The majority of SATShow attendees polled at the start of Wednesday\u2019s General Session indicated that the space industry\u2019s outlook was too uncertain to assess, while others considered the current climate \u201cgreat.\u201d<\/p>\n
A panel of experts across different segments of the space industry assessed the biggest forces shaping the space market right now, led by Karen Jones and Brian Weeden, policy gurus from The Aerospace Corporation.<\/p>\n
Asked how disruptive direct-to-device (D2D) will be on the space industry, Matt Desch, CEO of Iridium, was bullish, observing, \u201cIt\u2019s the talk of the show.\u201d<\/p>\n
Desch pointed to uncertainty around the potential size of the D2D market. He recalled that in the early days of the mobile satellite services (MSS) market, predictions were that market could reach $3 billion to $4 billion. The spread on D2D\u2019s market potential is much wider \u2014 estimates have ranged from $10 billion to as high as $1 trillion, he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat\u2019s different this time around is patience,\u201d he added, explaining that having a vertically integrated market has given the industry the deep pockets to allow the market to mature.<\/p>\n
\u201cPatience is going to be required \u2026 especially as we move into 5G radio systems. We\u2019re going to need new devices, and the customer is going to bring their own device, which will make it a much larger market.\u201d<\/p>\n
Desch anticipates that it won\u2019t be until 2029 to 2035 \u201cbefore we really move the needle.\u201d He also predicts that D2D won\u2019t disrupt the terrestrial wireless market despite ongoing though he wondered if it might disrupt the broadband VSAT market.<\/p>\n
Former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, now managing partner of The Artemis Group, sees an even bigger market for D2D by \u201cdemocratizing IoT (Internet of Things), where IoT devices will be distributed more widely.<\/p>\n
\u201cEverything will be connected in a much more affordable way,\u201d he predicted.<\/p>\n
Bridenstine also addressed the focus on public-private partnerships, embodied by NASA\u2019s approach to the Artemis Program, where the agency leans more on commercial providers.<\/p>\n
\u201cI said frequently at NASA that we need to be one customer of many in a robust commercial (space) marketplace,\u201d he said. \u201cI also said that the only thing worse than a government monopoly is a private monopoly the government is dependent upon,\u201d Bridenstine added, clearly referring to SpaceX\u2019s dominant position in the U.S. launch market.<\/p>\n
The former NASA leader explained that the space sector should look to the operating model of the airline industry, competing on cost, innovation, and safety.<\/p>\n
On the issue of competition, Bridenstine urged the industry to embrace more competition \u201cbecause that\u2019s what creates the innovation metabolism that makes the United States preeminent around the world in so many areas.\u201d<\/p>\n
Steve Collar, board chairman of Swissto12 and former CEO of SES, addressed the growing push for space sovereignty and increased government spending on space. He shared the good news \u2013 that governments recognize how important space is to people\u2019s daily lives.<\/p>\n
More concerning is the danger of large companies \u201cbecoming semi-sovereign themselves\u2026.[and] able to make decisions about how a constellation or system is used.\u201d<\/p>\n
For this reason, Collar said governments need to ensure they can influence how those assets are used.<\/p>\n
National security is one area of growth in sovereign space, with the U.S. increasing its national space spending by 10% and Germany indicating it will spend $50 billion in the next few years, noted Weeden.<\/p>\n
\u201cMoney is starting to flow,\u201d agreed Joseph Rickers, vice president of Transport, Tracking and Warning at Lockheed Martin. He emphasized the need to get past obstacles and bureaucracy to build not only a U.S. defense capability but also an international one with allies.<\/p>\n
The threats of contested space \u201care now coming at you from a lot of different ways,\u201d he added. \u201cPurpose-driven systems are no longer sufficient anymore. Layered defense is needed now, which means people, factories, and AI,\u201d the defense executive said.<\/p>\n
Rickers reiterated the need for systems to be resilient. \u201cWe have to shift; we have to go faster; we have to get there sooner.\u201d<\/p>\n
Representing the investment outlook on the space sector, Tess Hatch, managing director of Stifel Venture Banking, named the upcoming SpaceX IPO with a potential valuation of up to $1.75 trillion (which translates to about 1.75% of the overall global economy), as one of three critical liquidity events she considers critical to opening venture investment in the space sector. As a point of comparison: $15.8 billion has gone into the space economy this year.<\/p>\n
Hatch considers Google\u2019s $500 million acquisition of Skybox, a satellite imagery startup, in 2014, four years after its incorporation, as the second liquidity event.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat really catalyzed venture capitalists to write a check into space in the first place, discovering and learning about this space thing,\u201d Hatch said.<\/p>\n
It marked the beginning of venture-backed startups in the commercial space sector. The third liquidity event was the year of space SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies). These so-called backdoor IPOs took off in 2021, building on momentum from 2020.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can\u2019t spell space without SPAC,\u201d said the investment executive, citing her firm\u2019s work helping Rocket Lab go public.<\/p>\n
Addressing the outlook for the remote sensing market, Lisa Rich, founder COO of Xplore, a space-as-a-service provider, pointed out that over the last 15 years, \u201cwhat we\u2019ve seen mostly is that the demand is there, [but] the profits remain somewhat elusive for companies that were first movers in the space.\u201d<\/p>\n
She explained a key challenge is that remote sensing applications are ubiquitous \u2013wildfires, climate management, maritime monitoring and chain of custody, yet struggle to command commercial value.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll those things have value, but how do you derive the value and have cost-effective data acquisition for the commercial marketplace? That\u2019s a challenge that hasn\u2019t been cracked. We haven\u2019t had that internet moment you expect to see [with data deemed as a goldmine].\u201d<\/p>\n
But applications with AI may help the industry develop delivery systems for the data that are more efficient, Rich said.<\/p>\n
Turning to a recent economic change that has implications well beyond the space industry, Akhil Rao, chief economist with economic analysis and strategic advisory firm, Rational Futures, decried the loss of governmental big-picture data that industries rely on to make production decisions. As the former acting chief economist for NASA, Rao helped create some of this data.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou need to understand the market and market requirements,\u201d he said, sharing that the U.S. during WWII used data to build a production system and economy that was the envy of the world.<\/p>\n
\u201cAmerica has had statistical supremacy. As a nation, we\u2019re losing some of that insight,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n
Asked during the Q&A what would be the tipping point for space to take off, Bridenstine said, \u201cRight now, we go to space and we\u2019re entirely dependent on Earth. That\u2019s why there\u2019s been a lot of talk about in-situ utilization both on the moon and eventually on Mars. I think once you\u2019re no longer dependent on Earth, in space and you can get resources where you are to sustain, I think that\u2019s probably the tipping point.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s the most exciting time to be in the space industry in the 45 to 50 years I\u2019ve been in the industry,\u201d said audience member Tim Logue, a policy and business development space veteran who serves on the board of the Pacific Telecom Council. \u201cI agree with the panel that there\u2019s a lot of uncertainty but also a lot of opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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