{"id":44772,"date":"2025-01-28T00:56:01","date_gmt":"2025-01-27T16:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-productionenv-bjg9h2g2bgg5b8aa.southeastasia-01.azurewebsites.net\/news\/with-successful-new-glenn-flight-blue-origin-may-finally-be-turning-the-corner\/"},"modified":"2025-01-28T00:56:01","modified_gmt":"2025-01-27T16:56:01","slug":"with-successful-new-glenn-flight-blue-origin-may-finally-be-turning-the-corner","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/news\/with-successful-new-glenn-flight-blue-origin-may-finally-be-turning-the-corner\/","title":{"rendered":"With successful New Glenn flight, Blue Origin may finally be turning the corner"},"content":{"rendered":"

If one were to observe that I have written critically about Blue Origin over the last half-decade, they would not be wrong.<\/p>\n

The reality is that the space company founded by Jeff Bezos has underperformed. Its chief executive for most of this time, Bob Smith, was poorly regarded by his employees. He brought the worst of \u201cold space\u201d tendencies to Blue Origin from Honeywell. And under Smith\u2019s leadership, Blue was litigious, slow, and unproductive.<\/p>\n

Frankly, it was a bad look for Bezos. He was pumping something on the order of $2 billion a year into Blue Origin for what, exactly? Lawsuits against NASA? Jokes about BE-4 rocket engine delays?<\/p>\n

Ars published critical articles about Blue Origin because the company could be so much more, and the Western spaceflight community desperately wants a second new space contender to challenge SpaceX\u2019s increasingly dominant position.<\/p>\n

Finally, about 18 months ago, Bezos moved on from Bob Smith. He installed a long-time lieutenant from Amazon, Dave Limp, to get Blue Origin moving forward. Although there were concerns about Limp\u2019s background, which included little aerospace experience, it now seems clear that he has taken a strong hand at Blue since he took over the reins in December 2023.<\/p>\n

In the time I have spent with him, Limp seems energetic, enthused, and committed to turning the ship around at Blue Origin. He has made it clear that the mandate he received from Bezos is to execute on the company\u2019s programs\u2014and to do so with urgency.<\/p>\n

\u201cEverybody believes in this mission,\u201d Limp said of Blue Origin\u2019s plans to enable millions of people to live and work in space. \u201cSo that was kind of the foundation which you could build a house on. But I think that getting the organization a little bit more focused was critical. We had a lot of balls in the air. We still do, but it was important to make sure that the organization knows what the priorities were for us this year. We weren\u2019t getting anywhere without engines and without New Glenn.\u201d<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

When I met with Limp and Bezos earlier this month on a balcony overlooking the main factory in Florida where future New Glenn rockets are built, there did seem to be a clear sense of urgency. Several times during our interview, one of us had to speak up to be heard over the clanging of this or banging of that.<\/p>\n

Days later, the New Glenn rocket took flight for the first time. The flight was a smashing success, with both the rocket\u2019s first and second stages performing nominally, an impressive achievement for a company\u2019s first orbital launch attempt. Although the first stage was not recovered, it was not expected to be on the first try.<\/p>\n

Many aerospace engineers and technicians will tell you that a rocket company doesn\u2019t become a real rocket company until it reaches orbit. Well, by that definition, Blue Origin is now a real rocket company. And with Limp\u2019s leadership and Bezos\u2019 renewed energy and enthusiasm, the successful launch appears to mark a critical moment for Blue looking ahead.<\/p>\n

So where are they going?<\/h2>\n

The near-term step is clear: getting better at building engines and rockets and flying New Glenn regularly. At times during his remarks, Bezos sounded a lot like SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who has spoken about \u201cbuilding the machine that builds the machine\u201d over the last decade with respect to both Tesla vehicles and SpaceX rockets.<\/p>\n

Asked about Blue\u2019s current priorities, Bezos responded, \u201cRate manufacturing and driving urgency around the machine that makes the machine.\u201d<\/p>\n

He noted that Blue Origin built a factory in Huntsville, Alabama, but it took time to get it up and running, and then running efficiently. \u201cSame thing here with the second stage,\u201d he said, referring to the New Glenn factory in Florida. \u201cWe need to produce a lot of second stages. And we need to produce a lot of booster stages, too. We\u2019re completely vertically integrated, so it\u2019s making those valves, it\u2019s making the igniters. There needs to be rate manufacturing of everything you can imagine that goes into a rocket.\u201d<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Seven BE-4 engines burn methane on the way to orbit.<\/p>\n

Credit:
\n Blue Origin<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

One of the key questions about Blue Origin is whether it will push toward full reusability with New Glenn. In 2021, Ars first reported on an effort codenamed \u201cProject Jarvis\u201d to develop a stainless steel upper stage that could be reused. The company even built a test tank, although the effort was eventually shelved.<\/p>\n

The current upper stage of the rocket uses two BE-3U engines and is 23 meters (77 feet) tall. Multiple sources have said the upper stage is expensive, at least in its initial configuration, and that this significantly inflates the cost of building New Glenn. Bezos said the company would \u201ccompete\u201d two solutions to this problem against one another: developing a reusable upper stage or driving down the manufacturing cost of the stage.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you can drive your manufacturing costs low enough in rate manufacturing\u2014if you ever get to a really well-oiled machine that makes the machine\u2014it\u2019s possible that, because of the performance increase that you get with an expendable upper stage, that could be the right solution for a long time,\u201d Bezos said. \u201cSo we\u2019re going to try to make the expendable upper stage so cheap to manufacture that a reusable stage can never compete with it. And we\u2019re going to try to make the reusable stage so operable that an expendable stage can never compete with it.\u201d<\/p>\n

This competition will play out over the coming years as Blue Origin seeks to ramp up its launch cadence. \u201cWe\u2019ll see which one wins,\u201d Bezos said. \u201cIt\u2019s not something that you can do on paper. You just have to try both.\u201d<\/p>\n

Blue Origin has not disclosed its internal costs to produce New Glenn, but with seven main engines on the booster stage, it\u2019s likely not cheap. From talking to Bezos and Limp, it\u2019s clear they want to drive down those costs.<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is still a lot of room with these heavy lift vehicles to reduce cost even further,\u201d Limp said. \u201cTo get a kilogram to any orbit or to the lunar surface, we\u2019ve got to take two orders of magnitude out of the cost. If you think about what happened in the automotive industry or television industry, you can really crank down costs. So this is the very beginning of that.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s still day one<\/h2>\n

Blue Origin\u2019s motto is \u201cGradatim Ferociter,\u201d which is Latin for \u201cStep by Step, Ferociously.\u201d (We\u2019re big fans of Latin at Ars. If you\u2019ve ever stumbled over the name of the site, it\u2019s Latin for \u201cthe art of technology,\u201d which is what we cover.)<\/p>\n

The long-running joke in the space industry is that we\u2019d all like to see a little less \u201cgradatim\u201d and a little more \u201cferociter\u201d from Blue Origin. The company\u2019s coat of arms\u2014yes, it has one\u2014prominently features two turtles. A turtle logo is also stamped onto a New Shepard spacecraft after every mission. This is a reference to one of Aesop\u2019s Fables, \u201cThe Tortoise and the Hare,\u201d in which the slow and steady tortoise wins the race.<\/p>\n

Bezos clearly believes Blue Origin is the tortoise that will win the space race.<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Blue Origin\u2019s coat of arms.<\/p>\n

Credit:
\n Blue Origin<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

When someone points out that Blue Origin has existed for nearly a quarter of a century, defenders of the company will say that Blue spent the first decade of that time largely operating as a think tank. Although this is, to some extent, true, Blue Origin was developing hardware by around 2005. From my reporting on the early years of SpaceX, I spoke with multiple engineers who were poached by Blue Origin or vice versa. There was a hot competition for the sharpest rocket scientists coming out of the best schools during this time. So yes, Blue Origin started as a think tank, and it remained small, but it absolutely has been developing hardware for two decades now.<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

And what deliverables does it have to show for this? Its suborbital launch system, New Shepard, has flown 28 missions. Four of its BE-4 rocket engines have powered two launches of United Launch Alliance\u2019s Vulcan rocket to orbit. And there was this month\u2019s New Glenn launch.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s it.<\/p>\n

It feels almost cruel to compare Blue Origin to SpaceX, which would be the \u201chare\u201d in this fable. But it\u2019s necessary to do so. Founded in 2002, a couple of years after Blue Origin, SpaceX has launched about 450 orbital rockets to Blue Origin\u2019s one. It has put nearly six dozen astronauts into orbit, saving NASA from having to rely on Russia at a time of heightened geopolitical tension. Its Starlink constellation of more than 7,000 satellites delivers broadband Internet around the world. SpaceX is also developing the largest rocket in the world, Starship, with the aim of full reusability.<\/p>\n

When I wrote Reentry<\/em>, my book about the Falcon 9 era at SpaceX, I spoke with someone who had worked at both companies. I asked them what the biggest difference between the two environments was. The quote, from the time period long before Limp became chief executive, reveals the magnitude of the challenge.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey are the world\u2019s largest single-donor nonprofit,\u201d this person told me of Blue Origin. \u201cThere is zero incentive to operate like SpaceX. Like, zero. I know I\u2019m going to get fed no matter what. The doors will never close. They start off with a huge disadvantage there. When you have a funding model like that, you attract the dreamer who says, \u2018Where can I go to work on something crazy and make a good salary at 40 hours a week? Where can you work on a space elevator and get paid? Who are the types of people who want to work on space elevators?\u2019 So there\u2019s a selection bias. You need to take extraordinary measures to account for that, and they don\u2019t have them.\u201d<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

In Blue Origin\u2019s defense, the products they have delivered have been of high quality. New Shepard has set the bar for suborbital space tourism. The BE-4 engine has performed excellently. And, of course, New Glenn performed well on its first flight.<\/p>\n

But there are many people in the industry who would like to see Blue Origin move much faster, and indeed, to come close to SpaceX, it must do exactly that. I asked Bezos about this.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would say, \u2018Stay tuned,\u2019\u201d he said. \u201cThis is the very beginning of the Space Age. When the history is finally written hundreds of years from now, the 1960s will be a certain kind of beginning, and [there were] certainly incredible accomplishments. But now we\u2019re really getting started. That was kind of pulled forward from its natural time, the space race with the Soviets. And now is the time when the real movement, the kind of golden age of space, is going to happen. It\u2019s still absolutely day one. There are going to be multiple winners. SpaceX is going to be successful. Blue Origin is going to be successful. And there are other companies who haven\u2019t even been founded yet that are going to grow into fantastic, giant space companies. So the vision that I think people should have is that this is the absolute beginning.\u201d<\/p>\n

Next steps<\/h2>\n

When one walks through the New Glenn factory in Florida, the impressive scale is inescapable. Critically, the company appears to be hardware-rich, with multiple first and second stages in various states of work. When Bezos talks about launching several more times this year, it seems plausible.<\/p>\n

In the lobby of the main building, there\u2019s a mock-up of the company\u2019s first lunar lander, Mark 1. It towers three stories tall. It\u2019s massive.<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s the small one,\u201d Bezos commented. \u201cMark 2 is twice as tall and twice as wide.\u201d<\/p>\n

These are impressive vehicles, built on a large scale. They\u2019re important first steps toward delivering cargo\u2014Mark 1 could launch within the next 12 to 18 months\u2014and eventually crew. But none of these next steps can happen without New Glenn as the foundational first step. That\u2019s why this month\u2019s launch was so important.<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Jeff Bezos (second from right) converses with guests, including Ivanka Trump (L) and Elon Musk (second from left), at a candlelight dinner for US President-elect Donald Trump at the National Building Museum on January 19, 2025, in Washington.<\/p>\n

Credit:
\n Anna Moneymaker\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

Bezos is clearly thinking through all this methodically. First, develop the road to space. And once you have that, what\u2019s next? You need to learn to live off the land.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn my mind, the next big step is in situ resource development,\u201d he said. \u201cSo that\u2019s really a big unlock. For example, if you can make propellant on the Moon, that\u2019s a really big deal. You know, lifting a kilogram of mass off the Moon takes 25 times less energy than lifting a kilogram of mass off Earth. So if you\u2019re talking about moving about the Solar System, being able to get propellants and other materials, construction materials and so on from heavenly bodies is a big deal.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a great vision, and it\u2019s nice to finally see Blue taking the first steps. What happens next will come down to Bezos\u2019 will, his finances, and whatever path the US government decides to follow.<\/p>\n

Days after New Glenn\u2019s first launch, Bezos attended the inauguration of Donald Trump, standing near Musk. The founder of SpaceX played a major role in getting Trump elected and has been advising him on space policy.<\/p>\n

Bezos and Musk, the tortoise and the hare, appeared chatty and friendly in a way that has not been the norm for the rivals. More commonly, they have sniped at one another rather than chummed it up. Perhaps now, they\u2019ll team up to help America spread among the stars.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see. Musk is interested in Mars, and Bezos is more fixated on the Moon. Ultimately, Trump may tell them both to follow their hearts, with the US government coming along for the ride.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If one were to observe that I have written critically about Blue Origin over the last half-decade, they would not be wrong. The reality is that the space company founded by Jeff Bezos has underperformed. Its chief executive for most of this time, Bob Smith, was poorly regarded by his employees. He brought the worst […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":44773,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[509,21],"class_list":["post-44772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-blue-origin","tag-space"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44772"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44772\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44773"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}