On June 12, 2025, Wang Long, founder of Nihao Space, gave a special report on “Going Overseas – A Must for Chinese Commercial Aerospace Enterprises” at the International Cooperation Sub-forum of the “2025 Remote Sensing·Communication Innovation Conference” hosted by Changguang Satellite. The feasibility of Chinese commercial aerospace enterprises going overseas was analyzed.
Today, let’s take a look at the content of this report.
01
Development status of China’s commercial aerospace enterprises
Before analyzing the prospects of going overseas, let us first briefly review the development status of domestic commercial aerospace companies.
After 10 years of development, the commercial aerospace industry has formed a complete industrial chain and entered a stage of rapid development.
In 2024, the number of private rocket launches will be 12, accounting for 18%. In 2024, China will put a total of 257 spacecraft of various types into orbit, including 201 commercial satellites, accounting for 78.2%. There is strong demand for commercial launches. At the same time, eight recyclable rocket models are expected to make their first flights in 2025. In the rocket launch market, commercial launch has become the most important growth pole for China’s aerospace industry.
In the past 10 years, my country’s low-orbit satellite Internet industry has completed technological breakthroughs and verifications. In 2024, Star Network and Qianfan will start construction at the same time. The two will launch a total of 124 satellites (90 satellites in the Qianfan constellation and 34 satellites in the Star Network). It is expected to usher in explosive growth in the next 3-5 years.
Overall, China’s commercial aerospace industry is on the eve of an explosive period. Can the current production capacity construction and service capabilities meet the needs of China’s commercial aerospace market in the future?
02
China’s commercial aerospace future production capacity planning
Thanks to China’s complete industrial chain capabilities and national system, China has established a complete commercial aerospace industry chain in the past 10 years. Key technologies such as recyclable rockets and laser communications have completed the initial accumulation and entered a stage of rapid development. And a huge industrial layout has been formed, including the Beijing rocket R&D industry cluster, the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta commercial aerospace manufacturing industry clusters, the western rocket power R&D industry cluster, and coastal space launch industry clusters such as Wenchang and Haiyang in Hainan. According to Nihao Space statistics, there are currently 38 commercial rocket companies in China’s commercial aerospace market, and as many as eight recyclable rockets will make their first flights in 2025. There are a total of 25 rocket assembly plants in place across the country, with an annual output of at least 326 rockets of various types. In terms of satellite manufacturing, a total of 58 satellite assembly factories have been planned in China. After all satellite factories reach capacity, the production capacity will increase to 6,820 satellites per year. In addition, according to Nihao Space’s statistics on China’s commercial aerospace constellation construction needs, China currently has a total of 100 satellite constellations planned, and plans to launch more than 60,000 satellites. Among them, China’s satellite demand is roughly about 2,000 satellites per year from 2025 to 2027. This number will increase to about 3,100 satellites from 2027 to 2030, and about 4,600 satellites from 2030 to 2035. According to one rocket with 20 satellites, a maximum of about 230 launch missions need to be carried out each year. Regardless of rockets or satellites, domestic commercial aerospace production capacity planning is about 30-40% higher than actual demand. As the world’s factory, China’s manufacturing added value will account for about 30% of the world’s total in 2023, higher than the United States, Japan, and Germany combined. It can be seen that because the planned production capacity far exceeds market demand, the satellite application market is small, and the industry as a whole has not yet formed a commercial closed loop. There is an urgent need to develop new application scenarios and new markets. my country’s commercial aerospace companies must “go global.”
03
Global commercial aerospace market analysis
So, is there sufficient market demand abroad? What competitors will we face in foreign markets?
According to a report by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), as of 2024, approximately 2.6 billion people (28%) around the world will still not be connected to the Internet. Even in developed regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, only 50% of the population in rural areas uses the Internet.
In addition, with the development of human society, especially the development of ocean transportation, clean energy, low-altitude economy and other businesses, people’s demand for network coverage in remote areas and low-altitude areas has become increasingly obvious. At present, the global terrestrial network covers only 20% of the global land area. The low-altitude network coverage rate between 600-3000 meters is almost 0.
With the rise of Starlink, many regions and countries around the world have successively proposed plans to build low-Earth orbit satellite constellations, planning to launch more than 30,000 satellites. In addition to European and American countries, countries such as South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and Rwanda are also actively planning constellation plans and have launched verification satellites.
In terms of rocket launch services, in the face of SpaceX’s monopoly, countries around the world are also actively deploying launch capabilities. Countries such as Germany, Australia, the United Kingdom, France, and Spain are also beginning to develop launch vehicle technology.
As the Trump administration proposes to impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods, this move will cause the cost of all SpaceX launch services to increase by 10%. Whether due to development safety or cost considerations, the demand for the rocket manufacturing industry in countries around the world will increase in the future.
Overall, the demand for the construction of the global commercial aerospace industry is very strong, and there is “diversified” demand, and the market space is vast. As a business with inherently “global attributes”, commercial aerospace has great prospects for going overseas.
As for the main competitors faced by Chinese commercial aerospace companies, they are mainly concentrated in established aerospace companies in North America and Europe. According to different business types, it can be divided into:
Main competitors in the launch business: SpaceX, Rocket Lab, etc., with lower launch prices and high maturity;
Main competitors of satellite Internet: SpaceX, Amazon, Oneweb, etc. The constellation has been deployed, there are generation differences in satellites, and the application of key technologies is mature;
Main competitors of remote sensing services: Maxar, Planet Lab, etc. Maxar has won the high-end market with a high resolution of 0.3 meters, and Planet Lab can update it every day around the world.
Comprehensive comparison: my country’s commercial aerospace industry has a generation gap with Europe and the United States in terms of product performance of recyclable rockets, communications, and remote sensing satellites, and prices are relatively high; however, with the support of the entire industry chain capabilities, the overall service capabilities and prices are highly cost-effective, forming the advantage of “low cost for the entire industry chain.”
04
The history of commercial aerospace going overseas
Since the establishment of the Great Wall Corporation in 1980, China has been engaged in foreign economic and trade business in the aerospace industry, which has a history of 45 years.
On October 26, 1985, China announced that the Long March rocket had entered the international market. Great Wall Company was responsible for market development and obtained the exclusive rights to operate international launch services and satellite cooperation.
On June 16, 1987, China’s ninth returnable satellite, launched by the Chang-II Pro rocket, successfully carried two microgravity test devices of the French company Matra and returned safely on August 10 of the same year. This is the first time that my country has provided on-board on-board services to foreign users.
On April 7, 1990, the Changsan launch vehicle successfully launched the “Asia-1” satellite of the American Hughes Company at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center. China officially entered the international commercial satellite launch market.
As of 2024, Great Wall Company has completed a total of 74 international commercial satellite launch cooperation (including 14 in-orbit deliveries of communication satellites and 5 in-orbit deliveries of remote sensing satellites), and has provided rocket ride-sharing services for 29 international spacecraft (including 2 in-orbit deliveries of remote sensing satellites).
From the perspective of business types, the overseas business formats are diversified, including space launch, ride-sharing, satellite development, and overall on-orbit delivery business on the manufacturing side; as well as low-orbit communications, remote sensing data delivery, and traditional satellite radio and television on the service side.
In terms of market regional distribution, China’s commercial aerospace manufacturing and service business is still mainly exported to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South America, Africa and other Belt and Road countries.
05
Suggestions for commercial aerospace companies to go overseas
1. Select the appropriate regional market as the entry point
In the future, commercial aerospace will still need to make full use of our influence in the “Belt and Road” countries, as well as the existing strength such as the ASEAN Satellite Remote Sensing Application Center, give full play to China’s commercial aerospace advantages in manufacturing and application, lead the formulation of remote sensing data exchange agreements among ASEAN countries, and seize the “Belt and Road” market.
2. Give full play to the value of the entire industry chain, provide diversified services, and create “system” advantages
In the conflict between India and Pakistan, the excellent performance of the J-10C confirmed the huge advantages of having a full industrial chain system in practical applications. When the aerospace industry goes overseas, we should also leverage our full industry chain advantages to provide global users with diversified services ranging from simulation design, component production, launch, on-orbit delivery, data services, and algorithm applications. Multi-industry collaboration should create a “systematic” overseas commercial aerospace industry.
3. “Group” to go overseas
1) Joint overseas initiative. Information exchange: Build an information sharing mechanism and build an open and transparent information exchange platform. Resource sharing: Channels, technology, talents and other resources are shared to achieve complementary advantages. Strengthen the brand: always adhere to the principle of quality first and reputation first, and promote international cooperation.
2) Create an overseas alliance. Give full play to China’s commercial aerospace “low-cost throughout the industry chain” advantage, share overseas resources and technical capabilities, provide better services for overseas markets, and open up the international market with better services and higher quality.
3) Explore solutions for typical satellite application scenarios. Targeting typical application scenarios such as agriculture, animal husbandry, urban transportation, trunk logistics, ocean communications, and urban planning, we jointly provide complete solutions including program design, infrastructure construction, data collection, and algorithm application, and explore customized services for users with different business needs in regions at different stages of development.
Summarize
After 10 years of development, China’s commercial aerospace industry has become ready to go overseas, and various demands in the international aerospace market have gradually exploded. With the advantage of “low cost throughout the industry chain” and the general trend of Chinese companies expanding into the global market, going overseas has become a must for Chinese commercial aerospace companies.
