In 2025, for the first time, China’s commercial aerospace industry has undergone structural changes in multiple key dimensions: the regulatory system has taken shape, reusable rockets have entered engineering verification, the capital market has officially opened its entrance, and constellation construction and application have entered the realistic stress test stage. This is not a year in which “everyone moves up together”, but a year in which differentiation begins, elimination begins, and generational differences begin to widen.
This article does not select the “loudest” events, but the turning point events that truly changed the operational logic of commercial aerospace, resource allocation methods, and corporate survival conditions.
1
Commercial Space Division established
In November 2025, the National Space Administration officially established the Commercial Space Department, and commercial aerospace entered a new stage of full-time supervision and overall planning for the first time. This is not just “one more department”, but the first time that commercial aerospace has been officially included in the national engineering system from the “policy gray area”. Since then, the core issue faced by enterprises is no longer just “can it be done”, but whether it complies with the organizational methods and safety boundaries of the national engineering system.
2
Zhuque 3’s maiden flight
On December 3, 2025, the Zhuque-3 Yaoyi rocket was launched from the Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Test Area and successfully entered orbit but failed to recover the first stage. This is the first time that China has verified the entire system engineering path of a reusable rocket under real flight conditions. From this moment on, reusability is no longer a vision on PPT, but a technical threshold that all new-generation liquid rockets cannot avoid; the competitive dimension of rocket companies has also been upgraded from “can it fly” to “can it fly repeatedly, and can it be calculated in terms of cost?”
3
Commercial aerospace is included in the fifth set of listing standards on the Science and Technology Innovation Board
On June 18, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission restarted the fifth set of listing standards for the Science and Technology Innovation Board and clarified that commercial aerospace is applicable. Its core significance is not that “more companies can go public”, but to carve out a long-term financing channel that can be recognized by the system for high-investment, long-term commercial aerospace companies. Once the capital market is opened, industry competition will be upgraded from a “technical competition” to a “capital endurance race.”
4
Commercial space policies are intensively introduced
In 2025, commercial aerospace will usher in a “big year” for the introduction of policies. From the central to local governments, an institutional framework centered on “access-operation-guarantee-coordination” has gradually taken shape, and commercial aerospace has been clearly included in the long-term plan of the national aerospace system. The key to the policy change is not the intensity of subsidies, but the shift in goal from “supporting enterprises” to building an industrial system that can operate in the long term.
5
Changbajia makes its first flight and becomes the main arrow for constellation network
On February 11, 2025, the Changbajia rocket successfully made its first flight at the Wenchang Space Launch Site. This model is designed to cope with the high-intensity networking requirements of the GW constellation, filling the key gap of medium transport capacity. Before the maturity of private high-capacity rockets, the national team actually assumed the “backup role” of commercial constellations. Changbajia’s high-frequency launch is a system-level response to the launch needs of the constellation era.
6
China Star Network launches satellites faster
In 2025, after China Star Network completed the management adjustment, the pace of satellite launches has accelerated significantly. A total of 16 groups of 126 satellites have been launched throughout the year, and the batch insertion of low-orbit satellites into orbit has become normal. The GW constellation has shifted from “experimental launch” to “volume deployment”. This change is reversely reshaping the organization of rocket and satellite manufacturing and their supply chain.
7
Yuan Xin satellite failed twice
In 2025, the two tenders for Yuanxin satellite launch services failed due to less than three applicants, which directly exposed the shortage of commercial constellation launch capacity. This is not an accident, but a systematic mismatch between the speed of constellation construction and commercial launch capabilities in China’s current commercial aerospace industry.
8
Satellite applications receive national support
In 2025, the national policy level will clearly support the development of satellite applications, covering satellite Internet licenses, satellite IoT commercial trials and exploration of multiple application scenarios. The policy opens the door for the application side, but does not provide the bottom line for the business model. The focus of competition among satellite application companies has begun to shift from “whether it can be done” to “whether it has customers, whether it can continue to pay, and how big the scale is.” Companies that are unable to generate large-scale revenue will be the first to be under pressure in 2026-2027.
9
Differentiation of Capitalization Paths for Commercial Aerospace Enterprises
In 2025, commercial aerospace companies will begin to consider the international capital market as a realistic option. On January 27, NationStar Aerospace submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming a representative event of this trend. This marks the beginning of differentiation in the capitalization path of the industry: some companies choose to wait for the A-share system to mature, while others choose to enter the international capital market in advance. The choice of capital path is shaping the company’s survival space in the next five years in advance.
10
The application end is under collective pressure
In 2025, Aerospace Hongtu encountered operating difficulties and wage arrears, and moved its headquarters to Hebi, Henan. This incident reflects the common challenges faced by remote sensing and application-oriented aerospace companies in the closed-loop commercialization process. Reality is reminding the industry: policy support can only solve “whether there are projects”, but cannot solve “whether it can be profitable in the long term.” The core of competition on the application side is shifting from “the ability to acquire projects” to the ability to build stable and sustainable cash flow.
