SpaceX has been the de facto launcher for most of the world ever since the Falcon 9 started ramping up its launch cadence and lowering costs about a decade ago. While many companies say they compete with SpaceX, in reality, they are a monopoly for commercial launch; if you need something done quickly, it’s going to be on a Falcon 9. Is 2025 finally the year we see another option emerge?
Blue Origin begins New Glenn launches
Early Monday morning is seemingly the date Blue Origin is expecting to launch its first New Glenn rocket to orbit. The company has long been only a suborbital tourism launcher, and while great technology exists, it doesn’t bring in as much money as launch contracts do.
In 2025, Blue Origin is expecting to fly three pathfinder missions. Monday’s will be its first, carrying a Blue Ring pathfinder into orbit. Then, later this year, as many as two Blue Moon Mk1 pathfinders could launch to start the process of getting ready to fly crew-capable lunar landers for NASA’s Artemis mission.
Two other missions on the manifest will be the NASA ESCAPADE mission to Mars and likely at least one launch of Amazon Kuiper satellites.
Blue Origin likely has the best chance to bring serious competition to SpaceX’s Falcon family of rockets as New Glenn is both reusable and a heavy lifter. While prices are still rather unknown to the public, it will likely become the second choice for most national defense contracts once it begins flying flight-proven boosters.
Rocket Lab debuts Neutron
The next potential big player is Rocket Lab‘s Neutron rocket. Designed from the ground up to be reusable, the medium-lift launcher will fly exclusively out of Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia. This will give it an edge over other commercial launch companies that have all flocked to Florida’s Space Coast to host their launch sites.
Rocket Lab recently shared an update on the progress of its Neutron launch pad construction. Located next door to where its Electron lifts off, it dwarfs what Rocket Lab has built there.
The company tries not to announce milestones too early, and we have yet to see a first launch date shared. However, teams are well underway building and testing a rocket to fly later this year.
Can ULA really launch 20+ times?
ULA is hoping to have one of the most launch-packed years it has ever had. With about 20 Vulcans on about nine Atlases on the manifest, it will be a packed year between it, Blue Origin, and SpaceX at the Cape.
But can ULA actually hit that launch goal? The company has been in the single digits of yearly launch rates for the last few years. There is a lot more to just having a new rocket that makes launch rates increase. Having an experienced team will be key to that as well.
ULA seems to be serious about upping its launch rates and bringing in more commercial contracts. However, it still seems mostly focused on the defense market, something that might hurt them if they don’t focus on reducing launch costs.
Is there anyone in Europe?
There are four companies to keep watch on in 2025 that could see great progress toward bringing new life to Europe’s commercial launch market. First is MaiaSpace, owned by ArianeGroup, which is aiming to begin hot fire tests this year. Unlike ArianeSpace, MaiaSpace is building a partially reusable rocket that could launch by the end of this year.
Next is Orbex, which is stopping work on its spaceport construction in Sutherland in favor of one in the Shetland Islands. This will help the company reach its goal of launching its first rocket in 2025. Also launching from the Shetlands is Rocket Factory Augsburg. RFA suffered a loss of its first rocket during a preflight test last year. The hope is that RFA will be able to get another rocket ready to fly this year, as it was one of the companies furthest ahead before the accident.
The last company is HyPrSpace, which has already begun hot fire tests of its engines last year. In 2025, it is expected to see plenty more tests and rocket construction as it aims for an early 2026 debut.
