As we wind down launches for 2024, we’re looking at what is to come in 2025. January looks to be a rather exciting time if you’re a Moon fan, as three companies will be starting their journey for their shot to land on the Moon, hopefully softly.
NASA gets two more chances for first soft CLPS landing
Each year we seem to have new contenders for launching commercial landers to the Moon. NASA is dead set on returning to the Moon using commercial partners, a change overall welcomed by the industry. There has been some success, with each attempt by commercial landers getting closer and closer to a clean mission.
While there haven’t been any soft landings yet, Intuitive Machines’ first mission last February survived its landing sideways and was able to complete some of its scientific objectives.
Intuitive Machines is expected to make its next lunar landing attempt sometime in January; however, it has yet to share any mission updates for quite some time. Shipment of the lander is expected a few weeks from launch, and from what we can tell publicly, it has not yet shipped.
The mission for IM-2 will be to stumble into finding some ice on the lunar South Pole. It will carry two payloads that will help attempt this challenge. First is PRIME-1, a subsurface drill and mass spectrometer. As the drill kicks up material from beneath the surface, there’s hope that some water ice survived from being ejected from the nearby crater. The second payload is a Micro-Rover, sadly with no name, that hops instead of rolls. NASA hopes this little rover could make it into a permanently dark region of the crater and discover water ice there.
While the drill has high hopes for success, the rover will likely have a higher chance of discovering ice. This is due to IM-2’s landing site being too warm to retain surface ice. However, that extra sunlight will mean IM-2 can operate for up to 10 days before lunar night takes away its power source and heat.
IM-2 will launch on a Falcon 9 rocket, the go-to commercial rocket currently, alongside NASA’s Lunar Trailblazer orbiter. This low-budget and secondary payload will also search for ice on the lunar surface, but from above.
Firefly to attempt first landing with Blue Ghost
Also launching in January on a Falcon 9 rocket is Firefly‘s Blue Ghost lander. This will be the company’s first mission for its lander. Both Firefly and Intuitive Machines are launching these missions under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services contract. This is NASA’s way to incentivize companies to build out lunar capabilities.
On board Firefly’s “Ghost Riders in the Sky” mission will be a frenzy of NASA scientific payloads. Unlike IM-2, Firefly’s mission won’t have a single goal. The payloads will study everything from the lunar surface, solar science, and even Earth. With many CLPS missions, the risk factor is quite high given the vast majority of these missions won’t succeed on their first try.
Japan tagging alone for follow up landing attempt
Rounding out the trio of landing launches in January is i-space‘s second Hakuto-R lunar lander. It will rideshare with Firefly with the goal of reattempting a successful landing on the lunar surface. i-space’s first mission failed after communications were lost before landing, leading to the lander impacting the surface.
Not much is publicly shared about any scientific goals of Mission 2 other than it will feature a lunar rover, this time with actual wheels. i-space has laid out its objectives for how it will determine the level of success. There are 10 in total, and according to the first one, Mission 2 is already a success.
| ✅ Success 1 | Design, develop, and assemble the lander |
| Success 2 | Launch and separate lander from vehicle |
| Success 3 | Establish communication link |
| Success 4 | Set lander on a course for the Moon |
| Success 5 | Complete first lunar flyby |
| Success 6 | Reaffirm deep-space survivability, target first lunar orbit insertion maneuverer |
| Success 7 | Insert stable lunar orbit |
| Success 8 | Get lander ready to land |
| Success 9 | Successfully land on the Moon |
| Success 10 | Establish communication and power supply on the lunar surface |
There is also a list of “Ventures” that i-space has set up for objectives post-landing. This includes deploying the rover and being able to collect a sample of lunar regolith for NASA. While the sample will be collected, it won’t be making a return trip. NASA has signed contracts with several companies to do this. It is sort of a challenge to see if commercial companies could, in the future, gather lunar regolith if needed.
Firefly’s and i-space’s launch is set for “mid-January,” and both are in Florida, ready for SpaceX integration. While asked several times in a press conference last week, neither Firefly nor NASA would share a no-earlier-than date for the launch.
Will any of these landers make it?
Landing on the Moon for commercial companies, and even some countries, has proven to be quite difficult. Out of the three landers currently making the trek in early 2025, Intuitive Machines has the best chance of being successful, given it has technically already landed on the Moon in the past. Given this is i-space’s second mission, it too has a good chance of landing.
While Firefly seems confident they will achieve a soft landing on its first mission, and I personally do hope they do, the odds are against them. However, the company has probably spent more time compared to the other CLPS contract winners on landing something on the Moon. So they may just be able to do it.
All three of these landers will take months to raise their orbits enough to reach the Moon. So, while they are launching next month, don’t expect any news from them for a while.
