Emerging technologies like quantum computing and artificial intelligence create new threats to defend against, as well as new defensive capabilities for the commercial space sector, U.S. defense officials said at the recent CyberSat event in November.<\/p>\n
Officials from the Space Force, the Air Force, the Marine Corps and the Pentagon highlighted their concerns about the runaway consequences of using cutting edge new technologies for the untrammeled development of offensive cyber tools.<\/p>\n
[This article was published exclusively for Space Security Sentinel, a new monthly newsletter at the intersection of cybersecurity and space. Subscribe to the newsletter here.]<\/em><\/p>\n James \u201cAaron\u201d Bishop, the chief information security officer (CISO) for the Department of the Air Force, compared these technologies to the first Jurassic Park movie, in which Jeff Goldblum\u2019s character observed that scientists were so busy trying to do something, that they never asked whether they should<\/em> do it.<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s where we are,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re busy researching how to do it,\u201d he said, referring to quantum-enabled cyberattacks. \u201cWhat I\u2019m worried about is, once they achieve it, it\u2019s going to be unleashed on the world. And we don\u2019t know what we just did. To me, that\u2019s the real issue.\u201d<\/p>\n Quantum computing would enable attackers to visualize and understand the vulnerabilities in an IT network much faster than they currently can, reducing the time the attacker has to spend in the network, moving around and mapping it, which today often offers the best opportunity to detect and expel them.<\/p>\n \u201cIf I can just [snaps fingers] and know all your vulnerabilities, I can come back another day and take you out. You will not have had any time to monitor me poking around your system, which is the way we catch you today,\u201d Bishop said.<\/p>\n Precisely because of the risks inherent in such technologies, the Department of Defense is very focused on the issues of trust and trustworthiness when it comes to AI.<\/p>\n \u201cTrust is a very dynamic entity,\u201d said Kimberly Sablon, from the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Critical Technologies.<\/p>\n Trust of a weapon or any other system incorporating AI means \u201cjustified confidence in the performance of that system,\u201d Sablon said.<\/p>\n \u201cBased on observable evidence, I know that this system is going to operate in a very reliable way, and, more importantly, consistent in how it\u2019s executing the objectives that it was designed to \u2014 doing so in accordance with user defined goals and expectations,\u201d she explained.<\/p>\n Earlier this year, Sablon noted, the DoD set up a special hub at Carnegie Mellon University\u2019s famed Software Engineering Institute, bringing together AI researchers, DoD weapons testers and early technology adopters in the military.<\/p>\n The Center for Calibrated Trust Measurement and Evaluation, or CaTE, Sablon said, is figuring out metrics that can be used, in any given environment, to measure trustworthiness, risk and \u201call of the required metrics and even methods for observing those metrics, methods for correcting the system, should it start to deviate beyond its performance bounds.\u201d<\/p>\n It was important to recognize the limitations of AI, Sablon said, especially in regard to autonomy. \u201cThe silver bullet is not always full autonomy. The silver bullet might be a lower tech or no solution at all, especially when we\u2019re talking about the space domain.\u201d<\/p>\n Complicating the equation is the U.S. competition with China and other adversary nations \u2014 creating concern that guardrails or regulation on U.S. research might hamstring its progress against adversaries who are less risk averse.<\/p>\n Bishop pushed back hard at the idea that the U.S. should refrain from research into potentially risky quantum applications, but argued more thought needs to go into the potential impact.<\/p>\n \u201cI didn\u2019t say we shouldn\u2019t do so. We need to worry about when we release it, what are we releasing? We\u2019re not spending any energy on that side of the equation. We\u2019re only busy trying to \u2026 build this [quantum] computer. Once we\u2019ve done that, we\u2019re not really in control. That\u2019s the situation we\u2019re going to find ourselves in,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n As with AI and other emerging tech, quantum is not one singular thing, Bishop stressed. People always think about cryptography when they hear the word quantum, and that threat is real. He said that \u201charvest now, decrypt later,\u201d the concept in which an adversary captures encrypted communications flowing over the open internet in the expectation of being able to decrypt them with a working quantum computer, is already going on, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cAlgorithm agility is where we need to go,\u201d he said, arguing that the advent of the quantum age means always being ready to reinforce encryption. The days of hard coding an algorithm into a piece of hardware and not worrying about it until the hardware is replaced are over. \u201cWe have to be able to change the algorithms on demand and be able to understand why we changed them,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n But the ability of quantum computers to crack previously secure encryption algorithms is only one of many disruptive effects the development of the technology would have.<\/p>\n Quantum computing uses the weird physical properties of subatomic particles to power ultra-fast computation. Quantum sensing uses those same properties to measure, with extraordinary accuracy, phenomena like the Earth\u2019s gravitational or magnetic field, or to track inertial movement.<\/p>\n Quantum sensing, several experts noted, will soon provide capabilities that replace or back-up GPS and other satellite-based position, navigation and timing, or PNT, services.<\/p>\n PNT has become essential to modern warfare because the guidance systems of unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs, smart bombs, cruise missiles and other precision-guided munitions rely on it. But in a shooting war with a peer adversary, GPS is likely to be jammed or spoofed, making the development of back-up PNT technologies, including those based on quantum sensing a strategic priority for the U.S. military.<\/p>\n But quantum sensing technologies could also be used on satellite platforms, noted David DiEugenio, CIO for the U.S. Marine Corps recruiting enterprise, where their extraordinary precision and sensitivity could provide new use-cases for the warfighter, like distinguishing between friendly and enemy forces.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s a great opportunity to be able to take advantage of satellite platforms to help support those efforts,\u201d he said. \u201cI know where I am. I don\u2019t know where the bad guys are. Quantum sensors that are based on satellite platforms offer the opportunity to better do that positive identification with precision,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n Satellites could also employ the third type of quantum technology, in addition to computing and sensing \u2014 communications, said DiEugenio.<\/p>\n Quantum holds the promise of secure communication by exploiting a phenomenon known as superpositioning, where a quantum particle called a qubit can be both a 1 and a 0. But observation, such as eavesdropping by hackers or online spies, collapses the quantum state. The qubit becomes either a 1 or a 0. The collapse reveals the compromise of the communication.<\/p>\n By employing quantum communications, DiEugenio said, satellites \u201ccould help to safeguard the delivering of that [PNT] information and sharing that situational awareness.\u201d<\/p>\n But quantum communications also have an offensive side, highlighted earlier this year by Chief Master Sgt. Ronald Lerch, the senior enlisted leader for the Intelligence Directorate of U.S. Space Systems Command.<\/p>\n Earlier this year, Lerch outlined what he called \u201cour nightmare scenario.\u201d<\/p>\n He said at an industry event it was the prospect that the Chinese People\u2019s Liberation Army, or PLA, could use secure quantum communications to provide command, control and communications, or C3, to its forces anywhere on the globe from an inaccessible location in the vast blackness between the Earth and the Moon, known as cislunar space.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Terminator that stalks us in our dreams\u2026 is this idea that the PLA will have a quantum capability that\u2019s parked out there in cislunar space doing C3, and we can\u2019t see it, we can\u2019t reach it, we can\u2019t get access to it. And that\u2019s terrifying,\u201d Lerch said.<\/p>\n In AI, the nightmare scenario is an adversary unconstrained by the moral and legal guardrails that limit U.S. use of the technology.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Chinese look at space as a very complex and very dangerous environment,\u201d said Rudolph \u201cReb\u201d Butler, the senior chief advisor to the Chief Technology and Innovation Officer of the U.S. Space Force, \u201cThey\u2019re very comfortable using AI and taking the human out of the loop and putting the robot into the loop on orbit.\u201d<\/p>\n By contrast, the Space Force, which is already employing AI for a lot of small automation tools takes the position that \u201cthe human is still accountable for how the tool is employed,\u201d Butler said.<\/p>\n Space situational awareness, or SSA, which is one of the U.S. Space Force\u2019s critical missions needs AI to help human analysts sift through the huge amount of data required, he said. This is a critical issue because figuring out quickly what happened to an asset on orbit is both extremely difficult and vitally important.<\/p>\n \u201cWill we be able to handle the complexity of recognizing a hazard, a natural environment problem, versus an attack versus a feint versus a spoof?\u201d he asked.<\/p>\n The Space Force is working with its partners to alleviate the cognitive burden on humans of dealing with SSA data through automation.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s a lot of work to be done,\u201d Butler said. \u201cA lot of people see AI as the easy button. It\u2019s not an easy button. When we talk about autonomy, it makes it even more and more complex.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Emerging technologies like quantum computing and artificial intelligence create new threats to defend against, as well as new defensive capabilities for the commercial space sector, U.S. defense officials said at the recent CyberSat event in November. 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