Last week, SpaceX launched its seventh Starship rocket on a test flight that didn’t go nearly as far as many had hoped. So what’s the progress on Starship Flight 8, and how will 7’s shortcomings affect its timeline?
Read more: Starship Flight 8: Booster 15 completes static fire
Ship and Booster statuses
Starship Flight 8 will see the use of Booster 15 and Ship 34, the second Block 2 ship readied for launch. The two have had their main structures already assembled and have both undergone cryogenic proof tests on their tanks. They are now back at the assembly site getting Raptor engines installed, flaps, and other final components added on.
These proof tests are done to ensure the tanks have the ability to hold the pressure needed for flight. The addition of using cryogenic nitrogen means it will also test the stress of the super-low temperatures experienced when fueled with liquid oxygen and methane. On top of all this, Ship 34 was equipped with thrust simulators to add to the structural testing.
For now, since the Ship and Boosters are inside their respective high and mega bays, we won’t see them again until they head for their respective static firings.
SpaceX has increased its cadence in building new Starship boosters and ships as they have both gained more experience with them and improved their processes with new facilities like the Starfactory.
Potential launch date
While SpaceX is hoping to get to the soon-to-be-approved by the FAA, 25 launches this year. They will likely not meet that, given that it will require launches every other week.
Based on Ship 34 and Booster 15’s assembly timelines, they are still a few weeks away from launch, and that’s before we get into Flight 7’s issues.
A February launch is still possible, even if SpaceX has to complete a mishap investigation with the FAA. A kicker will be the added debris investigation being led by the FAA. If the FAA requires that investigation to be completed before a flight, government timelines usually don’t align with SpaceX’s timelines.
It seems like there isn’t too much concern over a long delay, as Elon Musk shared early reasons for the failed flight and migration plans already. Stating that early data supports a fire forming in the vehicle that eventually grew and caused the rapid unscheduled disassembly. Musk states they will add more fire suppression systems to help mitigate future fires in that area and that a push beyond next month is unlikely.
SpaceX will first have to submit its mishap investigation results to the FAA before it can gain approval for another flight.
Flight profile
There were four main objectives to Flight 7’s mission, and only one and maybe a half were met. First was another good catch of the booster. This was a success that makes future catches even more likely. Second was the validation of the Block 2 ship design; while Ship 34 made most of the way through its burn, the RUD negates most of the validation of the new design – calling for a redo there. Third was the deployment of its first satellites in space. Finally, SpaceX had several heat shield tests, including new tile designs and missing tiles, to stress test it during reentry. The mission concluded before the final two objectives could be tested.
It is very likely that Flight 8 will be a redo of Flight 7, including the heat shield tests and dummy Starlink satellites. This would also mean the flight is once again suborbital, with a ship splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
There were rumors that Flight 8 could see the first orbital flight and ship catch attempts, but that is unlikely given Starship Block 2’s first launch failure.
SpaceX hopes to bring ship recovery, reusability, and satellite deployment online this year for Starship, moving it from development to a pseudo-operational stage.
