow the country\u2019s space industry to remain ahead of China. If not, China will soon reach parity and potentially move ahead, hence the decision to name the report after the wavelength shift of light for objects accelerating away.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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