Yesterday, Blue Origin successfully launched its second New Glenn rocket from LC-36 in Florida. While a second successful mission is enough to celebrate, what happened at the end of the mission is bigger news for the company and the industry.
The second launch of Blue Origin‘s New Glenn rocket looked picture perfect. Outside of handling some undisclosed issues with the rocket and/or its launch site, Blue Origin was able to launch its NASA payload out for a long journey to Mars.
It’s been nearly an entire year since Blue Origin launched its first New Glenn, longer than expected, but not at all a surprise given the company’s slower approach to things. This longer time between flights also led to a successful commercial mission for New Glenn, not an internal test flight like Flight 1.
On board were NASA’s ESCAPADE probes, designed to orbit Mars and help discover what caused it to lose its atmosphere. Also inside the payload was a ViaSat tech demonstrator for a future NASA communication project.
While the deployment of ESCAPADE and the success of the rocket’s ascent into space were the main goals, the real story was in New Glenn’s descent from space.
The booster, named “Never Tell Me The Odds,” successfully launched and released its second stage high above the Earth’s atmosphere. It then began its descent, with a hope and dream of making a propulsive landing on a barge some 600 km offshore.
If that sounds familiar, it’s because that’s the same process most SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets follow for every launch. Until yesterday, SpaceX was the only company capable of launching and propulsively landing an orbital rocket, but not anymore.
Blue Origin’s booster nailed the landing, nearly dead center of Jacklyn, the company’s “landing barge.” While a stretch goal for the mission, the success allows for more competition in the heavy-lift, reusable rocket game that SpaceX has dominated for so many years.
Space Explored’s Take
The success that Blue Origin saw yesterday in a project that has been worked on for years cannot be underestimated. They did what only one other company has been able to prove is doable, showing that SpaceX isn’t the only company with reusability success.
Now, that hasn’t hidden the potential threat SpaceX’s fully reusable Starship can pose to make partially reusable rockets like New Glenn obsolete. But for now at least, Blue Origin has just launched itself towards the top of the most attractive launch providers for future customers.
Launch rates will have to increase to be fully competitive with SpaceX. Remember that New Glenn still expends parts of its rocket like the second stage and fairings. SpaceX has economies of scale in this department to bring costs down for its second stage. When you have to launch 150+ rockets a year, you also have to build 150+ second stages a year, making them cheaper to produce. SpaceX also recovers its fairings and has seen great success in re-flying them.
So is this really competition against SpaceX? Remember that SpaceX actually only launches a few dozen commercial missions a year. The vast majority of its yearly launch rate can be attributed to Starlink. SpaceX will likely still be able to compete on cost; however, some theories have proposed that SpaceX’s launch costs could be lower, but no one is there to check them at the moment. If New Glenn is able to get close to the Falcon 9’s current cost per kilogram for launch, SpaceX could lower its price further to stay on top, if that theory is correct.
For now, Blue Origin just needs to focus on its current manifest, increase launch rates, and challenge SpaceX when the next round of NSSL launch contracts comes around. As the real loser will likely end up being ULA, not SpaceX, in this development.
