1. Engine maturity. First, check whether the engine technology is mature. It is best if the engine has passed flight assessment, which means that the engine has proven its reliability in a real flight environment (vibration, overload, weight loss, etc.). It also shows that the company has crossed the most difficult threshold from “drawings” to “products”. If you have not passed the flight assessment, you must go through the ground test test. A large number of, long-term, and multi-working conditions ground tests are essential before flying. If it has not even done ground thermal testing, it means that the company may still be in a very early stage of research and development, and may still be at the level of drawings, simulations and component testing. At this time, the risks are extremely high, and the technical feasibility has not yet been verified at the most basic level.
2. System integration capabilities. If a rocket has already made its first flight, whether it is successful or unsuccessful, it means that this company has extremely complex system integration capabilities. A rocket has hundreds of thousands of components. System integration is not simply about piecing them together, but ensuring that they can work together in extreme environments (violent vibrations, drastic temperature changes, huge overloads). This involves countless interfaces, software codes, data transmission buses and synchronization timing. Being able to “save” so many systems and have them stand on the ground, successfully ignite, and leave the launch pad is a huge engineering miracle in itself. Moreover, from design, manufacturing, final assembly, testing, transportation, erection, filling, to final ignition and launch, this is a set of extremely complex and interlocking processes. Being able to perform a launch mission and complete this set of processes completely is sometimes as good as rocket technology itself.
3. Rocket program maturity. Looking at the configuration of the rocket, if it is a polished rocket and its capacity can meet the capacity requirements of the current large-scale constellation network, then it is definitely the best, indicating that this company has already occupied a huge advantage at the starting line. The bare-rod rocket does not have complex bundling and separation mechanisms, reducing a large number of connection, separation, vibration and fluid dynamics problems, which means fewer failure points, simpler testing procedures and higher inherent reliability. At the same time, the simple structure directly shortens the cycle of design, manufacturing, assembly and testing, which is crucial for commercial companies pursuing rapid iteration and cost control. And from the perspective of rocket recovery, the polished rod is also better. Musk’s Falcon Heavy was no longer used for missions after being shot several times. Instead, Falcon 9 has been used to perform launch missions. If it is a bundled solution, the system is generally more complex, and the development progress and risks are generally greater. The asymmetric forces, flutter, shock waves and collision risks caused by bundling are all difficulties in the design. Moreover, the control system is extremely complex and requires coordination of multiple thrust sources for precise attitude and trajectory control. At the same time, for the bundled configuration, a large number of ground joint tests and simulation verification are essential, which will directly lengthen the development cycle and push up the development cost.
4. Cost control. If it is a polished rocket and the engine is self-developed, then cost control may be better. The engine is one of the most expensive single machines in the entire rocket. If purchased from outside, the supplier’s pricing power will greatly erode profit margins. However, self-developed engines mean internalizing core technology and high-value components to control the largest cost item from the source. Then look at the total number of engines. The fewer engines, the simpler the thrust control system, the fewer pipeline valves, and the lower the test complexity and overhaul costs. Then let’s see if the engine can be mass-produced. Industrial mass production can very effectively reduce the cost of a single engine. Count the number of storage tanks again. The storage tank is the backbone of the rocket body structure. Each additional storage tank usually means that there may be one more level, which will result in an additional separation system and an independent control system, and the overall design will be more complex. In addition to the above, let’s look at the extent to which the company controls the independent research and development capabilities of other key subsystems (such as avionics, valves, GNC). Generally, the higher the vertical integration of the supply chain, the fewer links that are controlled by others, and the better the cost control and supply chain security. Let’s look at whether the rocket can be reused. No matter how low the cost of a disposable rocket is, its lower limit is fixed. Recycling and reusing rockets can spread the hardware cost over multiple launches, significantly reducing costs. Finally, let’s take a look at the rocket’s test and launch cycle. How long does it take from the time the rocket leaves the factory to launch? A shorter cycle means less cost.
5. Other factors. The first is the founder’s control over the direction of development. Does the founder have a deep understanding of rocket technology? Can he accurately position the market (whose money is he planning to make) and formulate a feasible development strategy accordingly? Can he attract top talents and obtain capital support? How do he bind top talents? Does he have a clear product roadmap and what is the speed of iteration. Secondly, look at whether you have control over the core infrastructure, which mainly refers to the test bed and launch station. Generally speaking, the test bench is the key to a rocket company’s qualitative transformation from 0 to 1. First, look at the “availability” issue, and then look at how much thrust the test bench can test the engine, and whether it can conduct full system testing. Regarding the launch station, look at whether you have your own launch station or rely on external launch stations. Owning your own station means greater autonomy and scheduling flexibility, while relying on external launch station resources may be restricted by others, but the starting cost is low. Finally, let’s take a look at the supply chain system. Rockets are integrated. Without a stable and reliable supply chain, large-scale production cannot be achieved. If core components such as engines, avionics, and valves are sourced from outside, there is a possibility that they will be “stuck” in the future. Whether large-scale procurement and strict quality control can be achieved is the key to judging whether costs can be continuously reduced and reliability guaranteed in the future. There are also important factors such as orders and financial status that prove the strength of a rocket company.
