Despite another relatively quiet month for launches, progress in the Chinese commercial space sector continues at pace. Two companies are progressing towards performing 10km hop tests of their prototype reusable vehicles and the race is on to become China’s first rocket to reach orbit and propulsively land its first stage.
The first batch of satellites for the planned G60 Qianfan, or Thousand Sails, mega constellation launched in early August. Meanwhile, the nation continues to advance its space program towards its goals of conducting a crewed mission to the Moon and returning samples from Mars in the near future.
Launch Cadence and the transition to liquid propellants
July had been as quiet as June was for launches out of China, with only three missions taking to the skies during the month. This was more noticeable compared to the nine launches seen back in May, with the end of that month seeing three launches of Galactic Energy’s Gushenxing-1, or Ceres-1, in a little over seven days. Unusually, the Gaofen-11 05 mission was the only orbital launch worldwide between the Falcon 9 anomaly in mid-July and its return to flight two weeks later.
Overall, China retains a 25% share of global orbital launches with 35 flights having been made so far this year, most of which have been successful. Back in March plans were announced to launch approximately 100 rockets this year, with a split between state-operated rockets and those from the commercial sector of roughly 70/30. China had launched 30 missions by the halfway point at the end of June.
China’s central government has traditionally assigned projects to its main contractors, in particular the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), which has indeed launched 70% of Chinese missions so far in 2024. Commercial companies are, however, finding increasing opportunities in the energized Chinese satellite launch market with funding coming from both the private sector and from the government at a more provincial level.
Tianlong-3 first stage during assembly (Credit: Space Pioneer)
The majority of the commercial vehicles China has launched in 2024 so far: OrienSpace’s Yinli 1 (Gravity 1), CAS Space’s Lijian-1 (Kinetica-1), China Rocket’s Jeilong 3, ExPace’s Kuaizhou, iSpace’s Shuang Quxian 1 (SQX-1, also known as Hyperbola-1), and Galactic Energy’s Gushenxing-1, have been solid-propellant rockets.
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Strides are, however, being taken toward the introduction of liquid-fueled rockets which also incorporate reusability. Several companies have vehicles in development that they hope will repeat the winning formula that has enabled SpaceX to significantly lower the cost to orbit while achieving a high launch cadence.
Space Pioneer launched China’s first commercially developed liquid-fuelled rocket, Tianlong-2, into orbit last April. This is the only time that Tianglong-2, which is powered by liquid kerosene and oxygen, has flown. Space Pioneer has turned its attention to the larger Tianlong-3, which will be twice as tall at 71 m and expected to carry a payload of up to 17,000 kg to low-Earth orbit (LEO) within a 4.2-m-diameter fairing.
Tianlong-3 was due to make its debut next month, however, a static fire mishap at the end of June unintentionally launched and destroyed the first stage test article. This raised concerns that the program could be significantly delayed but images shared at the end of July could suggest otherwise – these show a full-scale Tianlong-3 pathfinder sitting vertically on a transport erector in Haiyang. This vehicle had previously been expected to be the first to lift off from the new Commercial Launch Pad 2 at Hainan. When it does fly, it will attempt a landing on its maiden flight.
Nine Tianhuo-12 (TH-12) engines will power the first stage, which will guide itself back to either a droneship or landing pad using four grid fins before it executes a landing burn. The upper stage is powered by a vacuum-optimized variant of the TH-12.
Comparison of the next generation of liquid-propellant rockets emerging from China’s commercial sector. Left to right: ZhuQue-3, Tianlong-3, Yinli-2, SQX-3, Lijian-2, Xingyun-1, Zhishenxing-1. (Credit: Landspace, Space Pioneer, OrienSpace, iSpace, CAS Space, Deep Blue Aerospace, Galactic Energy)
Galactic Energy plans to fly around ten more times this year and is said to be currently developing an upgraded Gushenxing-2 variant which will increase the payload capacity of its predecessor. This month it shared a video of fairing separation tests for the forthcoming Zhishenxing-1 (Pallas-1) which remains on track for a debut potentially as early as this November.
The design of Zhishenxing-1 is similar to a Falcon 9, though smaller in scale, with grid fins and landing legs supporting a reusable first stage. With a height of 42 m, this two-stage medium-lift vehicle will have a fairing diameter of 3.15 m and will be capable of lifting an 8,000 kg payload into LEO, or 17,500 kg in a three-core configuration. The core stage will be powered by seven Cangqiong-50 (CQ-50) engines which use liquid kerosene and liquid oxygen as propellants, while the upper stage will utilize a vacuum-optimized variation.
Zhishenxing-1 is not the only design with a form factor resembling the Falcon 9. The Xingyun-1 follows the same approach and also has nine engines powering its booster. The successes of SpaceX in the West have both motivated and inspired the private Chinese space sector.
A newly founded company called “COSMOLEAP” pic.twitter.com/tF53bc9sGN
— China ‘N Asia Spaceflight
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(@CNSpaceflight) July 8, 2024
Renders of proposed new vehicles from Chinese organizations have been known to look familiar from time to time, taking inspiration from proven designs in the West. Brand new startup Cosmoleap raised eyebrows in July when it shared images that bear an uncanny resemblance to another super heavy lift vehicle being developed and flown in Boca Chica – including a tower to catch the booster.
Commercial operators prepare for higher-altitude hops
Two commercial Chinese organizations have been gearing up for high-altitude hop flights of prototype reusable vehicles that will test propulsive landing. Known as vertical takeoff and vertical landing (VTVL) tests, these demonstrations progressively demonstrate the vehicle’s abilities and readiness for operational missions. These are expected to be the highest altitude hops performed yet in China. While Space Pioneer’s Tianlong-3 appears to be progressing well, other private companies are gaining momentum as the race is on to become China’s first to launch and land an orbital rocket.
Landspace ZhuQue-3 prototype’s VTVL test from January 2024 reaching around 350m (Credit: Landspace)
Landspace’s ZhuQue-2 became the first liquid methane-fueled rocket to reach orbit last year. The launcher has flown only once since that test flight, carrying customer payloads last December. Its successor, ZhuQue-3, will use the same propellant combination but with a reusable first stage that will land on either a droneship or landing pad.
ZhuQue-3’s flight profile has similarities with the Falcon 9, using boostback and entry burns. This stainless steel vehicle will be 50% larger than its predecessor, standing over 76 m tall and with a 5.2-m-diameter fairing. With the capacity to lift 21,300 kg into LEO, the completed vehicle is not expected to be ready for an orbital launch until next summer.
Landspace had been preparing to execute a 10 km test of its ZhuQue-3 hopper prototype in late July. This was reported to have been delayed due to unfavorable weather, after which there has been no further update. The test vehicle performed a successful 100 m hop in January and has since been upgraded with actuating grid fins ahead of the forthcoming test.
Deep Blue Aerospace is also preparing for a 10 km hop test of its Xingyun-1 vehicle, also known as the Nebula-1, in the next month or two. Deep Blue successfully conducted a 100 m hop in 2021 with a subscale test article, which went on to achieve an altitude of one kilometer during another test the following year, albeit with a hard landing
Xingyun-1 will be smaller than Falcon 9 but similar in design, with a diameter of 3.35 m, a reusable first stage hosting nine engines, and one engine on the second stage. The vehicle will be able to carry 2,000 kg to LEO and will use liquid kerosene and liquid oxygen as propellants. The company also notes that an “improved version” will deliver up to 8,000 kg to LEO and has plans on its roadmap for a larger five-meter diameter Xingyun-2 that will improve that capacity further to 20,000 kg. This is unlikely to fly before early 2025 and is expected to be comparable to the ZhuQue-3.
Deep Blue Aerospace has conducted successful static fire tests of three of the Leiting-R1 (Thunder-R1) engines that will power both the prototype and subsequently the first orbital launch attempt for Xingyun-1. These included a full-duration burn covering the ascent and descent phases of flight and incorporated a single landing leg release test. A video of actuator tests for the grid fins has also been shared. Deep Blue is progressing toward its first orbital launch which is expected to occur from the new Hainan Commercial Launch Site in Wenchang by the end of this year and will include an attempt to recover the first stage.
DEEP-BLUE has completed a series of static fires of their Nebula-1 prototype with 3 Thunder-R1 kerolox engines. It will soon be transported to the launch site for a 5~10km VTVL test flight.https://t.co/ebSgxFhpZ0 https://t.co/RyfQUMsDOO pic.twitter.com/3lxJOMvib2
— China ‘N Asia Spaceflight
Fuelled by the success of VTVL testing carried out with its SQX-2 prototype late last year, iSpace moved on to developing the SQX-3 vehicle, which is expected to make its maiden flight next year from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, though the initial landing of a first stage may not be until 2026. Powered by nine JD-2 engines and standing 69 m tall, this also has a design that echoes SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. It is expected to be able to carry 8,600 kg of payload to LEO in its reusable configuration, with a three-core version able to carry 14,100 kg, increasing to 32,200 kg if it is expended. Video of a 100-second test has been shared as the engine heads into mass production.
Also in development is the Lijian-2 from CAS Space, following on from the Lijian-1 which made its third flight in January. The new vehicle will be nearly twice as tall but with the same 3.35 m fairing diameter. Unlike the solid propellants of its predecessor, the new rocket’s first stage will be powered by nine engines burning liquid kerosene and liquid oxygen. It is expected to be operational around 2028, with first stage recovery being achieved by means of a vertical landing.
— China ‘N Asia Spaceflight
OrienSpace, whose Yinli-1 rocket flew for the first and only time in January, has also switched from solid propellant to nine kerolox engines for its reusable Yinli-2. This is expected to fly in 2025; like many of the other rockets in development, it will use grid fins to guide its first stage’s descent before landing.
Chang Zheng 10 engines tested on a new stand
This month CASC successfully conducted a long-duration high-altitude simulation test of the liquid-hydrogen-and-liquid oxygen-powered YF-75E engine, in the first firing to take place on a recently-constructed test stand.
The YF-75E is an upgrade of the YF-75D used on the second stage of the Chang Zheng 5 (CZ-5) and will be used to perform trans-lunar injection on future crewed missions to the Moon. The successful outcome of this test verified the engine’s ability to work for the long periods in space required for its intended lunar missions.
June saw a static fire test of three of the YF-100K engines that will power the first stage of the human-rated Chang Zheng 10 (CZ-10) launch vehicle, which is targeting 2027 for its maiden flight. This rocket will carry taikonauts aboard the Mengzhou lunar spacecraft and, later, the planned Lanyue crewed lunar lander.
CZ-10’s third stage engine YF75E has completed high-altitude simulation hot fire test at the newly built vacuum simulation test bed. Via https://t.co/QuhG3Xc7tN pic.twitter.com/NYmqbzexpe
— Ace of Razgriz (@raz_liu) July 23, 2024
Having three cores, each with a diameter of five meters, standing over 93 m tall, and with a payload capacity of 70,000 kg to LEO or 27,000 kg to an Earth-lunar transfer orbit, CZ-10 is larger and more powerful than the CZ-5, which is the most powerful carrier rocket currently in service with China.
The CZ-5 has previously been used to launch each of the modules of the Tiangong space station, including Wentian two years ago this month, and more recently the uncrewed Chang’e-6 mission to the Moon. It is expected to continue launching Chang’e and Tianwen explorers to the Moon, Mars, and the Jovian system over the coming years, while the CZ-10 will focus on crew and cargo missions for China’s human spaceflight program. A two-stage, single-core, CZ-10A variant is also planned for LEO missions, including visits to China’s space station.
Chang Zheng 12 vehicle and Hainan Commercial Launch Site step toward launch readiness
The new YF-100K engines will also power the Chang Zheng 12 (CZ-12) rocket, which could make its maiden flight later this month. This is a two-stage expendable rocket whose first stage is powered by four of these liquid kerosene and liquid oxygen engines. The second stage has a pair of YF-115 engines, burning on the same propellants. CZ-12 will be capable of carrying 10,000 kg to LEO or 6,000 kg to Sun-synchronous orbit with both 4.2 and 5.2-meter payload fairings available.
Full walk through of CZ-12. video via https://t.co/rTP5jh5lJ8 pic.twitter.com/8NGvWEtd6i
— Ace of Razgriz (@raz_liu) July 16, 2024
Video was shared this month of a vehicle simulator being rolled out at the Commercial Space Launch Site in Hainan. It is anticipated that this will undergo fit testing ahead of final tests ahead of the vehicle’s debut which is due at the end of the month, although this date now seems ambitious. The 59-m-long CZ-12, which is being built by the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology, is likely to be the first rocket to launch from the recently completed Commercial Launch Pad 2 at Hainan.
This second pad at the new International Commercial Spacecraft Launch Center wrapped up construction in May. It is located on the island province of Hainan in South China, adjacent to the Wenchang Satellite Launch Center.
