{"id":44328,"date":"2025-04-10T21:09:53","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T13:09:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-productionenv-bjg9h2g2bgg5b8aa.southeastasia-01.azurewebsites.net\/news\/here-are-the-reasons-spacex-won-nearly-all-recent-military-launch-contracts\/"},"modified":"2025-04-10T21:09:53","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T13:09:53","slug":"here-are-the-reasons-spacex-won-nearly-all-recent-military-launch-contracts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/news\/here-are-the-reasons-spacex-won-nearly-all-recent-military-launch-contracts\/","title":{"rendered":"Here are the reasons SpaceX won nearly all recent military launch contracts"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the last week, the US Space Force awarded SpaceX a $5.9 billion deal to make Elon Musk\u2019s space company the Pentagon\u2019s leading launch provider, and then it assigned the vast majority of this year\u2019s most lucrative launch contracts to SpaceX.<\/p>\n

On top of these actions, the Space Force reassigned the launch of a GPS navigation satellite from United Launch Alliance\u2019s long-delayed Vulcan rocket to fly on SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9. ULA, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, is SpaceX\u2019s chief US rival in the market for military satellite launches.<\/p>\n

Given the close relationship between Musk and President Donald Trump, it\u2019s not out of bounds to ask why SpaceX is racking up so many wins. Some plans floated by the Trump administration involving SpaceX in recent months have raised concerns over conflicts of interest.<\/p>\n

Tory Bruno, ULA\u2019s president and CEO, doesn\u2019t seem too worried in his public statements. In a roundtable with reporters this week at the annual Space Symposium conference in Colorado, Bruno was asked about Musk\u2019s ties with Trump.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have not been impacted by our competitor\u2019s position advising the president, certainly not yet,\u201d Bruno said. \u201cI expect that the government will follow all the rules and be fair and follow all the laws, and so we\u2019re behaving that way.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a separate concern whether the Pentagon should predominantly rely on a single provider for access to space, be it a launch company like SpaceX led by a billionaire government insider or a provider like ULA that, so far, hasn\u2019t proven its new Vulcan rocket can meet the Space Force\u2019s schedules.<\/p>\n

Military officials are unanimous in their answer to that question: \u201cNo.\u201d That\u2019s why the Space Force is keen to add to the Pentagon\u2019s roster of launch providers. In the last 12 months, the Space Force has brought Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and Stoke Space to join SpaceX and ULA in the mix for national security launches.<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

Results matter<\/h2>\n

The reason Bruno can say Musk\u2019s involvement in the Trump administration so far hasn\u2019t affected ULA is simple. SpaceX is cheaper and has a ready-made line of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets available to launch the Pentagon\u2019s satellites. ULA\u2019s Vulcan rocket is now certified to launch military payloads, but it reached this important milestone years behind schedule.<\/p>\n

The Pentagon announced Friday that SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin\u2014Jeff Bezos\u2019 space company\u2014won contracts worth $13.7 billion to share responsibilities for launching approximately 54 of the military\u2019s most critical space missions from 2027 through 2032. SpaceX received the lion\u2019s share of the missions with an award for 28 launches, while ULA got 19. Blue Origin, a national security launch business newcomer, will fly seven missions.<\/p>\n

This comes out to a 60-40 split between SpaceX and ULA, not counting Blue Origin\u2019s seven launches, which the Space Force set aside for a third contractor. It\u2019s a reversal of the 60-40 sharing scheme in the last big military launch competition in 2020, when ULA took the top award over SpaceX. Space Force officials anticipate Blue Origin\u2019s New Glenn rocket will be certified for national security missions next year, allowing it to begin winning launch task orders.<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tory Bruno, president and CEO of United Launch Alliance, speaks with reporters at NASA\u2019s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on May 6, 2024.<\/p>\n

Credit:
\n Paul Hennessy\/Anadolu via Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

Bruno said he wasn\u2019t surprised with the outcome of this year\u2019s launch competition, known as Phase 3 of the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program. \u201cWe\u2019re happy to get it,\u201d he said Monday.<\/p>\n

\u201cI felt that winning 60 percent the first time was a little bit of an upset,\u201d Bruno said of the 2020 competition with SpaceX. \u201cI believe they expected to win 60 then \u2026 Therefore, I believed this time around that they would compete that much harder, and that I was not going to price dive in order to guarantee a win.\u201d<\/p>\n

While we know roughly how many launches each company will get from the Space Force, the military hasn\u2019t determined which specific missions will fly with ULA, SpaceX, or Blue Origin. Once per year, the Space Force will convene a \u201cmission assignment board\u201d to divvy up individual task orders.<\/p>\n

Simply geography<\/h2>\n

Officials announced Monday that this year\u2019s assignment board awarded seven missions to SpaceX and two launches to ULA. The list includes six Space Force missions and three for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).<\/p>\n

SpaceX\u2019s seven wins are worth a combined $845.8 million, with an average price of $120.8 million per launch. Three will fly on Falcon 9 rockets, and four will launch on SpaceX\u2019s Falcon Heavy.<\/p>\n

    \n
  • NROL-97 on a Falcon Heavy from Cape Canaveral<\/li>\n
  • USSF-15 (GPS IIIF-3) on a Falcon Heavy from Cape Canaveral<\/li>\n
  • USSF-174 on a Falcon Heavy from Cape Canaveral<\/li>\n
  • USSF-186 on a Falcon Heavy from Cape Canaveral<\/li>\n
  • USSF-234 on a Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral<\/li>\n
  • NROL-96 on a Falcon 9 from Vandenberg<\/li>\n
  • NROL-157 on a Falcon 9 from Vandenberg<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    ,<\/p>\n

    The Space Force\u2019s two orders to ULA are valued at $427.6 million, averaging $213.8 million per mission. Both missions will launch from Florida, one with a GPS navigation satellite to medium-Earth orbit and another with a next-generation geosynchronous missile warning satellite named NGG-2.<\/p>\n

      \n
    • USSF-49 (GPS IIIF-2) on a Vulcan from Cape Canaveral<\/li>\n
    • USSF-50 (NGG-2) on a Vulcan from Cape Canaveral<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      So, why did ULA only get 22 percent of this year\u2019s task orders instead of something closer to 40 percent? It turns out ULA was not eligible for two of these missions because the company\u2019s West Coast launch pad for the Vulcan rocket is still under construction at Vandenberg Space Force Base. The Space Force won\u2019t assign specific West Coast missions to ULA until the launch pad is finished and certified, according to Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, chief of the Space Force\u2019s \u201cAssured Access to Space\u201d office.<\/p>\n

      Vandenberg, a military facility on the Southern California coast, has a wide range of open ocean to the south, perfect for rockets delivering payloads into polar orbits. Rockets flown out of Cape Canaveral typically fly to the east on trajectories useful for launching satellites into the GPS network or into geosynchronous orbit.<\/p>\n

      \u201cA company can be certified for a subset of missions while it continues to work on meeting the certification criteria for the broader set of missions,\u201d Panzenhagen said. \u201cIn this case, ULA was not certified for West Coast launches yet. They\u2019re working on that.\u201d<\/p>\n

      Because of this rule, SpaceX won task orders for the NROL-96 and NROL-157 missions by default.<\/p>\n

      The Space Force\u2019s assignment of the USSF-15 mission to SpaceX makes some sense, too. Going forward, the Space Force wants to have Vulcan and Falcon Heavy as options for adding to the GPS network. This will be the first GPS payload to launch on Falcon Heavy, allowing SpaceX engineers to complete a raft of upfront analysis and integration work. Engineers won\u2019t have to repeat this work on future Falcon Heavy flights carrying identical GPS satellites.<\/p>\n

      ,<\/p>\n

      From monopoly to niche<\/h2>\n

      A decade ago, ULA was the sole launch provider to deploy the Pentagon\u2019s fleet of surveillance, communication, and navigation satellites. The Air Force certified SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9 rocket for national security missions in May 2015, opening the market for competition for the first time since Boeing and Lockheed Martin merged their rocket divisions to create ULA in 2006.<\/p>\n

      ULA\u2019s monopoly, which Bruno acknowledged, has now eroded into making the company a niche player in the military launch market.<\/p>\n

      \u201cA monopoly is not healthy,\u201d he said. \u201cWe were one for a few years before I came to ULA, and that was because no one else had the capability, and there weren\u2019t that many missions. There weren\u2019t enough to support many providers. There are now, so this is better.\u201d<\/p>\n

      There are at least a couple of important reasons the Space Force is flying more missions than 10 or 20 years ago.<\/p>\n

      One is that Pentagon officials believe the United States is now in competition with a near-peer great power, China, with a rapidly growing presence in space. Military leaders say this requires more US hardware in orbit. Another is that the cost of launching something into space is lower than it was when ULA enjoyed its dominant position. SpaceX has led the charge in reducing the cost of accessing space, thanks to its success in pioneering reusable commercial rockets.<\/p>\n

      Many of the new types of missions the Space Force plans to launch in the next few years will go to low-Earth orbit (LEO), a region of space a few hundred miles above the planet. There, the Space Force plans to deploy hundreds of satellites for a global missile detection, missile tracking, and data relay network. Eventually, the military may place hundreds or more space-based interceptors in LEO as part of the \u201cGolden Dome\u201d missile defense program pushed by the Trump administration.<\/p>\n

      \n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

      United Launch Alliance\u2019s second Vulcan rocket underwent a countdown dress rehearsal last year.<\/p>\n

      Credit:
      \n United Launch Alliance<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

      Traditionally, the military has operated missile tracking and communications satellites in much higher geosynchronous orbits some 22,000 miles (36,000 kilometers) over the equator. At that altitude, satellites revolve around the Earth at the same speed as the planet\u2019s rotation, allowing a spacecraft to maintain a constant vigil over the same location.<\/p>\n

      ,<\/p>\n

      The Space Force still has a few of those kinds of missions to launch, along with mobile, globe-trotting surveillance satellites and eavesdropping signals intelligence spy platforms for the National Reconnaissance Office. Bruno argues ULA\u2019s Vulcan rocket, despite being more expensive, is best suited for these bespoke missions. So far, the Space Force\u2019s awards seem to bear it out.<\/p>\n

      \u201cOur rocket has a unique niche within this marketplace,\u201d Bruno said. \u201cThere really are two kinds of missions from the rocket\u2019s standpoint. There are ones where you drop off in LEO, and there are ones where you drop off in higher orbits. You design your rockets differently for that. It doesn\u2019t mean we can\u2019t drop off in LEO, it doesn\u2019t mean [SpaceX] can\u2019t drop off in a higher energy orbit, but we\u2019re more efficient at those because we designed for that.\u201d<\/p>\n

      There\u2019s some truth in that argument. The Vulcan rocket\u2019s upper stage, called the Centaur V, burns liquid hydrogen fuel with better fuel efficiency than the kerosene-fueled engine on SpaceX\u2019s upper stage. And SpaceX must use the more expensive Falcon Heavy rocket for the most demanding missions, expending the rocket\u2019s core booster to devote more propellant toward driving the payload into orbit.<\/p>\n

      SpaceX has launched at a rate nearly 34 times higher than United Launch Alliance since the start of 2023, but ULA has more experience with high-energy missions, featuring more complex maneuvers to place military payloads directly into geosynchronous orbit, and sometimes releasing multiple payloads at different locations in the geosynchronous belt.<\/p>\n

      This is one of the most challenging mission profiles for any rocket, requiring a high-endurance upper stage, like Vulcan\u2019s Centaur V, capable of cruising through space for eight or more hours.<\/p>\n

      SpaceX has flown a long-duration version of its upper stage on several missions by adding an extended mission kit. This gives the rocket longer battery life and a custom band of thermal paint to help ensure its kerosene fuel does not freeze in the cold environment of space.<\/p>\n

      \n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

      A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket rolls to the launch pad in Florida in June 2024. The rocket\u2019s upper stage sports a strip of gray thermal paint to keep propellants at the proper temperature for a long-duration cruise through space.<\/p>\n

      Credit:
      \n SpaceX<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

      On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of SpaceX\u2019s missions target low-Earth orbit, where Falcon 9 rockets deploy Starlink Internet satellites, send crews and cargo to the International Space Station, and regularly launch multi-payload rideshare missions. These launches maximize the Falcon 9\u2019s efficiencies with booster recovery and reuse. SpaceX is proficient and prolific with these missions, launching them every couple of days. Launch, land, repeat.<\/em><\/p>\n

      ,<\/p>\n

      \u201cThey tend to be more efficient at the LEO drop-offs, I\u2019ll be honest about that,\u201d Bruno said. \u201cThat means there\u2019s a competitive space in the middle, and then there\u2019s kind of these end cases. So, we\u2019ll keep winning when it\u2019s way over in our space, they will win when it\u2019s way over in theirs, and then in the middle it\u2019s kind of a toss-up for any given mission.\u201d<\/p>\n

      Recent history seems to support Bruno\u2019s hypothesis. Last year, SpaceX and ULA competed head-to-head for nine specific launch contracts, or task orders, in a different Space Force competition. The launches will place national security satellites into low-Earth orbit, and SpaceX won all nine of them. Since 2020, ULA has won more Space Force task orders than SpaceX for high-energy missions, although the inverse was true in this year\u2019s round of launch orders.<\/p>\n

      The military\u2019s launch contracting strategy gives the Space Force flexibility to swap payloads between rockets, add more missions, or deviate from the 60-40 share to SpaceX and ULA. This has precedent. Between 2020 and 2024, ULA received 54 percent of military launches, short of the 60 percent anticipated in their original contract. This amounted to ULA winning three fewer task orders, or a lost value of about $350 million, because of delays in development of the Vulcan rocket.<\/p>\n

      That\u2019s the cost of doing business with the Pentagon. Military officials don\u2019t want their satellites sitting on the ground. The national policy of assured access to space materialized after the Challenger <\/em>accident in 1986. NASA grounded the Space Shuttle for two-and-a-half years, and the military had no other way to put its largest satellites into orbit, leading the Pentagon to accelerate development of new versions of the Atlas, Delta, and Titan rockets dating back to the 1960s.<\/p>\n

      Military and intelligence officials were again stung by a spate of failures with the Titan IV in the 1990s, when it was the only heavy-lift launcher in the Pentagon\u2019s inventory. Then, ULA\u2019s Delta IV Heavy rocket was the sole heavy-lifter available to the military for nearly two decades. Today, the Space Force has two heavy-lift options and may have a third soon with Blue Origin\u2019s New Glenn rocket.<\/p>\n

      This all has the added benefit of bringing down costs, according to Col. Doug Pentecost, deputy director of the Space Force\u2019s Assured Access to Space directorate.<\/p>\n

      \u201cIf you bundle a bunch of missions together, you can get a better price point,\u201d he said. \u201cWe awarded $13.7 billion. We thought this was going to cost us 15.5, so we saved $1.7 billion with this competition, showing that we have great industry out there trying to do good stuff for us.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      In the last week, the US Space Force awarded SpaceX a $5.9 billion deal to make Elon Musk\u2019s space company the Pentagon\u2019s leading launch provider, and then it assigned the vast majority of this year\u2019s most lucrative launch contracts to SpaceX. On top of these actions, the Space Force reassigned the launch of a GPS […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":44330,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2539,1045,316,750],"class_list":["post-44328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-donald-trump","tag-elon-musk","tag-spacex","tag-united-launch-alliance"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44328"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44328"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44328\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44330"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}