With the construction of China’s two major satellite Internet constellations, the commercial aerospace field has spawned many industries that will explode in the future. Nihao Space has launched the “Special Topic on China’s Top 10 New Commercial Aerospace Tracks” to provide you with a detailed explanation of the 10 hottest tracks in the commercial aerospace field in the future.
Today we will learn about: 10 new tracks for commercial aerospace in 2025 – satellite in-orbit services.
01
Why is it so popular?
As of October 2025, the total number of satellites in orbit around the world has exceeded 15,000, including about 13,000 in low-Earth orbit, and SpaceX Starlink alone accounts for more than 8,800. Research shows that the theoretical upper limit of low-Earth orbit can accommodate approximately 100,000 satellites, and the total number of constellation plans announced by various countries has exceeded this limit. In other words, the number of satellites that can be “queued up” in the next few years will conflict directly with the orbit’s carrying capacity. Orbital congestion, spectrum interference and collision risks are all accelerating towards critical points. Against this background, the past one-time model of “throw away” satellites is no longer sustainable. Satellites can only be scrapped at the end of their lifespan, which not only causes a waste of assets, but also further increases the amount of orbital debris, exacerbating the risk of out-of-control space environments. With the explosive growth in the number of satellites, the traditional model can no longer support the large-scale operation of constellations in the next decade. Satellite in-orbit services have therefore become a key path to resolve conflicts. Satellite on-orbit service is to use service satellites with operation, docking or propulsion capabilities to perform tasks such as on-orbit life extension, on-orbit maintenance, and debris cleanup on target satellites, transforming satellites from a “throwaway” state into a “maintainable, reusable, and recyclable” sustainable resource. This can not only extend the life of satellites and reduce launch costs, but is also a key means to alleviate orbit congestion, reduce space debris, and ensure the sustainable use of space. From an economic perspective, the potential for satellite in-orbit services is considerable. For example, the life of a low-orbit communication satellite is about 5 years, the cost plus launch cost is about 50 million, and the annual use cost is about 10 million. However, if the life of the satellite can be extended to 10 years through in-orbit fueling, the annual cost of using a single satellite can be reduced by at least about 30%, including the cost of fueling. For those constellation systems that plan to deploy tens of thousands of satellites, there is a huge market with a potential scale of hundreds of billions. According to Fortune Business Insights data, the global on-orbit services market size will reach US$2.3326 billion in 2023. Among them, on-orbit life extension has become the fastest growing and largest segment due to the continuous increase in satellite fueling demand, with a market size of US$1.1711 billion, accounting for about 50%; the debris cleanup market size is approximately US$101.2 million; while on-orbit maintenance is still mainly in the technical verification stage, and has not yet formed a truly mature market.
02
Global Industry Progress
As an emerging aerospace technology field, satellite in-orbit services have broad prospects, but they are still in the early stages of technical verification and commercial exploration. As early as 1962, Qian Xuesen proposed the idea of a “satellite-based interstellar navigation station”, which included the prototype of on-orbit service technologies such as on-orbit assembly. In 1973, American astronauts used spacewalk technology on the “Skylab” to perform maintenance operations such as releasing solar panels and deploying temporary sun shields. It was also the first on-orbit verification of on-orbit servicing technology. In the following decades, countries continued to conduct ground and on-orbit experiments around key technologies such as autonomous rendezvous and docking, robotic arm operation, fueling, and on-orbit capture. China: In April 2017, Tianzhou-1 and Tiangong-2 successfully docked and refueled, marking that my country has independent rendezvous, docking and refueling capabilities. In January 2022, Shijian 21 towed a failed Beidou-2 satellite to the “cemetery orbit” for the first time, demonstrating my country’s ability to capture non-cooperative targets and laying the foundation for debris cleanup and on-orbit maintenance. In July 2025, the Shijian-25 robotic arm successfully penetrated the fuel port with a diameter of only 3.8 mm on the Beidou-3 G7 satellite and completed 142 kilograms of fuel refueling, extending the satellite’s life by 8 years. A Beidou-3 satellite has a service life of more than 10 years and costs about 1 billion yuan. This refueling will extend the life of the satellite by 8 years. Without considering the cost of the service itself, this refueling will reduce the annual cost of Beidou-3 by 45%. What’s more significant is that Shijian 25 adopts a modular design and can refuel up to 20 satellites of different types. It is called a “super space gas station” and its technical value and potential economic benefits are constantly emerging. United States: In October 2019, Northrop Grumman successfully launched the world’s first commercial satellite in-orbit life extension spacecraft MEV-1. On February 25, 2020, MEV-1 successfully docked with Intelsat-901 and implemented propulsion capability takeover, successfully extending its life by 5 years, marking the official launch of a new business model for satellite in-orbit services. Subsequently, MEV-2 was also put into operation and is currently providing life extension support for the Intelsat 10-02 satellite. Europe: The European Space Agency is advancing the ClearSpace-1 mission, which plans to capture and remove a decommissioned target of about 100 kilograms in 2026 and re-enter the atmosphere to burn it. Japan: Japan conducted the ETS-VIII mission in 1996, which successfully demonstrated autonomous rendezvous technology and on-orbit capture technology. India: India will complete the autonomous docking of two satellites in low-Earth orbit through the SpaDeX mission in 2025, mastering key in-orbit rendezvous and docking technologies. Judging from industry trends, commercial aerospace is moving from “entering space” (rocket launches) and “utilizing space” (satellite applications) to the third stage of “managing space” (on-orbit services). According to statistics from Future Market Insights (FMI), a global market research and consulting company, from January to October 2025, the global satellite in-orbit service market size was approximately US$3.1 billion, and is expected to reach US$9.5 billion in 2035, with a compound growth rate of 11.7%. The market growth potential is huge.
03
Major players in the industry
Satellite in-orbit services are an emerging field. A number of leading companies and scientific research institutions have emerged around the world. They have their own strengths in different subdivisions and promote technological breakthroughs and commercialization in the industry. Major foreign players: Space Logistics: MEV-1 and MEV-2 achieved the on-orbit life extension of the first batch of commercial satellites, successfully provided propulsion capability takeover and life extension for Intelsat satellites, and started the commercialization of on-orbit services. Astroscale: Dedicated to space debris cleanup and on-orbit satellite servicing, it has completed two demonstration missions, testing the ability to operate at close range and capture free-floating objects. ClearSpace: focuses on satellite debris cleaning and on-orbit maintenance, and plans to actively capture and remove decommissioned satellites through ClearSpace-1 and subsequent missions. Main players in China: Sanyuan Aerospace: Committed to providing global users with services such as space debris cleanup, spacecraft in-orbit life extension, and spacecraft in-orbit maintenance and manufacturing. The first test satellite Xiyuan 0 satellite has completed satellite quality confirmation and docking interface confirmation, and is in factory condition. Guoyu Star: The core business revolves around the full life cycle of satellites, covering the three core sectors of on-orbit verification, on-orbit life extension, and on-orbit cleanup. On May 21, 2025, the first on-orbit service and new technology verification satellite for space and earth sensing, “Xingjiyuan No. 1”, was successfully launched.
04
core technology
Satellite on-orbit services rely on a set of extremely high threshold engineering capabilities. According to industry consensus, current on-orbit services mainly rely on three core technologies: 1. Capture and docking: The service satellite first approaches the target satellite through orbital maneuvering, and uses optical sensors, radar ranging and autonomous navigation algorithms to achieve relative positioning. When the relative speed between the two drops to a very low level, the mechanical arm or magnetic docking mechanism completes the locking and achieves physical connection. 2. Operation and service: After docking, the service satellite can perform a variety of operations: refueling, replacing modules, deploying solar wings, adjusting attitude, and even replacing propulsion units. This stage requires extremely high precision and autonomous control algorithms for the space manipulator, which is currently the part with the highest technical threshold. 3. Separation and deorbiting: After the mission is completed, the service satellite is separated from the target satellite. If it is a life extension or maintenance mission, the target satellite will continue to perform its mission in orbit; if it is a cleanup mission, the service satellite will drag the abandoned satellite into a cemetery orbit or guide it into the atmosphere and burn it.
05
Where will the main breakthrough points be in the future?
Although satellite on-orbit services have become the core growth point of the aerospace industry in the next decade, to truly push the industry from “demonstration and verification” to “scale commercialization”, breakthroughs still need to be achieved in three key directions: 1. Engineering leaps between on-orbit refueling and non-cooperative capture. In order for future on-orbit services to truly enter large-scale applications, we first need to overcome the engineering bottleneck of core operational capabilities. Although Shijian 25 has successfully completed Beidou-3 refueling in high orbit and achieved breakthroughs in millimeter-level interface docking, the industry as a whole still faces a number of technical difficulties: non-cooperative target acquisition places extremely high requirements on attitude perception, rendezvous guidance and robotic arm control; fuel interface standards have not yet been unified, and compatibility between different platforms is insufficient; in environments such as complex lighting, unstable attitude, strong reflections, the intelligent control algorithm to achieve long-term autonomous operations still needs a lot of verification. Whoever can transform refueling, maintenance, and capture from “experimental breakthroughs” to “volume capabilities” will be the first to take control of the next generation of space infrastructure. 2. Systematic construction of international rules and operational standards Compared with traditional aerospace activities, on-orbit services involve the entire process of “approach-grab-dismantle” operations, which naturally have potential safety and confrontation attributes. In the current absence of international rules, all countries face the same problem: Does the capture of non-cooperative targets require international declaration? Does cross-border replenishment involve technology export? Who owns the orbital disposal rights for decommissioned satellites? If these problems are not resolved, it will be difficult to form a unified global commercial market for on-orbit services. In the future, countries that take the lead in promoting rule formulation, establishing risk assessment mechanisms, and building transparent operating standards will have the right to speak in shaping the industry order, and will also open up a broader space for the commercialization of domestic enterprises. 3. The “demand explosion point” jointly created by large-scale constellations and reusable rockets. Whether on-orbit services can grow into a 100-billion-level industry depends not on technology, but on demand. Where does the demand come from? Tens of thousands of satellites have truly entered a large-scale deployment and update cycle. The current domestic launch pace is still weaker than SpaceX, but reusable rockets such as Suzaku-3 and Tianlong-3 are about to have their first flights at the end of the year. Once successful, they will significantly reduce unit launch costs and support high-density, batch networking. According to the plan, my country will deploy more than 20,000 satellites by 2030, and the average lifespan of low-orbit communication satellites is about five years. As the first batch of satellites enter the renewal period, the scale of decommissioning will increase rapidly in a short period of time, forcing services such as life extension, repair, replacement and cleaning to become rigid requirements for constellation operations. By then, on-orbit services will no longer be “optional” but a necessary infrastructure for the constellation system to maintain healthy operation. It will also usher in real large-scale growth at this stage.
