![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.arstechnica.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/DB-LtSwV0AAmIze.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
A Delta II rocket built by Boeing lifts off June 10, 2003, with NASA\u2019s Spirit rover heading for Mars.<\/p>\n
Credit:
\n NASA<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n
Newcomers entered the launch business in the 1990s. Orbital Sciences debuted its air-launched Pegasus vehicle, which became the first privately developed rocket to reach orbit. SpaceX introduced its small liquid-fueled Falcon 1 rocket in the 2000s, and then the larger Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets in 2010 and 2018. The Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are partially reusable, holding the promise that SpaceX\u2019s rockets would bring about a sharp reduction in the cost of launch.<\/p>\n
,<\/p>\n
Indeed, they have.<\/p>\n
SpaceX is the first company to recover and reuse an orbital rocket\u2019s first stage booster and payload fairings. These two elements represent about 70 percent of the total cost of a Falcon 9 launcher. Reusability and processing improvements at SpaceX\u2019s factory and launch sites have significantly reduced the cost of each Falcon 9 launch.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt one point, SpaceX had publicly said that it was $28 million,\u201d said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, in a live event hosted by Ars last year. \u201cWe believe today that they are below $20 million per launch and actually lower than that\u2026 I would put it in the mid-teens for how much it costs them internally.\u201d<\/p>\n
SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 booster for a record 27th mission earlier this month. \u201cAs they can amortize the cost of the booster over a greater number of missions, that only helps them with their business case,\u201d Henry said.<\/p>\n
Kim uses NASA\u2019s pricing data as the benchmark in his paper because the exact costs incurred by launch providers for each flight are proprietary.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor the launch industry, privatization was expected to lead to more efficient resource allocation, resulting in lower launch prices and thus increasing launch demand,\u201d Kim writes in a summary of his report. These efficiencies include economies of scale, increased production, and competitive pressures, all of which were expected to drive down prices as the industry reached an \u201cequilibrium.\u201d<\/p>\n
These expectations have not borne out. \u201cThe results indicate that NASA\u2019s launch service cost is not decreasing,\u201d Kim writes.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s get to the numbers<\/h2>\n
Over the last few years, SpaceX cited inflation as the reason for steadily increasing the price of a dedicated Falcon 9 launch, from $62 million, to $67 million, and now to $70 million. This suggests SpaceX is selling launches at a significant markup, although the Falcon 9\u2019s list price still undercuts the company\u2019s competitors.<\/p>\n
,<\/p>\n
The complete text of Kim\u2019s paper hasn\u2019t been published yet, but a summary of the report is available online. The study results \u201cshow limited effects of the competitive market\u201d on launch prices, and recommends NASA reassess its policies to foster more competition.<\/p>\n
Companies charge the US government more for launch services than they do for commercial customers. By paying more, NASA and the Space Force get priority on launch schedules, and government engineers have access to internal company data for oversight purposes. NASA and Space Force missions sometimes have special requirements, such as strict payload cleanliness specifications or augmentations to place satellites into unique orbits, meaning they often can\u2019t launch on rideshare missions, which offer cut-rate prices for missions that can fly on them.<\/p>\n NASA\u2019s Europa Clipper mission began with a fiery launch on SpaceX\u2019s Falcon Heavy rocket.<\/p>\n Credit: While launch prices are not publicly available for every NASA mission since 1996, Ars found launch prices paid by NASA for most of the agency\u2019s medium and large science missions from the late 1990s through the mid-2000s. Today, these missions would likely launch on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. Here\u2019s a sample with contract values adjusted for inflation from the date of launch to reflect 2025 dollars:<\/p>\n \u2022 1998: Deep Space 1 \u2014 Delta II rocket \u2014 $86 million<\/p>\n \u2022 1999: Mars Polar Lander \u2014 Delta II rocket \u2014 $88 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2001: Mars Odyssey \u2014 Delta II rocket \u2014 $96 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2003: Spirit and Opportunity Mars rovers \u2014 two Delta II rockets \u2014 $87 million per launch<\/p>\n \u2022 2004: Swift \u2014 Delta II rocket \u2014 $90 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2005: Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter \u2014 Atlas V rocket \u2014 $147 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2007: Phoenix Mars lander \u2014 Delta II rocket \u2014 $132 million<\/p>\n Launch prices for NASA missions soared after the late 2000s, following the creation of United Launch Alliance through a merger of the Atlas and Delta rocket programs developed by Lockheed Martin and Boeing. The merger eliminated competition for most of NASA\u2019s launch contracts until SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 became available for NASA science missions in the mid-2010s. Here\u2019s a sample of missions as examples of the rising costs, with contract values adjusted for inflation from the time of their award to reflect 2025 dollars:<\/p>\n ,<\/p>\n \u2022 2009: Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter \u2014 Atlas V rocket \u2014 $220 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2012: Radiation Belt Storm Probes \u2014 Atlas V rocket \u2014 $226 million (averaged from a bulk buy)<\/p>\n \u2022 2014: Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 \u2014 Delta II rocket \u2014 $191 million (averaged from a bulk buy)<\/p>\n \u2022 2016: OSIRIS-REx asteroid mission \u2014 Atlas V rocket \u2014 $252 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2017: TDRS-M data relay satellite \u2014 Atlas V rocket \u2014 $179 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2017: JPSS-2 weather satellite \u2014 Atlas V rocket \u2014 $224 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2018: InSight Mars lander \u2014 Atlas V rocket \u2014 $220 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2018: ICESAT-2 \u2014 Delta II rocket \u2014 $134 million<\/p>\n Again, the missions listed above would likely launch on SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 rockets if NASA awarded these contracts today. So, how do SpaceX\u2019s more recent Falcon 9 prices compare? Let\u2019s take a look. These contract values are adjusted for inflation from the time of their award to reflect 2025 dollars:<\/p>\n \u2022 2016: Jason 3 oceanography satellite \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $114 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2018: Transiting Exoplanets Survey Satellite \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $118 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2020: Sentinel-6A \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $126 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2021: Double Asteroid Redirection Test \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $86 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2021: Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $62 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2022: Surface Water and Ocean Topography \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $148 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2024: PACE Earth sciences mission \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $99 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2025: SPHEREx astronomy mission \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $99 million<\/p>\n And here are a few future launches NASA has booked to fly on SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 rocket. Some of these contracts were awarded in the last 12 months, and those have not been adjusted for inflation. The others reflect 2025 dollars:<\/p>\n \u2022 2025: Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $134 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2025: Sentinel-6B \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $101 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2027: NEO Surveyor \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $100 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2027: JPSS-4 weather satellite \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $113 million<\/p>\n \u2022 2027: Compton Spectrometer and Imager \u2014 Falcon 9 rocket \u2014 $69 million<\/p>\n There are a few other things worth noting when we chart NASA\u2019s launch prices. One is that SpaceX\u2019s Falcon Heavy, used for NASA\u2019s heaviest missions, costs more than a Falcon 9 rocket. For example, two identical weather satellites launched in 2022 and 2024 on ULA\u2019s Atlas V and SpaceX\u2019s Falcon Heavy rocket for $207 million and $178 million, respectively, again adjusted for inflation.<\/p>\n It\u2019s also instructive to compare NASA\u2019s launch prices for the agency\u2019s three newest nuclear-powered space missions. These spacecraft use plutonium power generators, and their launch vehicles require an additional level of safety certification.<\/p>\n NASA paid ULA the equivalent of $307 million in 2025 dollars for the launch of the Curiosity Mars rover in 2011. NASA\u2019s Perseverance Mars rover launched on an Atlas V rocket in 2020 under a launch contract with ULA valued at $323 million in 2025 dollars. NASA is developing the Dragonfly helicopter for launch to Saturn\u2019s moon Titan in 2028, and the agency awarded SpaceX a $257 million contract last year to launch it on a Falcon Heavy rocket.<\/p>\n ,<\/p>\n A reusable Falcon 9 booster after landing on a SpaceX drone ship in the Atlantic Ocean.<\/p>\n Credit: NASA is paying SpaceX less to launch its newest missions than the agency would have paid ULA to launch them on Delta II or Atlas V rockets a decade ago. That\u2019s the good news. However, despite its mastery of rocket reuse, SpaceX is charging NASA nearly as much for future Falcon 9 launches (an average of $103 million) as it did over the last decade (an average of $107 million).<\/p>\n And the latest average Falcon 9 prices for NASA are higher than those of the expendable Delta II rocket more than 20 years ago.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, ULA hasn\u2019t launched a NASA science mission since 2022, and hasn\u2019t won a contract with NASA\u2019s Launch Services Program since 2019. ULA\u2019s Atlas V rocket is nearing retirement, and the company\u2019s replacement, the Vulcan, only became eligible to compete for NASA launch contracts last year.<\/p>\n This means NASA has lacked competition among US launch providers for several years. ULA\u2019s Vulcan and Blue Origin\u2019s New Glenn rockets are now operational, and they should soon contest SpaceX for NASA launch contracts. But Vulcan and New Glenn lack the long record of reliability of SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and their prices are murky.<\/p>\n The best data available on ULA\u2019s Vulcan launch prices comes from the US Space Force. Between 2020 and 2023, the Space Force awarded dozens of launch contracts to ULA and SpaceX. Those deals average out to $120 million for ULA and $114 million for SpaceX. Earlier this month, the Space Force doled out nine more launch orders for an average of $214 million to ULA and $121 million to SpaceX.<\/p>\n These numbers are comparable to NASA\u2019s recent launch prices and likely foretell SpaceX and ULA pricing trends for the rest of the decade. Despite the promise of competition, NASA may have to wait for the next generation of launchers, such as SpaceX\u2019s Starship, to come online for another step-change in launch prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In an era of reusable rockets and near-daily access to space, NASA is still paying more than it did 30 years ago to launch missions into orbit, according to a study soon to be published in the scientific journal Acta Astronautica. Launch is becoming more routine. Every few days, SpaceX is sending another batch of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":44297,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[509,25,190,316,750],"class_list":["post-44295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-blue-origin","tag-launch","tag-nasa","tag-spacex","tag-united-launch-alliance"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44295"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44295\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.arstechnica.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/KSC-20241014-PH-SPX01_0003large.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n SpaceX<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.arstechnica.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GkLx4V-bUAIwEGZ.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n SpaceX<\/p>\n<\/figure>\nReaching an equilibrium<\/h2>\n