On July 23, 2025, Shanghai Yuanxin issued a bidding announcement for the 2025 launch vehicle service procurement project. Package 2 is a three-time, one-rocket, 18-star launch service. The service/delivery period is from the date of contract signing to March 2026. Let’s talk briefly about package 2. Tender details
1.Requirements
(1) The one-rocket 18-star launch service requires that the bidding product must have a carrying capacity of not less than 4.8 tons in a near-polar orbit of 800 kilometers.
(2) Commit to completing the first flight of this model before the end of December 2025.
2. Price
The maximum price is RMB 50,000 per kilogram including tax. The project is delivered in orbit, and the cost includes meeting service usage and acceptance requirements and completing all related services (including launch site fees and third-party liability insurance fees, etc.).
3. Bid opening time: 10:30 on August 11, 2025
Influencing factors
I will mainly talk about private rocket companies and leave the national team aside for the time being. Bidding products are mainly limited by rocket capacity, launch price, development progress, and launch resources. The following is a comprehensive analysis of the products that may participate in the bidding from these aspects. 1. Development progress
Among the rockets under development, only those that have undergone large-scale ground tests will be analyzed, because only these products are likely to complete the goal of first flight before the end of 2025.
There are roughly the following rockets: Tianlong 3, Zhuque 3, Lijian 2, Hyperbola 3, Pallas 1, Gravity 2, and Yuanxingzhe 1.
2. Rocket transportation capacity The launch service requires that the bidding products must have a carrying capacity of not less than 4.8 tons in a near-polar orbit of 800 kilometers. Among the private rockets that currently have successful flight experience, the ones with the highest capacity are Suzaku-2E and Gravity-1. The data are as follows:
Zhuque 2E: SSO (500 km) transport capacity 4 tons;
Gravity One: SSO (500 km) with a transport capacity of 4.2 tons.
From the perspective of transportation capacity, these two rockets definitely do not meet the requirements. Therefore, for the products of private enterprises, we can only place our hope on the rockets under development.
The capacity data of the rockets under development are as follows:
Tianlong-3: Sun-synchronous orbit payload (500 km): 10~17 tons
Zhuque-3: Low Earth orbit payload: 11.8 tons (basic type, not recovered)
8 tons (basic type, recycling in navigation area)
Lijian-2: Sun-synchronous orbit payload (500 km): 8 tons
Sun-synchronous orbit payload (700 km): 5.6 tons
Hyperbolic 3: Sun-synchronous orbit payload (500 km): 6.2 tons (recovered under route)
Sun-synchronous orbit payload (500 km): 10.4 tons (not recovered)
Pallas 1: Sun-synchronous orbit payload (700 km): 3 tons
Gravity 2: Sun-synchronous orbit payload (500 km): 15 tons (not recovered)
Sun-synchronous orbit payload (500 km): 11.9 tons (recovery in navigation area)
Sun-synchronous orbit payload (500 km): 20 tons (plus boost, no recovery)
Yuanxingzhe 1: Low Earth orbit payload (1100 km): 7 tons
Therefore, purely from the perspective of transportation capacity, it may be unlikely that Pallas 1 will participate.
3. Launch resources
There is a key piece of information in the bidding content: a commitment to complete the first flight of this model before the end of December 2025.
Achieving this goal will not only be affected by the development progress, but also by the launch resources. Simply put, it is the launch station.
To complete the first flight mission before the end of December 2025, either the rocket company will build a dedicated launch station in Jiuquan, or it will have to launch from Hainan Commercial Development Zone.
The only two companies that have built liquid launch stations in Jiuquan are Blue Arrow Aerospace and Tianbing Technology, corresponding to Zhuque 3 and Tianlong 3 respectively.
The rockets launched in Hainan Shangfa will face a very critical problem. So far, Hainan Shangfa has fired 2 arrows this year, one in February and one in July. There are more than 5 months in between. From now to the end of December, there are only 5 months left. In these 5 months, Hainan Shangfa can fire a few more arrows, and there are other reasons. Two factors, one is the coordination of the launch site. After all, StarNet is a shareholder of Hainan Commercial Development. As the progress of the StarNet mission becomes increasingly tense, how much support capability will Hainan Commercial Development have allocated to the Qianfan Constellation? The second is quality and safety risks. “New rockets, new teams, new mechanisms” combined with private enterprise rockets will create what kind of sparks for us.
4. Launch price
One is the price of this bidding, and the other is the price of long-term development in the future. Among the above rockets, Lijian 2 purchased the YF-102 engine from the Sixth Institute of Aerospace Science and Technology. As the production capacity of the Sixth Institute is also relatively tight, the purchase price can be imagined. Moreover, Lijian-2 is in CBC configuration, and Hyperbola-3 is also in CBC configuration. Compared with the polished rod rocket, the main problem of the CBC configuration is subsequent recycling. Judging from foreign experience, the Falcon Heavy, which is also in the CBC configuration, was launched only a few times, and then the Falcon 9 was used with the polished rod. Therefore, in the long run, how to recycle Lijian 2 and Hyperbola 3 will have a great impact on the price.
