{"id":62058,"date":"2019-07-15T19:13:15","date_gmt":"2019-07-15T11:13:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp-productionenv-bjg9h2g2bgg5b8aa.southeastasia-01.azurewebsites.net\/news\/analyst-smallsats-are-the-wild-card-in-250-billion-launch-market\/"},"modified":"2019-07-15T19:13:15","modified_gmt":"2019-07-15T11:13:15","slug":"analyst-smallsats-are-the-wild-card-in-250-billion-launch-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/news\/analyst-smallsats-are-the-wild-card-in-250-billion-launch-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst: Smallsats are the Wild Card in $250 Billion Launch Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

An increase in U.S. government and military spending on launch services, combined with a sharp spike in small satellite activity and the emergence of commercial space travel and tourism will create a total space economy worth approximately $350 billion, according to Sheila Kahyaoglu, satellite equity analyst at Jefferies<\/strong>, and author of a recent report, \u201cThe Evolving Space Launch Market: Ready for Take-Off.<\/em>\u201d The commercial market accounts for about 75 percent of that total market value ($258.7 billion).<\/p>\n

In the report, Kahyaoglu wrote that demand for launch vehicles are being driven by a number of sources, including commercial launch customers and domestic and international governments. \u201cIn total, the space economy is estimated to be roughly $345 billion. Within the broader space economy, launch vehicles help deliver satellites that support services such as television, satellite radio, and broadband services,\u201d she said. \u201cApproximately 75 percent of the space economy is commercial, with the remainder from government budgets. Within the sub-segment of the economy an estimated $12 billion of revenue is from launch services, including government.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kahyaoglu added that secondary growth will driven by a broader shift to utilizing smaller satellites for lower orbits and the allure of space travel, which has some crossover with the launch market. \u201cWe see the most opportunity for Northrop Grumman<\/strong> (LV content 3 percent of sales, 20 percent space), both as a merchant supplier and fully integrated manufacturer of launch vehicle solutions,\u201d she wrote.<\/p>\n

Northrop Grumman (NGC) faces an uphill battle given incumbency, but has a long history and track record of success for its rockets. \u201cThe company also has a solid pitch as a vertically integrated company, being a supplier of avionics, solid rocket motors and composites,\u201d Kahyaoglu added. \u201cIn our view Antares has been somewhat of a disappointment. There were expectations to get launches outside of NASA<\/strong>, which has not materialized. The natural extension is OmegA, with initial funding from the Air Force. NGC\u2019s Omega rocket is expected to deliver 5,250 to 7,800 kgs to Geostationary Equatorial Orbit (GEO). The program also uses current proven technology and draws upon NGC\u2019s prior launches. First flight is expected in 2021 with operational flights beginning in 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n

Launch costs can be broad, from several hundreds of thousands of dollars to lift a small satellite into space to the most exquisite satellites that could be launched only on a Delta IV. \u201cThis is mostly a government market, where launch costs could reach $200-400 million per launch when accounting for add ons and overhead,\u201d said Kahyaoglu. \u201cIn comparison, the cost for the largest human space launchers can be well in excess of $1 billion per flight.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kahyaoglu hails SpaceX <\/strong>as the \u201cbiggest disruptor\u201d in the industry, and says the company now has a solid foundation, with flagship programs from NASA<\/strong> (CRS and Commercial Crew) coupled with Air Force launches which have provided the benefit of scale. She believes the Falcon 9 has laid a solid foundation with the Falcon Heavy the next big step. She says the company\u2019s aspirations seem to be evolving. \u201cThe company is working on Starship and Super Heavy (previously BFR) with aspirations for the Moon. The rocket is planned to take a private passenger for a flight around the moon in 2023,\u201d she said. \u201cThe new rocket is expected to be a fully reusable transportation system for all orbits, the Moon and Mars and replace all of the company\u2019s current launch vehicles. Missions could include satellite delivery, space station missions and interplanetary transport.\u201d<\/p>\n

When it comes to Arianespace<\/strong>, Kahyaoglu spoke of the prospects for Ariane 6, which is expected to come in two variants, the A62 and heavier variant, the A64. \u201cAriane 6 is expected to have a base price of $85 million, with the heavier variant (11,500 to GTO) expected to cost about $102 million,\u201d she says. \u201cThe program is supported by the government. European public entities have purchased several missions including two to launch Galileo navigation satellites and one for a French CSO-3 military imaging satellites. In September 2018, Eutelsat <\/strong>signed a contract for five satellite launches on Ariane 6 through 2027. The award was the first commercial contract. More recently France\u2019s independent state auditor raised concerns about the viability of the Ariane 6 launchers, believing it was too cautious to compete with growing competition between the likes of SpaceX.\u201d<\/p>\n

There are clearly a number of new players in the market, and competition between them all is likely to be intense. Kahyaoglu described the commercial market as \u201cchoppy\u201d for all of the players. \u201cThe commercial launch market tends to be more competitive and uneven. The purpose is to monitor earth\u2019s service and provide connectivity,\u201d she said. \u201cOrders for GEO satellites peaked at 26 units in 2014 with five orders in 2018. The market could return to the normalized mid-teens order rate ($125 million a unit equates to an annual market size of about $2 billion), but uncertainty from small satellite constellations and capacity from high-throughput satellites has put a pause on the market. Order to launch is typically 18 to 24 months.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An increase in U.S. government and military spending on launch services, combined with a sharp spike in small satellite activity and the emergence of commercial space travel and tourism will create a total space economy worth approximately $350 billion, according to Sheila Kahyaoglu, satellite equity analyst at Jefferies, and author of a recent report, \u201cThe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":60916,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62058"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62058"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62058\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62058"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62058"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/starpath.global\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62058"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}