{"id":45114,"date":"2024-06-12T20:08:07","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T12:08:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-productionenv-bjg9h2g2bgg5b8aa.southeastasia-01.azurewebsites.net\/news\/lets-unpack-some-questions-about-russias-role-in-north-koreas-rocket-program\/"},"modified":"2024-06-12T20:08:07","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T12:08:07","slug":"lets-unpack-some-questions-about-russias-role-in-north-koreas-rocket-program","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/news\/lets-unpack-some-questions-about-russias-role-in-north-koreas-rocket-program\/","title":{"rendered":"Let\u2019s unpack some questions about Russia\u2019s role in North Korea\u2019s rocket program"},"content":{"rendered":"

Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly visit North Korea later this month, and you can bet collaboration on missiles and space programs will be on the agenda.<\/p>\n

The bilateral summit in Pyongyang will follow a mysterious North Korean rocket launch on May 27, which ended in a fireball over the Yellow Sea. The fact that this launch fell short of orbit is not unusual\u2014two of the country\u2019s three previous satellite launch attempts failed. But North Korea\u2019s official state news agency dropped some big news in the last paragraph of its report on the May 27 launch.<\/p>\n

The Korean Central News Agency called the launch vehicle a \u201cnew-type satellite carrier rocket\u201d and attributed the likely cause of the failure to \u201cthe reliability of operation of the newly developed liquid oxygen + petroleum engine\u201d on the first stage booster. A small North Korean military spy satellite was destroyed. The fiery demise of the North Korean rocket was captured in a video recorded by the Japanese news broadcaster NHK.<\/p>\n

Petroleum almost certainly means kerosene, a refined petroleum fuel used on a range of rockets, including SpaceX\u2019s Falcon 9, United Launch Alliance\u2019s Atlas V, and Russia\u2019s Soyuz and Angara.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe North Koreans are clearly toying with us,\u201d said Jeffrey Lewis, a nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. \u201cThey went out of their way to tell us what the propellant was, which is very deliberate because it\u2019s a short statement and they don\u2019t normally do that. They made a point of doing that, so I suspect they want us to be wondering what\u2019s going on.\u201d<\/p>\n

Surprise from Sohae<\/h2>\n

Veteran observers of North Korea\u2019s rocket program anticipated the country\u2019s next satellite launch would use the same Chollima-1 rocket it used on three flights last year. But North Korea\u2019s official statement suggests this was something different, and entirely unexpected, at least by anyone without access to classified information.<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

Ahead of the launch, North Korea released warning notices outlining the drop zones downrange where sections of the rocket would fall into the sea after lifting off from Sohae Satellite Launching Station on the country\u2019s northwestern coast.<\/p>\n

A day before the May 27 launch, South Korea\u2019s Yonhap news agency reported a \u201clarge number of Russian experts\u201d entered North Korea to support the launch effort. A senior South Korean defense official told Yonhap that North Korea staged more rocket engine tests than expected during the run-up to the May 27 flight.<\/p>\n

Then, North Korea announced that this wasn\u2019t just another flight of the Chollima-1 rocket but something new. The Chollima 1 used the same mix of hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide propellants as North Korea\u2019s ballistic missiles. This combination of toxic propellants has the benefit of simplicity\u2014these liquids are hypergolic, meaning they combust upon contact with one another. No ignition source is needed.<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A television monitor at a train station in South Korea shows an image of the launch of North Korea\u2019s Chollima-1 rocket last year.<\/p>\n

Credit:
\n Kim Jae-Hwan\/SOPA Images\/LightRocket via Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

Kerosene and liquid oxygen are nontoxic and more fuel-efficient. But liquid oxygen has to be kept at super-cold temperatures, requiring special handling and insulation to prevent boil-off as it is loaded into the rocket.<\/p>\n

Complicated rocket science<\/h2>\n

Putin\u2019s upcoming trip to North Korea, first reported by Russia\u2019s Vedomosti newspaper, will reciprocate North Korean leader Kim Jong Un\u2019s trip to the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia\u2019s Far East last September. At Vostochny, Russia\u2019s newest space launch site, Kim saw hardware and infrastructure for the Russian Angara rocket and discussed cooperation on military matters. When asked whether Russia would help North Korea launch a satellite, Putin replied: \u201cThat\u2019s why we\u2019re here.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since then, US officials have released evidence Russia has used ballistic missiles produced in North Korea in its war against Ukraine. In exchange for missiles and other military munitions, Russia has shipped oil, corn, wheat, and other food products to North Korea. But Russia\u2019s support doesn\u2019t end there. A White House spokesperson said earlier this year that North Korea is seeking military assistance from Russia in violation of international sanctions, \u201cincluding fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment or materials, and other advanced technologies.\u201d<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

Diplomats engaged in a back-and-forth debate on Russia\u2019s cooperation with North Korea during a May 31 meeting of the United Nations Security Council.<\/p>\n

Hwang Joon-kook, South Korea\u2019s ambassador to the UN, said it\u2019s natural to suspect Russia assisted in the failed rocket launch last month, and such technical cooperation would violate multiple Security Council resolutions. He raised questions about North Korea\u2019s use of new propellants.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere simply cannot be such a quantum leap in highly complicated rocket science in such a short period of time, and therefore, it is natural that we suspect possible technology transfer,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Lewis agrees. \u201cIt seems very likely to me that the shift in propellant type is a function of the access to Russia and Russian technology,\u201d he told Ars. \u201cIt\u2019s hard to otherwise explain why they would have given up on a space launcher design that they just tested a year ago,\u201d he said, referring to the Chollima-1, which failed on its first two flights but then successfully put a North Korean satellite into orbit last November.<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hwang Joon-kook, the South Korean ambassador to the United Nations, speaks during a meeting of the UN Security Council in January.<\/p>\n

Credit:
\n Selcuk Acar\/Anadolu via Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

Russia\u2019s deputy permanent representative to the UN, Anna Evstigneeva, said her country\u2019s cooperation with North Korea is \u201cexclusively constructive and lawful in nature. It does not threaten or violate anyone, and it will continue.\u201d Her statement in the UN Security Council is inconsistent with the evidence of Russia\u2019s use of North Korean weapons in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

North Korea launched its first satellite in 2012 with a modified ballistic missile after several failed tries, then repeated the feat in 2016 and with the new Chollima-1 rocket in 2023.<\/p>\n

So far, though, there\u2019s no proof of exactly what, if any, assistance Russia has offered North Korea\u2019s space program. Until now, all of North Korea\u2019s satellite launch attempts have used rockets derived from the country\u2019s missile program, using the same boosters and engines that could power nuclear warheads to distant targets in the United States.<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

This path toward spaceflight mirrors the way the US, the Soviet Union, and China developed their first satellite launch vehicles. The Soviets modified the R-7, the world\u2019s first intercontinental ballistic missile, to launch the Sputnik satellite in 1957. The first US satellite, Explorer I, was launched on a rocket derived from the Jupiter medium-range missile.<\/p>\n

Some early ballistic missiles used the same kerosene and liquid oxygen, or kerolox, propellants as North Korea\u2019s new launcher, then second-generation Cold War-era missiles transitioned to use hypergolic fuel. Most modern long-range ballistic missiles use solid propellant, which is generally more reliable and has the advantage of being available for use at a moment\u2019s notice.<\/p>\n

North Korea is in the process of making the switchover from hypergolic to solid fuel in its military\u2019s missile program, a change that could add to the country\u2019s ability to mount an attack. However, the introduction of a new kerolox engine would not necessarily be applicable to North Korean missiles.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou could make a terrible missile out of it, but why would you do that when you already have a much better propellant combination in a perfectly serviceable engine,\u201d Lewis said.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, though, a reliable kerolox rocket could improve North Korea\u2019s ability to put larger satellites into orbit that can spy from space. So far, US and South Korean officials have said North Korea\u2019s satellites have shown little military utility.<\/p>\n

Double-dipping on the Korean peninsula?<\/h2>\n

The extent of Russia\u2019s supposed collaboration on North Korea\u2019s new rocket remains a mystery, but it wouldn\u2019t be the first time Russia has exported rocket technology to the region.<\/p>\n

In the nascent days of South Korea\u2019s space launch program, Russia supplied liquid-fueled boosters for three flights of the Naro-1 rocket, a stepping stone to South Korea\u2019s all-domestic Nuri launcher. The Naro-1 launched three times, and finally succeeded to become the first rocket launched from South Korea to reach orbit in 2013.<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

Khrunichev, one of Russia\u2019s oldest aerospace contractors, manufactured the entire first stage for each Naro-1 rocket, complete with a kerosene-fueled engine. The boosters are similar to those used on Russia\u2019s Angara rocket, which uses the same kerolox propellant mix as the new North Korean rocket.<\/p>\n

It just so happens that Kim Jong Un saw parts for the Angara rocket, including its RD-191 engine, when he visited the Vostochny Cosmodrome with Putin last year. Because there have been no signs that North Korea was developing its own kerolox engine, there is widespread speculation that Russia either exported an engine or, perhaps less likely, sent engineers to help the North Koreans build their own.<\/p>\n

In either case, swapping one type of engine for another on a rocket is no simple task, particularly if they\u2019re using different propellants. The booster stage that North Korea launched last month with the new kerolox engine probably has a different design than the hypergolic Chollima-1. This would surely take longer than the eight-and-a-half months since Kim\u2019s trip to Russia.<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The Naro-1 rocket, made with a Russian booster and South Korean upper stage, lifts off on a 2010 mission.<\/p>\n

Credit:
\n Photo by Kim Ki-Nam-pool\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

\u201cIt could have been that the Russians exported a whole booster and it just didn\u2019t work because it\u2019s rocket science, and sometimes that happens,\u201d Lewis said. \u201cIf I were the Russians and I wanted to troll, I would export exactly the same thing [to North Korea that] I exported to South Korea.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt could be that the Russians gave them an engine, or gave them some help, and it was a crash program and it failed,\u201d he said. \u201cIt could be that this program has existed for a long time, and we just never knew about it, and the Russians helped them get over the finish line.<\/p>\n

,<\/p>\n

\u201cI think all of those things are possible,\u201d Lewis said. \u201cIt is just very notable that they have switched propellant types.\u201d<\/p>\n

Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and renowned tracker of spaceflight activities, suggested North Korea may have covertly developed a new rocket engine, with or without Russian help. \u201cI agree this isn\u2019t something they just started to work on a few months ago,\u201d he told Ars.<\/p>\n

North Korea has rushed rockets to the launch pad before, sometimes catching US intelligence officials by surprise. On many of these occasions, the rockets failed on their first test flights. \u201cWhen a country is willing to take significant technical risk, then the timelines get compressed,\u201d Lewis said.<\/p>\n

In recent years, North Korea has been more forthcoming about its launch failures than in the early years of its launch program. Last year, the country\u2019s state news agency published photos of the Chollima-1 rocket, even while admitting it failed in flight. However, North Korea released no images of its new rocket after its May 27 launch.<\/p>\n

Perhaps North Korean officials are withholding photos until the new rocket has a successful launch, or maybe Putin and Kim will discuss the launch during their meeting later this month. If North Korea clams up about the new rocket, US officials might disclose more about what they know.<\/p>\n

\u201cThen we\u2019ll be able to work out how North Korean it is and how Russian it is,\u201d Lewis said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly visit North Korea later this month, and you can bet collaboration on missiles and space programs will be on the agenda. The bilateral summit in Pyongyang will follow a mysterious North Korean rocket launch on May 27, which ended in a fireball over the Yellow Sea. The fact that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45116,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[9683,25,1570,352,3924],"class_list":["post-45114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-kim-jong-un","tag-launch","tag-north-korea","tag-russia","tag-vladimir-putin"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45114"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45114"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45114\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45114"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45114"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45114"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}